Thelilyinvestor
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Posts posted by Thelilyinvestor
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In my opinion, is Itochu. I believe they have more non resource companies, so their cash flows are less cyclical. I am invested since 2020 and quite happy with how management is operating the business. Consistently increasing buybacks and dividends.
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18 hours ago, james22 said:
But what was responsible 30 years ago seems irresponsible now.
I have avoided technology sectors as an investor because in general I don’t have a solid grasp of what differentiates many technology companies. I don’t know how to spot durable competitive advantage in technology. To get rich, you find businesses with durable competitive advantage and you don’t overpay for them. Technology is based on change; and change is really the enemy of the investor. Change is more rapid and unpredictable in technology relative to the broader economy. To me, all technology sectors look like 7-foot hurdles. (2005)
He hasn't he learned anything since then?
And even if he's learned it's impossible to spot durable competitive advantage, why hasn't he then bought a Tech basket?
I think the point he is trying to make are 2:
1) He only invests in what he understands (If he would understand a big tech company he would invest)
2) He doesnt like to invest in fast changing industries (if any of the big tech companies would be more slow changing, he could invest in them)
He does not having any problem investing in tech, rather than understanding and the pace of change in a industry.
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5 hours ago, schin said:
Masayoshi Son is closer to the Elon Musk than Warren Buffett. Masayoshi is more of a growth investing/venture capitalist than value investing. He won't take anything out of the trash heap... he is backing horses.... I would says he's more Elon Musk in IQ and Andresson Horawitz/Sequoia Capital-esque.
Completely Agree.
We will find a great capital allocator, will post here if I find someone that walks the talk.
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3 hours ago, no_free_lunch said:
Who is the Warren Buffet / Prem Watsa of Japan?
Well, track record wise, you have to say Masayoshi Son, from Softbank. But I consider this guy a smart guy who has both been extremely aggressive and probably lucky.
I do not know any Buffett like investors from Japan. Must be some building amazing conglomerates.
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12 hours ago, LC said:
That's fair - I am looking at a basket approach so looking to incorporate some others as well, including net-nets and other low P/B stuff.
I came across this post which is spurring my investigation: https://altaycap.substack.com/p/full-cheap-japanese-portfolio-positions
Of course my answer was partially a joke.
I think the main idea with Japanese stocks is finding the few ones who understand capital allocation, even if they are a bit more expensive than the ultra cheap stuff.
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2 hours ago, LC said:
Revisiting this - for those who have experience investing in Japan, how do you find ideas?
Specifically, is there a good screener that you use? Everything I see seems junky and not comprehensive, and I don't shell out for a bb terminal.
Best screener for Japan is the Buffett Screener.
These trading companies are extremely high quality and pretty much cheap still after the run.
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I invested during the drawdown of covid in 2020, OMAB was 1 stock in a basket of stocks heavily affected by the pandemic, you could call it a "contrarian basket" which on average should work out.
OMAB´s business has been performing really well since then so I have not sold a single share. I do not have an opinion on ASUR. I guess OMAB is more a bet on Mexico´s economic growth, while ASUR is more a bet on touristic travel I understand.
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I own one of the 3 mexican airport groups, OMAB.
My understanding is that the concession expires in 2048 as some of you have pointed out.
In the case of no further concession after 2048, does anyone know what happens to the equity? Is it all paid as a special dividend? Does anyone know any past examples of not renewing the concession and what happened? Thank you
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I find interesting that he bought back more Berkshire shares in June and early July than April and May at higher prices. Maybe he is seeing a re acceleration in the US economy?
I think it is worth a thought, we all know that Buffett is very price sensitive and only buys back shares of Berkshire if they are "significantly undervalued conservatively estimated by Charlie and me"
Lily
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When CNBC starts giving names to a group of companies because their prices just keep going up is sometimes a great indicator of a top.
The new term is the "Magnificent 7". Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta, Amazon, Tesla, Nvidia and Apple.
I believe Tesla, Nvidia are completely overvalued. Microsoft, Alphabet, Meta and Apple towards expensive. Amazon might be fairly valued in my opinion.
Are they a leading indicator to the rest of the market? Or just some AI hype?
I open this thread, which I think might be interesting.
Lily
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https://www.barrons.com/articles/berkshire-hathaway-warren-buffett-pilot-flying-j-buy-84705bd
Buffett boosting its stake in Pilot to 80%
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Seems like they net purchased around 4B of stocks in the quarter +1B in buybacks. I was hoping they would be a bit more aggressive with the markets crashing.
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48 minutes ago, Dynamic said:
Only securities traded in the US (including ADRs) are included in the SEC's list of securities and CUSIP Numbers that are to be shown on 13F filings.
Foreign holdings such as BYD Co. Ltd. (1211.HKG) may show up periodically in local filings instead according to local rules (such as changing their holding by a whole percentage point), as you'll have seen recently on these forums.The last filing where I saw some of the Japanese Trading Companies was on page 7 of the Chairman's Letter in the 10-K for year end Dec 31, 2021, published this February. They show up in the largest 15 equity holdings table.
Those large enough at year end to be shown there were (with Over the Counter Markets equivalent listings tickers and share count):
OTC:ITOCF 89,241,000 2021 10K portfolio, p7 of Chairman's Letter, an increase from 2020 10K holding
OTC:MSBHF 81,714,800 2021 10K portfolio, p7 of Chairman's Letter.
OTC:MITSF 93,776,200 2021 10K portfolio, p7 of Chairman's Letter.which were slightly greater holdings than I had estimated until the report came out. Of these, only Itochi had made the 2020 top-15 holdings list, IIRC.
Those not large enough to be disclosed in the top 15 positions with my very approximate best guess holdings sizes are:
OTC:MARUF 88,600,000 Approximately 5.1% stake - my own guess based on press release.
OTC:SSUMF 63,800,000 Approximately 5.1% stake - my own guess based on press release.There are some other foreign holdings such as Societa Cattolica, an Italian insurer that has been bought out recently, so I imagine Berkshire pocketed cash proceeds from the acquisition and will show a realized gain in Q3's 10-Q. This exact position has never been reported, though a press release about Berkshire's investment gave an indication of the holding's size.
Most websites purporting to show the Berkshire portfolio completely ignore the New England Asset Management portfolio (read cover page of Berkshire's 13F-HR filing and NEAM's filing to understand this). NEAM, for example, shows a small position in the UK listed firm Diageo plc, but they're shown because they're held via ADRs and thus reported in the 13F.
The other thing done on the table on page 7 of the Chairman's letter is to remove holdings by Berkshire's pension funds which aren't beneficially owned by Berkshire shareholders. I have been able to confirm these using 13D and 13G filings, where code EP refers to Employee Pension funds.
BYD however, is shown in full even though Berkshire only owned 91.1% of Berkshire Hathaway Energy which holds that position. The portion applicable to Shareholders' Equity would have been 91.1% of the BYD holding shown, and would now be about 92.1% of the amount shown since Berkshire bought out Greg Abel's 1% stake in BHE. The same 92.1% applies to Berkshire Shareholders' share of BHE's earnings.
This detailed info is excellent! Thank you Dynamic
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Maybe I am late to this but... does anyone know with certainty if Buffett sold his holdings of the 5 japanese trading companies? They do not appear on any filing
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Clearly they had been on the move in Q1 with Oxy, Chevron, Alleghany, and others.
They have reduce the speed of buybacks and increased purchases in stocks, so I understand that they view some opportunities out there more interesting that their own stock.
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1 minute ago, Ballinvarosig Investors said:
Burry shorting Apple is interesting, especially when Buffett increased his position a touch.
I think is important to remember the differences of style. Buffett basicaly thinks 10 years ahead, while Burry thinks maybe some months or years ahead.
Apple could be short for the short term and a long for the long term at the same time.
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I see quite a lot of consensus buying big tech, these are the top4 buys last quarter.
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24 minutes ago, gfp said:
For the German companies Berkshire purchased in Q1, they were:
Allianz, Munich Re and BASF
This is great, Thanks!
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With this very interesting 13F season coming up when markets are in a severe downfall, I thought we should have a general 13F topic to share potential investment ideas.
Let the cloning begin
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He bought 600M of Apple around 150 before it went back up, so it would surprise me if he is not buying right now at around 140!!
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I am just saying that he has high conviction on this, he might be wrong, but he also might understand something we dont understand. Time will tell...
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1 hour ago, Monsieur_dee said:
Rob tripled down with Carvana here. Probably under water heavy here.
Yeah... but you have to admire his strong conviction on a very uncertain situation...
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4 minutes ago, elliott said:
By the way, I remark this case because RV pays a lot of attention to management. He specifically has mentioned several times how important it is to have managers with integrity and skin in the game. He usually interviews with leaders in the businesses he invests in to get to know them, and I think that must have been the case with Grenke, given their relatively small size and how close they are physically.
Agree, for what I understand, his first criteria is having passionate founders with skill and integrity.
I think he has done an excellent job finding great business operators, but here he might have been wrong.
So the question is: Does he have a good eye for managers and this is just 1 case he was wrong? Or he has an average ability to figure out great managers?
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2 hours ago, elliott said:
thats exactly what I am doing, even if, at least partially, I agree with throw123. RVs returns for the next decade might not be so good anymore.
Agreed as the last decade has been a very good one.
I also believe he has high chances of him beating the market, but only time will tell.
The Search for the Next "Outsider"
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by Thelilyinvestor
We all know these amazing management teams and capital allocators, your typical Warren Buffett, Mark Leonard etc. But they are already big and constrains of too much capital are always on the horizon.
I thought it was a great idea to start this topic of the next great capital allocators, who are still for the most part unknown. Just having 1 of these "outsiders" early enough in their journey can be the easiest way to hit a big home run by just trusting management.
I personally have identified the management team of Terravest - TVK as one of the best out there, and they are still a very small company.
Also, Brett Kelly from KPG is a potential great capital allocator still young enough in his journey
Anyone out there that wants to share some of these "Outsiders" so we can all profit from it?
Thanks!