scorpioncapital
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Posts posted by scorpioncapital
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if aapl is his tech proxy he won't buy the others unless he switches out wholesale probably...
brk seems to be a conglomerate of efficiency in various categories. i've seldom seen him double up except when taking a starter position in some industry of 2-4 names and then either consolidate into 1 or dump them all if his thesis changes.
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i think this is the recession now...
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What are higher rates? The ability of capital to earn income doing absolutely nothing, taking no risks.
I wonder what are the implications of that.
I suppose it would also mean innovation suffers since who would want to innovate?
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Growth is the place to be, always.
Price you pay is hard to get the patience/temperament right.
I would argue very few have the superhuman patience to wait years or decades for the right purchase price for high ultimate return.
I can see an argument for owning say boring utilities or bond like equivalents then shift out of them into high growth quality companies once a decade or something.
Perhaps this is that time where those who bought the right thing too high will feel some pain (a return to a lower return for their high purchase price) and those who buy at lower prices will be rewarded with the above average higher returns.
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7 hours ago, crs223 said:
US appoints the Fed. The Fed prints money to buy US debt.I’m not sure how US goes BK under that arrangement.
But the rate of interest is rising. Will money printing accelerate for like each 50 basis point rise?
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At what rate of interest does the US go bankrupt??
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5 minutes ago, crs223 said:
I naively thought liberty media (in particular the Sirus XM "branch") would be mindlessly simple: it's a company that just owns stock in another company. I thought I was going to see:
- Assets: Shares of SIRI
- Liabilities: Debt used to by SIRI
- Revenue: dividends from SIRI and proceeds from SIRI sales
- Expenses: cost to purchase SIRI shares
Then I would create a spreadsheet showing NAV.
Amusingly... I'm an hour into the 10K and I still don't know how many shares of SIRI are owned by Liberty Media. Not even sure if the Liberty financials are "including" SIRI's financials.
It says right here - "We own approximately 81.2% of SiriusXM as of January 28, 2022, which operates two complementary audio entertainment businesses, SiriusXM and Pandora."
https://www.libertymedia.com/tracking-stocks/liberty-siriusxm-group
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what does it mean recourse when like 1/3+ of your population is from another country. If they don't pay they can not just skip town, but skip the entire country. I do not see this as prevention of a disaster.
As for incomes being higher than USA, with the tax burden generally being higher (i once calculated it as 2x higher) and cost of living higher and salaries lower I would say canadian incomes are half of US incomes despite houses being 2x more expensive, a 400% differential. This is the dynamic you see in third world countries, where the rich can do anything but the cost of living is too high for the locals relative to incomes.
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Why do you need to hedge inflation? I think people misunderstand something about inflation. Loss is guaranteed under inflation. The goal is to lose less at the other end of the tunnel. If you can maintain 80% of your purchasing power instead of 50% you should be quite happy. Now maybe the top investors can keep 100% or even have some gain but from what I read it is very hard when inflation is high to not lose, if by corruption on the ground alone. I've often been fascinated by human society. For example, there are many places where if you wave big money and ask for a taxi or a lodging they will say NO! Pride sometimes is worth more than money. And even if they're starving they'll take your money and still do something to show you who is boss.
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Well that's the thing I was curious about the 80s too. When you could buy a 30 year treasury for 10% interest or 14% how did the buyer know that was not gonna be a loss and go even higher? After all if inflation was 12% and rate was 14% you'd still be only making 2% real return. Sometimes I don't understand gov bonds so i stay out of the market )
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Inflation is a product of the human desire to get something for nothing on the societal level. people shouldn't be upset. They are just paying back for what they voted or wanted since most people live beyond their means in credit societies.
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I don't see the connection between consumer demand and hyperinflation. If anything, demand increases.
I think Erdogan is quite right. Higher rates just increases inflation, gallops even faster. You have to pay more on your debt, you charge more for everything.
Financial repression (read: theft of capital) is actually the government's unspoken policy choice. There was a paper that it is either inflation or default and nobody is gonna default overtly so they default covertly via inflation higher than rates for a relatively long period of time.
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citizenship is irrelevant. Only residency matters for opening account. The US citizen might be an exception due to their own system of foreign reporting which other countries may not want to deal with. But maybe someone knows more about that
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I would argue the inflation has just begun and so the sugar high hasn't even reached a peak. stocks can still even double. We are still in the euphoric orgasmic phase of inflation.
The horrors of inflation occur on the downside of the roller coaster. If you think this is bad, you haven't seen a real hyperinflation yet!
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the next Faang is the government. You can invest in it by being a taxpayer and getting a check in the mail, forever )
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Yes I think he did that with Phillips 66. He doesn't like cyclical businesses attached to slightly less commoditized chemicals. Not that chemicals are great businesses either but on the scale of volatility they are lower than base commodities.
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I'm surprised he didn't pick up AIG. A very large float. Mostly bonds. Derivative book completely clean now. Finally back to firing on all cylinders. Very streamlined. Maybe he's waiting for the life biz separation if he's gonna pounce on the p&c portion.
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didn't look at Y portfolio but is it similar to genre where they increased the cash equivalents portion of their float without the capital gains tax of selling shares with unrealized gains?
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7 hours ago, ValueMaven said:
really dump question - but why didnt Warren buy aggressively when prices where in the $10 - $15 range and the company was in serious trouble?? Have things changed THAT much vs. the price apperication to buy aggressively in the mid-$50s. Which is a better risk-reward, OXY at $14 when oil was $40, or OXY at $55 when oil is $110????
I think you answered your question. At $10 it was in trouble. There could even be the risk of bankruptcy, or at least underperformance. Look at $SRG. Berkshire was a lender and didn't turn out. Oxy turned out. Perhaps it was Ukraine, perhaps it was just more economies of scale. I think Buffett will always make the conservative risk-adjusted decision , especially when buying common level equity for Berkshire account. I've noticed he sometimes buys preferred or debt when he doesn't want to own equity when he's not absolutely sure to prevent underperformance even if he thinks bankruptcy is not likely. I think what he read in the transcript was the positive attitude of management toward debt. I think it is or will become clear that debt is a killer. He has said it many times. If used in a wrong way or to fund a cyclical business, or overdoing it, it can be ruinous. Today many companies are undisciplined to debt and will only see the consequences in time via either an acute distress event or lower valuation as enterprise value and interest costs cut into earning power.
So when oxy management said they learned from their mistakes of using debt in the Anadarko acquisition I think that is what was music to his ears.
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Broadcom, Danaher, Liberty
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does Putin not want Ukraine to join Nato or the EU as well? You can have Eu country that is not NATO. But it is funny since the world seems to be sending equipment to Ukraine anyway so its very loose definition. It would be very easy for Ukraine to join EU and not Nato (perhaps like romania/bulgaria but with the same neutrality as Sweden or Finland). can't see what the objection would be to that. Maybe Ukraine was too stubborn to want Nato membership as they are fighting Russia anyway without it.
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Ukraine wanted to join a more successful regional bloc (europe) instead of a less rich and successful block (russia/central asia). One is democratic, the other authoritarian. It is rough when you are in the middle and the Russian side is claiming you don't exist and have no right to leave.
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Taiwan is not in Nato is it? so why would USA be obligated to go in? And if it did, sounds like they dislike helping the Ukrainians for some reason?
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why not invert and go long Intel?
Significantly Outperforming a Bear Market
in General Discussion
Posted
To the claim that stocks did poorly in the 1970s I saw an article on SA where the author says that stocks actually doubled during the 70s. It was the high p/e tech stocks that did not do well. So it sounds to me that the forces of inflated gains in earnings does not fully offset the high prices of leading companies if the inflation is high enough. However buying cheaper stocks throughout the period did not do so badly.