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JEast

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Posts posted by JEast

    Current market price of FFH

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    I have not had a post for Fairfax in some time as the story and balance sheet has become somewhat more transparent.  However and for those that say that they have held FFH for over 10 years, does one not remember the $1B with a (B) mark-to-market loss on bonds previously?  If one does remember, most knew then that book value was not as stated so why should we think BV is what is stated now given a large mark down on insured bonds.

     

    Do market participants now know this, or is FFH truly overvalued?  A short-term setback on any cap loss will hurt, but surely welcomed given that most renewals were on 4/1 for Japanese P/C.  We should know or be able to ask in just a few weeks.  One long-term holder of FFH would surely assume that some cap losses will be offset by selling the rest of ICO after it is up another 40-50% since we sold half the position earlier this year.  What else may have been sold in 1st?

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Balance sheet focused analysis

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Is this what they call a value trap???

     

    I spoke with Martin Whitman a few years ago about value traps.  In general, he said that all deep value investors always buy value traps.  They might be traps, they may not.  However and with the right amount of margin of safety -- there is no such thing as a value trap.

     

    Though CSWC is 0.x of BV at $90, it was also 0.x of BV at $65.  Some call this the holding company discount.

     

    Turn it any way you want, value investing is the ugly duckling of the wealth management profession.  Ugly and unwanted in the sense that what we practice is the willingness to patiently defer gratification, be contrary, and act unconventionally value trap or not.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Bottom just fell out of japan?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    On second thought ...

    Just a little more education for those that are interested.

     

    Americans living near coal-fired power plants are exposed to higher radiation doses than those living near nuclear power plants that meet government regulations. This ironic situation remains true today and is addressed in this article.

     

    http://www.ornl.gov/info/ornlreview/rev26-34/text/colmain.html

     

     

    In one of the toughest coal regulatory areas on the plant, what does this say for the folks in non-regulated areas?

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

     

     

     

    Bottom just fell out of japan?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I take a somewhat cynical and contrarian view on the current media spin cycle for radiation disaster.  From my chair, the longer the story runs, the more likely that things are going to be acceptable.  One - recognize that this particular design for each reactor is 40% the size of a normal reactor.  Two - power was cut off and though one could have a catalyst reaction, inertia says that it is normally going to cool on its own (relatively).

     

    This is not to pooh-pooh the event, but to take an objective view from afar.  Of course if I where the one next door, I may have a different view!

     

    I also take some issue of what is behind the spin.  Did the media pushers forget about the middle east and north Africa?  And is it not ironic that Germany now used this opportunity to shutdown their nuclear program.  What are they thinking?  Do the Germans really what to depend more on the Russians for imported gas!!

     

    The battle is on for the public mind.  Now the push comes for scare mongering the California populace.  Any agenda behind this?

     

    Oh well, use your own judgement.  Next week the story may turn to a 24hr cycle on the no fly zone in Libya.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    40% of Public Debt Issuers Failed to File in 2009

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    This story is a little dated, but found it interesting.  Interesting in the fact that 40% of public debt issuers (mainly municipalities) failed to file financial reports in 2009.  This is of concern for holders of the debt, but if you have a BRK policy against default like some holders - you can sleep well.

     

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704013604576104490177188326.html

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

     

    There's Always Something To Do: The Peter Cundill Investment Approach

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Just finished reading this fine addition to the Graham & Dodd margin of safety library.

    Peter's journal of 'Buying a Dollar for Forty Cents' is now available at both Amazon and Overstock.

     

    http://www.amazon.com/Theres-Always-Something-Do-Investment/dp/0773538631/ref=cm_cr-mr-title

    http://www.overstock.com/Books-Movies-Music-Games/Theres-Always-Something-to-Do-Paperback/5595689/product.html

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

     

    Value investor conference

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I too have been to several of Bob's conferences when they were in LA for the timing of the Wesco meeting. 

     

    Due to the recent buyout, Bob is moving the conference to Omaha as he is now teaching an investment course there.

    http://omaha.com/article/20101121/MONEY/711219945

     

    In all, this is by far one of the better conferences as no one is trying to sell or pitch you anything and the speakers are in the top decile.  Plus as mentioned it is usually limited to 100 persons.

     

     

    Cheers

    Jeast

    Richard Koo's Latest Presentation

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    For some of the new members, Richard Koo's two previous books are excellent primers on the subject.

     

    Balance Sheet Recession

    http://www.amazon.com/Balance-Sheet-Recession-Uncharted-Implications/dp/0470821167/ref=sr_1_2?ie=UTF8&qid=1298385099&sr=8-2

     

    Holy Grail Macroeconomics

    http://www.amazon.com/Holy-Grail-Macroeconomics-Revised-Recession/dp/0470824948/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&qid=1298385099&sr=8-1

     

    I prefer the first as the most lucent.

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Real inflation at 10%

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    One sees inflation where they look is the general rule.  I would agree that food and energy are generally up, but the WSJ attempts to poo-poo the hedonics Mac example.  Would anyone really want to pay 50% off for an '03 computer model?

     

    As a side note: I find it truly amazing that I am buying airline tickets these days for lower prices than I was back in the late '80s!!  That is even with fuel surcharges.

     

    Zero coupon bonds anyone?

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Do You Really Need This?

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    As a side note, Starbucks does not have a 'small' cup on their menu. 

     

    If you want to purchase a small cup of coffee, you must ask for a 'short cup'.

     

    I believe I am the only patron at our local establishment to order such an odd creature.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    India - Important Next Two Months

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    In the next few months, leaders from the US, France, Russia and China will be visiting and to surely be signing big deals.  Of some interest is the potential discussions and change in the FDI limit.

     

    http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/India-At-Centre-Of-Global-Biz-Politics/articleshow/6849984.cms[/size]]

     

    The US, on the other hand, could look at increased market access for insurance and retail, apart from the lucrative defence contracts. According to industry sources, there is also a lot of interest in defence jointe ventures and the US could seek an increase in the FDI limit from 26% to 49%.

     

    "When President Obama lands in India and senses the excitement and buzz taking place in the world's largest free-market democracy, accompanied by the largest US trade and business delegation in US history, every boardroom in America will sit up and take notice, and ask: 'Why aren't we doing more in India?'

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Virginia Value Investor Conference

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The Office of Thrift Supervision is scheduled to close its doors in July 2011, but become part of a larger/different organization of the Frank/Dodd bill.  As such, many want to demutualize before new management comes in :)

     

    http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_43/b4200038824455.htm

     

    This is the same idea as back in the '90s when thrifts started to demutalize.  This also plays into Christopher Whalen's numbers that large bank business models are dead or dying.  These thrifts will be small and possible very low liquidity for the potential small investor take advantage of.  So keep an eye in your community or get a service like SNL to help spot them.

     

    http://www.snl.com/Sectors/fig/BanksAndThrifts.aspx

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

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