Jump to content

JEast

Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    750

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by JEast

    FFH Pre-Dinner Report

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Pub Reporter Norm  --  Thanks :)

     

    Also an additional thanks to our surprise guests, which was much unexpected as all the FFH management team has been so gracious with there time in answering our sometimes oddball questions.  Sammy - be prepared because we will soon corner you and start peppering you with questions as the Asia business continues to grow :)

     

    Yes the event was reminiscent of the intimacy of the dinner/pints from a few years ago, but the growth was inevitable.  The take away I have is that the risk is somewhat reduced from the 20% fluctuations that we used to have in FFH share price as our shareholders are a much more intelligent and more knowledgable shareholders now.  We may only have one more year in the Roy Thompson Hall as we were nearly elbow to elbow this year.

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    OSTK Below $5 ??

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    This is in the general discussion as it is not an idea, just an observation.  It would appear that OSTK is unfortunately going below $5 which will only place more pressure on the stock as some funds bail. 

     

    I am a fan, and still use the site to buy stuff.  I would like to think that the stock and I can at some point in the future be friends again.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Paulson files 13D on HIG

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    For those that are in the camp that the Japanese Yen will weaken at some point, HIG+ appears to be a logical (and cheap) choice.  If the Yen weakens as much as some folks are predicting, then the annuity issue that is a big concern today should slowly disappear.  Reminds me of the Brouhaha of Fairfax's recoverables concern.  Of course if the Yen strengthens, the problem gets worse.

     

    In all, given a possible semi-hard market coming (or is here already) should bode well to steady the ship.  Toss in a weakening Yen, the Nikkei will rally and the annuity issue goes to the back burner.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Bye Bye Blackberry

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Not to pile on the RIMM discussion, but I recently was informed that a very large corporate customer just told all managers they were switching to iPhones.  This is curious to me because this same company's upper management pushed back for 2 years in '04-'06 before the RIMM rollout.  First the rollout started slowly, then a full push out to managers in '07.  (see RIMM price chart)  Now, a complete abandonment of RIMM for APPLE.  Contagion, mass psychology, or just that much of a superior performance increase??

     

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/adamthierer/2012/04/01/bye-bye-blackberry-how-long-will-apple-last/

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    A Natural Gas Disconnect

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The current natural gas situation does present a thought provoking conundrum.  On the one hand, gas supplies have exceeded even the most optimistic views of only a year ago form most experts.  And on the other, per our guests at our pre-dinner last year suggested all-in prices should be in the neighborhood of $5-$6 range.  As such, you have seen some production reduced, but not all as the Globe article identified.

     

    The US and Canada are a captured market as we can not get the gas out.  In Japan, natural gas prices are near $18.  LNG tankers??

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Nature Continues To Always Surprise

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Due to flooding in Australia, spiders have moved 'way' above ground.

    Try walking the dog thru the pictures from National Geographic.

     

    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2012/03/pictures/120307-spiderwebs-australia-floods-wagga-wagga-world-science/#/spider-webs-australia-floods-dogs_49727_600x450.jpg

     

    It reminds of how old timers in town make a mark on a building where the highest flood was and think that is it - until its not.

    A nice investing reminder.

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Chou Funds 13-F

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I read the RSH conference call and it was a difficult quarter/year to say the least.  I know Francis loves his retailers, but given that RSH has leveraged up their Target relationship at the expense of their own retail, it is hard for me to see the value.  RSH stores have always been dogs in my neck of the woods, but I guess they are/were good for selling low-credit phones via Sprint.  Once Sprint tightened their credit standards, boom, there went the business model.  Add in that they can not add much to supplemental buys at their Target kiosks with iPhones and other carriers, whats left?  However, if it gets much cheaper, than its worth a closer dive down look.

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Fairfax 4th Q Results

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    I appreciate the comment, but I am not second guessing H&W as I have the same view.  I am first guessing the approach as the balance sheet is now big enough that we shareholders do not need to be as hedged as much as we once needed to be.  Just shades of grey on the approach.

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Fairfax 4th Q Results

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Looks like roughly a $300M gain on the Treasuries sold in the 4th.  Glad to see that some was booked, but was not enough to escape the market rebound and the resultant mark-to-market losses.

     

    Uccmal - I like your point if FFh writes double the business in the next couple of years and invests double the amount they have into cheap equities the hedges will be much less than the current 104%.  --  I would agree and would like for that to happen but given H&W's view, I am sure they will hedge along with their investments.  I would prefer to restrain a little on the hedging, but understand their position.  I think FFH us shareholders are protected enough with a 50-75% hedge.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    China's Real Estate Bubble ??

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Though this subject has been discussed on several threads, I thought an individual thread may be worthy.

     

    We know the theme from Chano's 'China Syndrome' to H&W's concern about a potential real estate bubble.  However and in the disconfirming mode, I have spoke to a few China nationals that discussed something that I had not recognized before.  That is who owns the land?  Much like in Mexico when an expat buys land, they are only buying a 100-year lease.  My China nationals explain to me that in China all the land is owned by the government and you only buy a 70-year lease even if you are a national. 

     

    Of course the market for condos and such may have bubbled up, but is the real estate actually bubbled over?  And if so, will the government actually allow it to deflate.  I suspect, and suspect only, that the bigger fear is the recapitalization of the banks in the provinces and the unintended consequences of taking capital out of the system (e.g. the money velocity slows).  I see some select public opportunities in Singapore, Hong Kong, and Australia, but have pause about currency and impact to Asian equities.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Massive Problems in China!

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Many on the board were indeed cautious of China for some time.  Many banks in China that publicly report, are leveraged 100-to-1 or more.  In essence, many that lend in the provinces via government support are bankrupt though not technically bankrupt.  I have read that some are even leveraged 500-to-1 or more.  And these are the ones that publicly report!

     

    However, when you can print your own money this may be extended for some time.

     

    Cheers

    JEast

×
×
  • Create New...