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wescobrk

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Posts posted by wescobrk

  1. Everyone is welcome to listen to the audio.

    He said he would love to talk about it but can't. He said they both feel that they are owed money from one another and that Bruce thinks they would settle.

    Why would Bruce say he would love to talk several minutes about it and then say "but I can't?"

     

    If we see any trading from him in the next few days in AIG or BAC that would clearly disprove that he has any material information.

  2. I was there. It was enjoyable.

    I didn't take many notes but I enjoyed Berkowitz's chat.

    He was very released and although I don't know the kind of shoes he had on he was dressed very similar to the Miami video. It was I'm the 20's and his shirt and informal attire looked the same.

    I didnt realize how funny he was. He was more entertaining than Klarman.

     

    For Aig fans and BAC he did say BAC is worth 40 in 5-7 years and Aig about 140 in 5-7 years. He didn't list anything this board hasn't covered.

    The one juicy question came about mbia and BAC litigation. Bruce said he would love to talk for 15 minutes about it but stopped and only said he can't discuss it (maybe material info) he said it would get settled but didn't give a time frame.

  3. Through end of Nov (latest avail although up quite a bit more in Dec) up 87% for 2012 in Roth (all due to BAC) and up 22% in taxable account (up more in Dec probably close to 30%) bought BAC later in taxable after price rose

    I'll never see 87% again so I'm going to enjoy it.:)

  4. It looks like he'll get the 10 million cap for incentive even though after tax earnings were about 20 million so he effectively earned half of what the shareholders earned, is that right? If there wasnt a cap of ten million, I think he would have earned closer to 15 million but shareholders earned 20, or about 75% of what shareholders netted. Granted this is somewhat misleading because he has a huge amount of unrealized gains for shareholders, but I think those numbers are correct.

     

    I wonder what his chances of getting control of UNAM insurance company given the board controls over 53% of the stock.

  5. Eric et al, anyone concerned or changing allocation because of fiscal cliff?

    CBO says 4-5% hit to GDP this would result in 30% hit to corporate profits. This could cause a huge decline to the market and bigger to BAC with a beta of twice the market I believe.

    The question Im getting at is how much dry powder are people leaving or are you not concerned or making any changes over next few weeks?

    Thanks

  6. What is the likely Basel 3 final required rate of assets? I know there is some uncertainty on the final number but is it 10% roughly with SIFI charge of total assets? BOFA has about $1.2 trillion I believe in risk weighted assets. Tangible book in June was $158 billion. Just curious of a rough range of about much more capital they have to build?

    Thanks.

  7. I think this was posted a long time ago but I wanted to ask those on the board that have bought leaps and then convert to the shares--how would the taxes work if the stock is subsequently sold? Does the cap gain rate apply for anything after the conversion and the marginal rate apply for the amount paid for the option leap call?

     

    If you don't mind, please lay out if buy a call and then convert within a few months and then sell the stock less than 12 months and then greater than 12 months.

     

    Thanks!

  8. "Yeah, I don't think the "bet it all" should be taken literally - and I kinda doubt that even Rothstein did that - but it goes back to Munger/Buffett and how, when you are sure enough something is a really great opportunity and you've really done your homework, don't put 5% on it... Great opportunities don't come by everyday, so get the most of them.

     

    At some point I think Buffett had 75% in GEICO..."

     

    I remember seeing Warren and Charlie live (I don't recall the year) and Warren turned to Charlie and asked him if he ever put 100% in one security and Charlie replied, "it was more than 100%."

     

    From what I have read and heard from Warren, he never exceeded the 75% level that he had in Geico (as far as in one company % of net worth).

  9. I'll play devils advocate. In 2014 and 2015 I can understand BAC going above tbv, but among 30 analysts BAC will earn about 90 cents a share in 2013.

    Mr. Market places primacy on earnings and not the balance sheet. I don't see how BAC can hit tbv (Sanjeev) by Christmas which would imply about 14x earnings.

     

    BAC's cost of capital consensus is about 12% and it is earning low single digits. Clearly Mr Market can become euphoric and it go to 14 by year end but it looks unlikely even dare I say through March when tbv will probably be 14 a share.

     

    BAC is over half my portfolio and thanks to this board I'm up over 60% ytd in IRA and about 35 in taxable (my portfolio isn't that big though it is under 250k and I'm in my upper 30's to respond to a different thread regarding performance). I did my own analysis bit have a complicated option setup like Eric along with out of the money puts on S&P.

     

    I plan on selling quite a bit once it crosses 10 and probably switch to the common with a lower weighting of my port and if it comes back down -which certainly is a possibility- I can do it again, if it doesn't, I still profit but not nearly as much (but with less risk).

     

    I'm ready for board criticism on my doubts for BAC as i know it is very popular on this board.

  10. Last BAC post for while. BAC is up about 15% within a few days. A lot of people on the board sold BAC when it got in the 9's with outs or sold altogether (I was one of them) anyone have plans to do the same as BAC crosses 9?

  11. Bond yield curves will be “very steep” for “a very long time,” Gross wrote in a Twitter post yesterday. A period of reflation is under way, he wrote. Investors should expect “higher long rates” and “low short rates,” according to Gross, who is based in Newport Beach, California.

     

    Anyone care to comment how much greater earnings power for BAC once we have a steep yield curve? Certainly not expecting 2012 or maybe even 2013 but certainly around 2014 or 2015 and beyond?

     

    Is the tally now about $8 billion in expense savings from BAC by 2015? Also, isn't the mortgage problems costing almost $2 billion a quarter? Ive heard 1% ROA, anyone think any higher than that?

     

    Thanks

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