Stubblejumper,
I don't think it is a fool's game or I'd be a fool, at least with my trading in and out of FFH and ORH. I was holding FFH and I thought ORH would get to $50 before FFH would get to $400 - similar to your thesis.
Nov/07 - Sold 200 FFH at $297.50, purchased 1500 ORH at $38
Dec/08 - Sold 1500 ORH at $50
Jan/09 - Purchased 200 FFH at $308 (and picked up $8 dividend)
So today I am still holding the 200 FFH at about he same price as Nov/07, however picked up an extra $18K on the ORH holding or 30%. I continue to hold the FFH as I think it will get to $400, before ORH gets to $65. I realize this is an isolated trade and not reflected of my entire portfolio - but I did make a consious decison to trade in and out of FFH and ORH, so I like the game!
Redskin