NnnnotSoSmart

Yes. I suppose it is. Remember, I'm...

Jamie - the master - smart and measured in his responses to Economist interviewer. Trump living rent free in her head. The anti Trump agenda so obvious. She's there to push a narrative, not interview. Dimon squashes her directly and by implication. Jamie: "You guys are really smart people. You'll figure it out." No they won't. Not with their TDS. Concludes by telling the "Davos intellectual elite" to shove it. JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon delivers remarks at the World Economic Forum

The markets disagree with you.

A.I. and Our Economic Future The point of this essay is to entertain the possibility that A.I. might be profoundly transformative. What does economics have to say about this possibility, and what might our economic future look like? We begin by outlining two extreme scenarios for the impact of A.I. on the economy: one in which A.I. drastically accelerates economic growth and another in which A.I. is “business as usual.” Both scenarios are plausible, and the future will presumably lie somewhere between these extremes. Next, we describe task-based models of economic growth in which tasks are complementary. This “weak links” framework is helpful for thinking about the consequences of A.I. Finally, we consider potential risks from A.I., including effects on labor markets, inequality, and, more speculatively, existential risk. https://web.stanford.edu/~chadj/AIandEconomicFuture.pdf

The Arctic Smokescreen The most dangerous mistake about "Greenland is believing it is about Greenland. We are told this is a diplomatic spat, a real estate obsession, a chaotic throwback to 19th-century imperialism. The press treats it as spectacle. Commentators debate whether the administration is serious or simply trolling. Europeans express outrage at the affront to sovereignty. The whole affair is framed as noise: eccentric, embarrassing, ultimately inconsequential. This framing is comfortable. And almost surely wrong. The conventional reading of the Greenland saga is diplomatic incompetence in real time. The administration threatens force, gets rebuffed, escalates, gets rebuffed again, then retreats to the language of a purchase. Commentators shake their heads. Europeans express bewilderment. What looks like flailing is a classic Trump-style negotiation sequence. You open with an outrageous demand precisely so your real demand seems reasonable by comparison. It goes like this: Signal acquisition. Denmark scoffs. Mention force. Denmark recoils. Insist on force, loudly, repeatedly. Denmark reaches peak indignation. Others come to their side. Then pivot. A purchase offer that eliminates Denmark's entire national debt ($142B) and nearly doubles Greenland's GDP (~$450B)... And suddenly the question is no longer "how dare you" but "wait, how much?"

Ray Kurzweil interview. Wild stuff.

Thanks for the reference. Adding him to my "confirmation bias" watchlist. 15:40 min "The memory shortage is a massive story and yet I hear more and more people fading it. As someone who's been on Micron for a long time now, below a hundred and continuing to sit in the exact same position, it's because I see nothing on the horizon ...And out of every 10 people I talk to, at least 6 if not 7 of them either don't believe it or it's too late and they cant get in. The Micron story is still real" Recent MU director purchase last week suggests it may not be too late to get in. https://www.secform4.com/filings/723125/0002058769-26-000002.htm I'm not buying at these levels, but maintain a "full" position.

Underlying fundamentals, amplitude and duration of cycle?

Interesting convo with the Goldman Sachs Energy folks following the recent GS Energy, CleanTech & Utilities Conference. Neil Mehta talking his book @ ~ 25:00 min: " We are NOT in a structural down cycle in energy. We think we are in a cyclical down cycle. So, that's the difference. ... This is a cyclical air pocket where the market is oversupplied. Oil likely drifts lower (ex geopolitics) in the very near term. In a DCF calculation over the next 20 - 30 years it doesn't really matter. That's why the equities are outperforming the commodity. And so the question is, in this period of commodity softness, what can companies do to make their businesses better?...." He provides suggestions including M&A. https://veriten.com/stream/cobt-se-goldman-sachs/ Other topics discussed including utilities and power.

That's one narrative - brute force. Will be fascinating watching it all play out. "“The truth may be that the gap is actually widening,” Tang Jie, founder of the Chinese AI startup Zhipu, said at a conference last weekend in Beijing. “While we’re doing well in certain areas, we must still acknowledge the challenges and the disparities we face.” In other news, this guy was recently "Jack Ma'd" by Chinese authorities after making this statement.

Chinese AI Developers Say They Can’t Beat America Without Better Chips Companies in China jostle for access to Nvidia’s latest Rubin lineup while better-funded U.S. competitors are first in line SINGAPORE—After a year of gung-ho news about China’s gains in artificial intelligence, some elite Chinese AI researchers are coming to a more pessimistic conclusion. The country’s chances of catching up to the U.S. are slim in the short run, they say, because of a bottleneck in chips. “The truth may be that the gap is actually widening,” Tang Jie, founder of the Chinese AI startup Zhipu, said at a conference last weekend in Beijing. “While we’re doing well in certain areas, we must still acknowledge the challenges and the disparities we face.” One illustration: When the AI chip leader, Nvidia, introduced its next-generation Rubin hardware in January, it named a number of American companies as customers, but no Chinese AI developer was named because U.S. rules block direct sales to China. Chinese companies have started discussions about renting computing power at data centers in Southeast Asia and the Middle East to get access to Rubin chips, according to people involved in the talks. That follows companies’ efforts last year to access chips in Nvidia’s Blackwell series. https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-ai-race-us-chips-9e74b957?st=9UpaM5&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink My guess is China will, by hook or by crook, get their hands on latest NVDA chips. Maybe Canada will supply them to China with a small markup? New profit center that thumbs its nose at "Orange Man"?

Nobel Prize winner gives prize to the real Nobel Prize Winner. Trump Accepts Machado’s Nobel Peace Prize During White House Visit https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/machado-leaves-white-house-visit-with-little-to-show-4948d90f?st=GhFHcP&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink Waiting for Obama to give his to Trump as well. Still waiting....

McKinsey CEO comments on AI impact on headcount and productivity starting at 17:00 min. (0:00) Recap + Guest Intros: Jason introduces Bob Sternfels (McKinsey) and Hemant Taneja (General Catalyst) (2:48) The pace of innovation and why VC’s are buying hospitals (9:12) CFOs vs CIOs and unlocking growth (20:29) The job market and why graduates aren’t getting hired (27:21) Why education is broken (39:44) Looking back on innovative tech: Jason’s tech time capsule

Jeffries CIO Survey Shows Uptick in AI Budget Allocations and GOOGL Spend Our survey of 40 IT execs revealed 4 key insights: (1) modest accel in software budget growth in 2026; (2) AI tools / features and security are the top priorities; (3) increasing AI budget allocations at 12% vs. 7% last survey; (4) AI ROI highest for customer service and software dev, but not a slam dunk across all implementations. GOOGL (GCP) upticked in this survey in terms of net spend expectations, while MSFT, AMZN, PANW and CRWD continue to screen well. Jefferies CIO Survey Shows Uptick in AI Budget 011326.pdf

Friend forward this to me. Apparently authored by a Tracy Shuggart. Cannot find a link to the article on the web. Probably behind a paywall. Suppose presence of China, Iran and Russia could be deemed "an imminent threat'.

Micron just very reported strong earnings. They claim on slide 27 that AI is benefitting the company. No dollar amounts mentioned. Suspect we'll see more of these types of slides from corporations in the future. Suppose the proof is in the pudding...will it ultimately benefit the bottom line? Time will tell.

According to Gemini: "The primary reason for the high penetration of electric vehicles (EVs) in Denmark and Finland—as well as the broader Nordic region—is a combination of aggressive government tax incentives, high gasoline costs, and robust charging infrastructure. While both countries share a commitment to carbon neutrality, their specific policy levers differ slightly: 1. Massive Tax Incentives (Denmark) Denmark has historically high taxes on internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, often exceeding 100% of the car's value. To promote EVs, the government implemented a registration tax phase-in. The "Tax Gap": While an ICE car might be hit with a massive registration tax, EVs have enjoyed significant exemptions or heavily reduced rates. This makes the "sticker price" of a Tesla or a Polestar competitive with—or even cheaper than—a standard gas-powered sedan like a Volkswagen Golf or a Ford Focus. Low Ownership Taxes: Beyond the initial purchase, annual ownership taxes are significantly lower for zero-emission vehicles. 2. High Cost of Fossil Fuels Both Denmark and Finland have some of the highest gasoline and diesel prices in the world due to environmental taxes. The Fuel Math: With electricity being relatively affordable (and increasingly sourced from domestic wind in Denmark and nuclear/hydro in Finland), the Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) tips heavily in favor of EVs. Drivers save thousands of Euros annually on "fuel" alone. 3. Government Mandates and Infrastructure (Finland) Finland has used a "carrot and stick" approach focusing on infrastructure and corporate fleets: Public Charging Grants: The Finnish government provides subsidies for housing companies and workplaces to install charging stations. This solves the "apartment dweller" problem, where people without private garages are hesitant to buy an EV. Benefit-in-Kind (BIK) Tax Breaks: A huge portion of new cars in Finland are company cars. The government slashed the taxable value of EV company car benefits, incentivizing thousands of professionals to choose electric over diesel. 4. Cultural Alignment and Green Energy Both nations have "green" social contracts. Denmark produces a massive surplus of wind energy. Driving an EV there is seen as a way to directly utilize the country's most abundant natural resource. Finland has moved aggressively toward energy independence, and EVs reduce the national reliance on imported oil. 5. The "Nordic Effect" and Resale Value Because the penetration is so high, the secondary market (used cars) for EVs is very healthy in these countries. Consumers are more confident buying an EV because they know there is a robust network of mechanics, spare parts, and a high resale value compared to a gas car, which is increasingly seen as an "obsolete" technology in those markets.

Ken Griffin- The Western World needs Europe to Succeed :

Speaking of fishing....Recent Li Liu interview on th subject: "2. Go fishing where there are fish. Another unique contribution of Charlie is that he expanded the scope of application of value investing. He has a famous saying that investment is like fishing. There are two important principles for fishing: the first is that you should go fishing where there are fish, and the second is that you should never forget the first principle. The same is true for investment. Where can you find your circle of competence? How to build a circle of competence? Our time is very limited. He said that you should go to places where there are really fish, where it is easier to build a circle of competence, and where there are more choices after it is established. Following this concept, Charlie expanded value investing from the earliest focus on severely undervalued companies in the United States to great companies with high growth in the United States, and further expanded to places outside the United States where there are still many great companies and are in a growth period. This makes it possible to practice value investing globally. https://moiglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/li-lu-on-charlie-munger-202412.pdf

Wasn't sure where to post this, but this thread seemed the best place. Recent Li Liu Interview: "November 28th marks the first anniversary of Charlie Munger’s death. With the collaboration of Munger Institute and CITIC Publishing Group, Mr. Li Lu, asset manager of the Munger family and founder of Himalaya Capital, accepted an online interview with Zhenghe Island on the same day. This is the first interview Mr. Li Lu has accepted with domestic media after four years. In the interview, Li Lu recalled his mentor Munger, summarized his spiritual legacy, and pointed out that it was Munger who made value investing possible in the global practice. The following is the transcript of this exclusive interview, compiled by Munger Institute, approximately 12,490 words, and estimated reading time of 25 minutes. " https://moiglobal.com/wp-content/uploads/li-lu-on-charlie-munger-202412.pdf

Suppose it depends on who the fishermen are? Saying that, I followed Charlie into BABA a few years back and later regretted it. Sold out for a sizable loss. I won't be fishing in China again.

Gulp!

Listening to a Schwab 2026 Market Outlook (yes, I know time better spent staring at my navel) During the Q&A, at 46:25 min, a question was asked about investing in Europe: Moderator: “Excessive regulation in Europe Does it slow down growth or not?” Michelle Gibley (Director International Equity Research – Charles Schwab) “Regulation has certainly pulled down Europe’s growth. Despite the Euro being a currency union, the capital markets are not a union. So there’s a separate stock market for each country with different filing requirements and different regulations. Can you imagine if we had a separate stock market for every US state? This lack of a capital market union reduces the ability of startups to raise money. It also hinders R&D. Former ECB President Mario Draghi, also former prime minister of Italy, laid out a year ago 383 recommendations for Europe to improve its competitiveness. You might say that’s bad news, but the good news it shows there is a lot of opportunity to improve. Investor expectations are low… As Buffett has said: “You pay a high price for a cheery consensus” No disrespect for Mr. Buffett, or my European ancestors but I wouldn't touch European equities with someone else's ten foot pole. My roots (DNA) are 99.9% European. Mother was born in France. I feel fortunate I was born in US. Mom met dad (American) and moved to the US.

+1!

Howard Marks: Is it a Bubble? (snip) "Here’s my actual bottom line: There’s a consistent history of transformational technologies generating excessive enthusiasm and investment, resulting in more infrastructure than is needed and asset prices that prove to have been too high. The excesses accelerate the adoption of the technology in a way that wouldn’t occur in their absence. The common word for these excesses is “bubbles.” AI has the potential to be one of the greatest transformational technologies of all time. As I wrote just above, AI is currently the subject of great enthusiasm. If that enthusiasm doesn’t produce a bubble conforming to the historical pattern, that will be a first. Bubbles created in this process usually end in losses for those who fuel them. The losses stem largely from the fact that the technology’s newness renders the extent and timing of its impact unpredictable. This in turn makes it easy to judge companies too positively amid all the enthusiasm and difficult to know which will emerge as winners when the dust settles. There can be no way to participate fully in the potential benefits from the new technology without being exposed to the losses that will arise if the enthusiasm and thus investors’ behavior prove to have been excessive. The use of debt in this process – which the high level of uncertainty usually precluded in past technological revolutions – has the potential to magnify all of the above this time. Since no one can say definitively whether this is a bubble, I’d advise that no one should go all-in without acknowledging that they face the risk of ruin if things go badly. But by the same token, no one should stay all-out and risk missing out on one of the great technological steps forward. A moderate position, applied with selectivity and prudence, seems like the best approach." (memo in its entirety found here, the postscript is worth reading) https://www.oaktreecapital.com/insights/memo/is-it-a-bubble