My estimates of intrinsic value and where this will trade in 36 or even 60 months do not assume any major buybacks from the company. It is possible that Fairfax takes the share count from the current 23 million shares to 18 or even 15 million depending on how much cash the insurance business generates once premium growth starts to slow down. In a world of zero premium growth and respectable combined ratios, Fairfax will not be required to keep injecting capital into these businesses, as they have over the last few years to fund the growth in premiums. Once premiums stop growing, these same insurance subsidiaries will begin to send capital back to the parent. The uses of this capital will include the buying back of all the remaining insurance stubs from OMERS. I would also expect them to take a couple more public companies private and finally, buyback shares below 120% of book value. If they earn $150 per year for three years, that generates over $11 billion in capital. That capital is going to go somewhere. After the minority cleanups, we might see some meaningful repurchases. Those are not in my projections. If they happen, the chances of a $2,000 or $2,500 Fairfax share price in less than 5 years grows considerably. At the current price of $730, this stock is simply too cheap and I would argue a better deal at $730 than $500 one year ago. People selling at $730 today simply aren't doing the work to calculate the earnings power of Fairfax or must be finding other stocks to own. I would love to know what they are buying to justify selling Fairfax. They have to be fantastically cheap stocks with a wonderful margin of safety.
I am selling other things in my portfolio to currently buy shares of NextNAV, a $300 million market cap failed SPAC that owns a portfolio of 2.4 billion POPs of nationwide spectrum in the 900 MHz band. This spectrum is worth between $1.5 and $2.5 billion and should be monetized over the next 24 months. The stock is $2.67 and I expect the shares to be worth easily north of $10 each in 24 months. They also have a cutting edge alternative to GPS which you get for free and could be worth $10 or $15 in 3-5 years. Finally, the corporate governance is fantastic, with heavy inside ownership, very smart spectrum folks on the Board and a history of making money for investors. Even with all that potential upside, I am not going to sell Fairfax to fund the purchase of NN shares.
NextNav investor presentation.pdf