ECCO

You mention many good reasons why Buffet did buy BNSF. Personnally, I think its also a big bet to protect BRK against inflation. ECCO

Company Symbol EPSEstimate* Time Add to MyCalendar Fairfax Financial Holdings FFH 9.91 After Market Close Add How much press would anothe company get beating an estimate by 3 times. Those estimates are totally bull***t and nobody should care about that. As I show in another post, the information was there and was available for everybody. Anybody could expect an increase in book value of about 50$/share by taking time to read ORH sollicitation document, and that information was available 1 month ago. I like the numbers but its not a surprise. FFH story's getting boring. One quarter its 500M$, another year its 1B$, hey we get used to those M$ and B$... there is no surprise anymore. ;) ECCO

I considered myself lucky being able to read and participate to that board. There are guys here from all over the world, some are 20 and begins investing, others are retired, that makes this board so interresting. At the end, we are all investors and share the same passion. Thanks Sanjeev for taking care of this board. Many of you guys are very good when come time to evaluate FFH book value. It surprised me that nobody had refer to that citation on page 17 of Odyssey Re solicitation document: the fact that the offer price represents a 1.25x multiple to OdysseyRe's book value per share of common stock as of june 30, 2009 and a 1.11x multiple to OdysseyRe's estimated book value as of September 30, 2009, based on management estimates... So if 65$ is 1.11x book value, that mean ORH book value should be at 58.56$ as of September 30. ORH book value was 51.90 as of june 30, then there is a 12.8% appreciation in ORH book value from june to september. Over the last quarters, ORH growth in book value was higher than FFH, so is it reasonnable to expect more than 12% growth in FFH book value this quarter? ECCO N.B. As you might have noticed, english is not my first language, feel free to ask me what I mean if what i write dont make sense ;).

TORONTO, ONTARIO--(Marketwire - 09/18/09) - Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSX:FFH - News)(NYSE:FFH - News) has filed a preliminary short form base shelf prospectus with the Canadian securities regulatory authorities. The shelf prospectus will allow Fairfax to offer from time to time over a 25-month period up to US$2.0 billion of debt, equity or other securities. The filing is intended to restore the capacity which was available to Fairfax prior to its recent offering of subordinate voting shares which closed on September 11, 2009. The US$2.0 billion maximum also represents an increase of US$1.0 billion in total capacity, which is consistent with Fairfax's increased market capitalization and will provide Fairfax with additional financial flexibility. Should Fairfax offer any securities, it will make a prospectus supplement available that will include the specific terms of the securities being offered. Upon a receipt being issued for the final short form base shelf prospectus, Fairfax's existing base shelf prospectus will be withdrawn. Does that mean they expect to make another big move? ECCO

With respect to all of you guys that think they will not increased their bid, I think you are of the track on that part. A buyer never give his best offer first, Prem knows it. What is happenning now is a big show. Some people "study" the offer, they will then come to the conclussion that 60$ is low, that the "true" value of ORH is between 63 and 68$, Prem will offer 63$, that will not be enought, the deal will close at 64$ or 65$ and everybody is happy. Anyway, will should know it by next friday. ECCO

Here is the Northbridge negociation story. Following the Special Committee meeting, Messrs. Smith and Barbaro met with Mr. Bradley Martin, Vice President, Chief Operating Officer and Corporate Secretary of Fairfax, to discuss the progress on the valuation work of Scotia Capital and the Special Committee’s work. Messrs. Smith, Barbaro and Martin discussed, among other things, the price and terms upon which Fairfax may be prepared to make an offer for the Shares it did not already hold. In outlining such price and terms, Mr. Martin indicated that Fairfax had not settled on the form of goingprivate transaction which it might propose. Messrs. Smith and Barbaro advised that, although the preparation of the Valuation was still in process, an offer at Fairfax’s indicative price of $36.00 in cash per Share was unlikely to be supported by the Special Committee. On November 28, 2008, the Special Committee met again with Scotia Capital and Osler to, among other things, receive an update from Scotia Capital regarding its progress in its valuation work. Scotia Capital updated the Special Committee on discussions that it had held with management of Northbridge and reviewed in detail the results of its preliminary work. Scotia Capital indicated that, subject to completion of due diligence, its preliminary view was that an “en bloc” valuation range for the Shares was in the range of $37.00 to $41.00 per Share. As part of its presentation to the Special Committee, Scotia Capital provided details regarding the application of the discountedcash flow analysis methodology, including key assumptions and limitations, and reviewed the other valuation methodologies used in connection with its valuation work, which it had previously discussed with the Special Committee. The Special Committee discussed with Scotia Capital various aspects of the valuation methodologies employed and assumptions underlying such methodologies and the appropriateness of such assumptions. The Special Committee then discussed strategic matters including potential future meetings with representatives of Fairfax. The next day Mr. Smith and Mr. Watsa discussed, among other things, the price and terms of a potential Fairfax offer. Mr. Watsa indicated that if Fairfax were to proceed with an offer it would likely be structured as an “insider bid”. In addition, Mr. Watsa indicated that if Fairfax did proceed with an offer it would be prepared to offer $38.00 in cash per Share. Messrs. Smith, Watsa and Martin had several conversations during the day of November 29, 2008 regarding the potential price at which Fairfax was prepared to make an offer for the Shares and throughout these conversations Fairfax reiterated that it was unwilling to offer more than $38.00 in cash per Share. The Special Committee met on November 30, 2008 with Scotia Capital and Osler to, among other things, receive a further update from Scotia Capital regarding its progress in its valuation work. Scotia Capital again reviewed the various methodologies it was using in its valuation work and indicated that it was in a position to deliver its Valuation and Fairness Opinion. In light of the substantial progress which Scotia Capital had made to date in its valuation work and the discussions which had occurred between Messrs. Smith, Watsa and Martin the previous day, the Special Committee determined that it would be able to support an offer from Fairfax at a price of $39.00 in cash per Share and Scotia Capital indicated it would be able to deliver a fairness opinion in respect of such an offer. Following that meeting, Mr. Smith contacted Mr. Watsa to convey this determination to Mr. Watsa. Mr. Watsa repeated his previous advice that Fairfax was unwilling to offer more than $38.00 in cash per Share but that Fairfax would further consider the Special Committee’s position. Mr. Smith relayed the substance of his discussions with Mr. Watsa to the Special Committee. Later that day, Mr. Watsa contacted Mr. Smith to advise that Fairfax was prepared to raise its offer to $39.00 in cash per Share provided that the Special Committee confirmed its support of Fairfax’s revised offer. Mr. Watsa also proposed that, if Fairfax’s revised offer would be supported by the Special Committee, Fairfax and Northbridge would issue a joint press release announcing Fairfax’s offer prior to the opening of trading on the TSX on December 1, 2008. Mr. Smith responded that he would need to confer with the Special Committee regarding this revised offer and Scotia Capital would need to deliver its Valuation and Fairness Opinion in respect of such an offer.

Well, I guess that they have already someone in mind to issue their new shares. It would be nice to have Buffett buying those shares!!! ;) Ok, I know what you think, but why not? ECCO

Thanks for posting it. Very funny!

As long as your barber doesn't suggest you stocks we should be ok. We are just at the beggining of that period of speculation. When moms and dads will receive their mutual fund annual report and see that they have made 10-15 or 20% this year. They will start to realise that it is better than 1 or 2% that bank give them and start to put more money into stock funds. ECCO

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/vox/fairfax-set-to-win-by-rebuilding-the-brick/article1259534/ ECCO

Fairfax Financial Holdings Limited (TSX:FFH - News)(NYSE:FFH - News) will hold a conference call at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, July 31, 2009 to discuss its 2009 second quarter results which will be announced after the close of markets on Thursday, July 30, and will be available at that time on its website www.fairfax.ca. The call, consisting of a presentation by the company followed by a question period, may be accessed at (800) 857-9835 (Canada and U.S.) or 1 (212) 287-1677 (International) with the passcode "Fairfax". A replay of the call will be available from shortly after the termination of the call until 5:00 p.m. Eastern Time on Friday, August 14, 2009. The replay may be accessed at (800) 337-4110 (Canada and U.S.) or 1 (203) 369-3797 (International). I cant wait to read it. ECCO

Warren Buffett on Sex http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2009/07/13/warren-buffett-on-sex.aspx Morgan Housel and Anand Chokkavelu July 13, 2009 Besides being the world's greatest investor, Berkshire Hathaway's (NYSE: BRK-A) (NYSE: BRK-B) Warren Buffett is a Michelangelo when it comes to drawing analogies. He is a master at distilling complex concepts into humorous one-liners that we can understand. And we tend to trust him because he only invests and speaks about what he knows. He develops decades-long relationships with portfolio holdings including Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), Wells Fargo (NYSE: WFC), and American Express (NYSE: AXP); while he's been known to sneak a peek at companies outside his circle of competence, you'll never see him stray to Google (Nasdaq: GOOG) or Cisco (Nasdaq: CSCO). What does all this have to do with sex, you ask? Well, we already know that Buffett tends to stick to stuff he understands in and out. We also know that his analogies frequently involve sex. Ahem. You can connect the dots yourself. To help you, here are our favorite Warren Buffett thoughts on sex! Buffett's advice seems to be to start early ... and we ain't talkin' retirement planning: On being active: "It's nice to have a lot of money, but you know, you don't want to keep it around forever. I prefer buying things. Otherwise, it's a little like saving sex for your old age." On career advice: "A few months ago I was talking to another MBA student, a very talented man, about 30 years old from a great school with a great resume. I asked him what he wanted to do for his career, and he replied that he wanted to go into a particular field, but thought he should work for McKinsey for a few years first to add to his resume. To me that's like saving sex for your old age. It makes no sense." On loving your job: "You want to have a passion for what you are doing. You don't want to wait until 80 to have sex." All this bedroom talk may have you wondering if Buffett is straying too far outside his primary circle of competence. Not to worry: On ninja-like focus: "You know, if I'm playing bridge and a naked woman walks by, I don't ever see her." On due diligence: "Other guys read Playboy, I read annual reports." On over-diversification: "If you have a harem of 40 women, you never get to know any of them very well." Of course, maybe we're underestimating how large his circle is: On internal yardsticks: "Would you prefer to be the greatest lover in the world and known as the worst, or would you prefer to be the worst lover and known as the greatest?" Sometimes opportunity knocks -- gather ye rosebuds while ye may: On investing in 1973: "I feel like an oversexed guy on a desert island. I can't find anything to buy." On investing in 1974: "I feel like an oversexed man in a harem. This is the time to start investing." An indecent proposal: On selling your business to Berkshire vs. private equity: "You can sell it to Berkshire, and we'll put it in the Metropolitan Museum; it'll have a wing all by itself; it'll be there forever. Or you can sell it to some porn shop operator, and he'll take the painting and he'll make the boobs a little bigger and he'll stick it up in the window, and some other guy will come along in a raincoat, and he'll buy it.'' Buy and hold ain't dead: On becoming a true investor: "We believe that according the name 'investors' to institutions that trade actively is like calling someone who repeatedly engages in one-night stands a 'romantic.'" Some insights into the current economic situation that make us wonder which of these he's tried: On the first stimulus package: "[it was like] half a tablet of Viagra and then having also a bunch of candy mixed in -- it doesn't have really quite the wallop." Solicited to buy Bear Stearns, and asked if he wanted more information (from the book Street Fighters): "It was sort of like having a woman standing in front of you who had taken half her clothes off and then asked whether she should continue, [buffett] thought. Just as he'd want the woman to finish the job, he was certainly curious to hear what was happening that weekend with the embattled Bear." On the speed of economic recovery: "You can't produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant. It just doesn't work that way." Buffett knew a girl who knew a guy who knew a credit default swap: On financially transmitted diseases: "Derivatives are like sex. It's not who we're sleeping with, it's who they're sleeping with that's the problem." We showed you ours. Now show us yours (Buffett quotes in the comments section, that is).

The experience I have is in the Quebec market, Brick should be stonger in other provinces, but in Québec it could take a lot of time before it goes better for them. ECCO

Abitibi and Canwest don't have time on their side (especially Abitibi). But I don't see why 10, 20, 30 years from now why people will not buy new furnitures. That being said, the actual recession is not permanent and if they can get out of trouble, it might be a very decent investment over time. Time will tell. Partner24, I agree with you that its not exactly the same situations. But you dont do that kind of deal if there is not a sort of emergency, i think the timer was on here too. Guys at Fairfax were definitely thinking it was a good deal when they bought the stock at around 8$, thats kind of look like the Canwest story. I also agree that people will still buy furnitures in 10-20-30 years, but is Brick gonna still be there? Leon and BMTC might kill Brick before. I lived in Montreal and I can tell you that service at BMTC is much more better than The Brick service. Every people I know that bought at both places had the same feeling. I might be wrong, and as you say time will tell. ECCO

I just hope its not another Canwest or Abitibi. But it look like another cigar but investment. Leon and BMTC (gbt.a) are much more well run and are strong competitor. ECCO

I should have write ... want to sell 6B$ of stock. Could have been worse than that. ECCO

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC - News), the fourth-largest U.S. bank, announced on Thursday a $6 billion common stock offering, as the bank faces regulatory stress tests to determine whether it needs to strengthen its capital. The results of government "stress tests" of the ability that the 19 largest U.S. banks can weather a deep recession will be released on Thursday at 5 p.m. EDT (2100 GMT). The San Francisco-based bank -- in which Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc (NYSE:BRK-A - News; NYSE:BRK-B - News) is the largest shareholder -- took $25 billion of capital from the government's Troubled Asset Relief Program last fall. While Wells Fargo said when it accepted the TARP money that it did not need the funds, its capital ratios are now lower than those of many rivals. J.P. Morgan Securities Inc and Wachovia Securities are joint bookrunning managers for the offering. Wells Fargo shares fell 3.3 percent to $23.96 in after-hours trading. The stock had ended down 7.75 percent on Thursday on the New York Stock Exchange. (Reporting by Juan Lagorio; Editing by Bernard Orrx

Forward P/E (fye 31-Dec-10) 1: 6.15 They are not supposed to loose patent on Lipitor next year? While loosing that, next year P/E ratio would be 6??? ECCO

Living in Montreal (french canadian, that explain my bad english) and as a BMTC stock holder, I can tell you more. The company is based in Quebec City, and is likely pro the Quebec Nationalistic ideal... This bothers me slightly, as does the valuation. The company is based in Montreal-east not in Quebec city. For sure Lucien Bouchard is nationalist (20 years ago he was not), but does that make the company nationalist? If it is the case that doesnt mean anything as long as Quebec is part of Canada. Also, if I can tell you my feeling of the "Quebec Nationalistic ideal", right now we should not ear seriously about it for many years to come. It used to have an impact on Quebec based companies prices but I think it is not the case anymore. But if that fact bothers you, you should not invest. ECCO

ubuy2wron " "this time is different "are the most expensive words in the English language after "I love you"" I like this one. :) "consensus opinions are comfortable ones ',they merely reflect the majority they rarely are a source of excess returns. Excess returns are made when every one runs to one side of the boat and you do not." Totally agree with you. Making major investment decisions on the basis of general levels economic activity seems to me to be overall a waste of time. There are very few rich economists. Ok, I never said you should not invest now cause recession might still be there for a year or more. Im invested 95% right now. What I said and what I think is that if something big happened, then consequences are usually big. I then expect this recession to be longer than the average recession. But whatever if recession is still there or not, today might be a good time to invest in some business. I dont care about economics. Analysts, economists are just there to distract us from the real thing: management. If you buy the market you should tried (good luck) to predict economics cause it is correlated, but if you buy individual stock you should care about management, the business itself and the price you pay. I think that, for many stocks, the price right now is still very good whatever recession is there or not. ECCO

Everybody seems to agree now that this recession is something "different", something like a 1 in 100 years events. Can we expect then that the lenght of it can also be a 1 in 100 years event? That being said, a 30 months (or more) recession become a high possibility event. ECCO

If i can had to your post Dr, I would say that BMTC Group is as you say a very well run company, with a perfect balance sheet, a big market share that make them dominating their market in term of advertising. Management is dedicated to shareholder as they increased dividend every years and also buyback share every years. They own most of the buildings they used, without any loan on it. Im a proud owner of this compagny for 12 years now. That makes BMTC a 17 baggers for me. Can i tell you guys that I like boring company like that! That being said, I expect BMTC to give me a good return in the next few years but not as good as the last 10 years. With BMTC, you buy a good company that can give you 15% per year over the long term without (almost) any risk. ECCO

by: The Financial Blogger | April 1st, 2009 (11:34 am) I thought it would be a cool April’s fool So that is a April's fool.

Annual Report: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/2008ar/2008ar.pdf Shareholder letter: http://www.berkshirehathaway.com/letters/2008ltr.pdf ECCO