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JEast

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Posts posted by JEast

    A LEAP Call That Pays You While You Wait (HRP-D)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Yes - I do have a smile on my face and glad you were able to participate.

     

    My normal game plan for selling is usually sell if you find something extremely better or that if it is near full to at full value. Currently with HRP-D, it is indeed nearing full value, but the dividend appears to be safe. Tough choice if you want to sell something for a short-term gain that would still yield you 15%+ for a few more years (depending on your entry price). For now I am holding as most of my "on deck" candidates are just outside my margin of safety. Damn this strong rally :)

     

    As a side note, I am surprised that some have started following SSW since when I originally brought it up there was silence. I like SSW more than HRP-D, but it also carries a little more market risk, but I do not believe it carries any excess investment risk at these prices.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Florida Exodus: Rising Taxes Drive Out Residences

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    As Munger and Buffett tell us, you must ask the next question. Compared to what.

     

    There is usually a big difference between cause and effect. I would suspect that many just delayed their move to Florida and what would the number really be if one removed the deaths from the low number of 27,000 for those three huge counties.

     

    As for taxes, the state still has no income tax and insurance premiums have come down. Personally my premium decreased a whopping 27% this year.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Deflation Worsens in Japan

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Nice "counterpunch" article.

     

    Not to beat this subject over everyone's head, but noticed this article today in the WSJ about -- Bottled-Water Price War Heats Up as Demand Falls.

     

    "It used to be $6.99 for a 24-pack, then $5.99," said Michael Bellas, chief executive of New York consulting firm Beverage Marketing Corp. "But $2.49? That's the lowest I've seen."

     

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125167502443470973.html

     

    I have always been curious about the sometimes obsession with designer bottle water and the price people were willing to pay for it over the years. Possibly connected to the social proof and commitment mental models (i.e. $5 for a cup of Starbucks coffee) and now the social proof is fading as we all become a little more frugal.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

     

    Deflation Worsens in Japan

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    As I mentioned at the beginning, it is a continuing battle of deflation versus inflation. In my neck of the woods, I still see prices going down from real estate, car prices, restaurants, to even groceries running sales. Though I have the money, I also still find myself looking at Ebay and Craigslist on occasion.

     

    In the short run, the government can print all the money in the world, but in Irving Fisher's terms if there is no velocity to that money, there will be no inflation as people are either becoming prudent or paying off debt. Competition is tough and business is trying to keep sales up, but its difficult and margins are going down though the market has been going up.

     

    I heard a talking head the other day say that the Russell 2000 Growth had a P/E of over 100 now. Maybe a little misleading, but still a curiosity to make one think.

     

    Side note: kawikaho, A few years ago I read a very nice book that addresses your point very well. "The Geography of Thought: How Asians and Westerners Think Differently."

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Seaspan Insider Buys

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    I would agree that Seaspan is the gold standard in the container ship lease side, but they are not out of the woods quite yet. However, if one takes a much longer term view of say 2-3 years, this one may have good times ahead. This view is somewhat tempered and balanced by the possible chance deflation aspects though. Also, all Seaspan's customers are having extreme difficulty, but are still currently paying the bills on time. -- Long Seaspan

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Deflation Worsens in Japan

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    In the continuing battle of deflation versus inflation, this is a somewhat scary fact reported by the BBC.

     

    Other figures released in Tokyo show core consumer prices fell by 2.2% in July from a year earlier, the fastest pace on record. And analysts expect prices to fall further.

     

    http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8225885.stm

     

    Maybe the bond traders have it right based on the very successful bond auctions recently and the talking heads have it wrong again.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Notes to Security Analysis - 2nd and 3rd editions

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    If one has not read any edition, one should also take a look at the new 6th Edition which I just finished. The introductory sections by guest writers of Warren Buffett, Seth Klarmen, James Grant, Howard Marks and others are small gems in themselves.

     

    Plus this edition is somewhat condensed by the editors and includes an attached CD if you would like to read further on the subject.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Jeremy Grantham's latest letter

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    As always, an interesting read.

     

    However, the most interesting part, in my view, was in the footnotes and his reference to the items below. As I am an admirer of all things written by Garrett Hardin, his reference to Living within Limits was of some insight. It is also a Munger recommendation.

     

    Living within Limits: Ecology, Economics, and Population Taboos

    http://www.amazon.com/Living-within-Limits-Economics-Population/dp/0195093852/ref=cm_cr-mr-title

     

    The Most IMPORTANT Video You'll Ever See

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Toronto Hotel

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Yes, I guess that is why am not a big fan of the Priceline types as one never really knows where they are going to stay. For me, I purposely paid the extra $29 to stay away from Union Square so to be closer to China Town and still be in a high quality establishment.

     

    On occasion you get great deals, but then again, you usually get what you pay for.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Toronto Hotel

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Do not be hesitant to look on brand name websites as many are now providing pay-in-advance discounts to counter the plethora of website search engines like Priceline and others. For example, I recently reserved a room in downtown San Francisco for $99 at a Hilton. However, if you miss your dates, you lose your cash and room.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Fairfax buys remaining Advent shares

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Don't get too excited as Advent had a 10/1 reverse stock split in 2008.

     

    On 23 June 2008, the Company's ordinary shares of 5p each were consolidated on a ratio of 1 new ordinary share of 50p each for 10 old ordinary shares of 5p each approved by shareholders at the Annual General Meeting. Outstanding shares, as options and per share amounts have been retroactively restated to present the comparative information on a consistent basis

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    Top Porn Consumption States

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    The top porn consumption states per capita just happen to be virtually all Republican states.

     

    I believe what you really mean is that the highest consumption is in the most rural states. When you ponder on it a little, why wouldn't this not be the case. If you live in California, who needs porn consumption when you can just walk into your local massage parlor :)  As a side note, it was for the longest time that Utah was the highest consumption per capita and I was surprised that they have dropped. I guess since the Olympics the state has become slightly more secular. Also as a side note, guess what the most popular show in Iran is? Reruns of Baywatch.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    A LEAP Call That Pays You While You Wait (HRP-D)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Looks like HRP is using some of the cash from the GOV float.

     

    http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=ACBJ&data-ipsquote-timestamp=20090624&id=10063420

     

    JPMorgan quietly put the building on the market in early 2008, asking $385 per square foot, or roughly $250 million, brokers said.

     

    It appears that HRP paid only $134M and "in cash" for this nearly fully leased government building.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    A LEAP Call That Pays You While You Wait (HRP-D)

    in General Discussion

    Posted

    Remember when this was first approached, HRP-D was in the $7-$8 range.

     

    As for leverage, HRP is one is in the lower quartile for debt that I am aware of for most REITs. Plus the spin-off of the GOV IPO just provides a little more cash for HRP-D Preferred.

     

    Also, this is not a mandatory conversion but the holder has the right.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    El Nino

    in Fairfax Financial

    Posted

    Not so fast. Though I would love to have an El Nino both for investment purposes but also because of the good ski conditions :)

     

    "All statistical models predict ENSO-neutral conditions will continue for the remainder of 2009."

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.html

     

    If memory serves me well, a really good El Nino year would need temperatures in the +1.5C to +2.5C area, not the current +0.4C.

     

     

    Cheers

    JEast

    (formally 653211)

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