prevalou

their position is hedged generally for two years. They still enjoy great price gas/coal differential (dark spread) but not for a long time. On the positive side, reserve margins are declining in the east PJM aera and it's difficult to add capacity.

http://www.newsweek.com/id/206228 He wrote this a couple of weeks ago! I see no pigs in this article! Or he can change his mind very quickly!

a different point of view, backed by statistics too. http://www.mail-archive.com/[email protected]/msg166239.html how difficult to predict the market!

is it really possible to understand a bank balance sheet (including Wells Fargo,USB, etc.) ? I think that to invest in this business you have to trust management.

Taleb approach is very different from Buffet, from my point of view: -Buffet earns interest as time goes by (power of compound interest) -Taleb loses as time goes by (he purchases volatility and time value) In other words, Buffet writes insurance while Taleb purchases insurance

"Now ... would be low volatility would it not?? Back in early 2009, and late 2008 ... that was high volatility ..." I meant to say: it is an interesting strategy to implement when volatility is low

this stategy is suited to a low volatility context, not the present time. Moreover, there can be no black swan for a very long time. What if the black swan was the absence of black swan...not plausible but who knows...

Buffett is always worried about inflation. One day, he will be right!

the problem is to repatriate capital. HNR value depends heavily on this simple fact.

maybe there is a psychological bias: consistency. When you are used to retain earnings for many years, because you always invest well, it's difficult to change your mind and give back capital.

does someone have an idea about potential sales tax on overstock.com? would the company lose a competitive advantage (about 7% of sales?) thanks

could wind be a source of energy if there were no subsidies? At what oil price is it economical ?

comparing Fairfax and Leucadia book value is like comparing apples with oranges. Fairfax book is at market, not Leucadia. Certain items are understated (Fortescue bond, NOL, participations, etc.)

What about John Stumpf, Wells Fargo CEO, another Buffett favorite in its recent interview: "Q So what signs of improvement are you seeing, particularly with housing? A The inventories. Take California, which is a big part of our market. We had 12-month inventories of used homes a year ago. Today, we have 5 months. Today, when we sell a property on behalf of one of our investors, we get multiple bids." Who is right?

http://www.thirdavenuefunds.com/ta/documents/sl/shareholderletters-09Q2.pdf

I don't really understand Fairholme argument full of applause for the change in strategy in the generic business. they say that Pfizer in a couple of years will be number one in the generic business, a business they were not interested in before. But I don't see what kind of competitive advantage Pfizer has in the generic business. It is not the same distribution network, there is no brand, etc. They say it is a 20% margin business but what if every pharmaceutical company goes in this business?

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/775368/000095012309002112/0000950123-09-002112.txt for information

is there some sort of boycott by consumers of "foreign companies" which could explain the success of national companies in Quebec ? How can BMTC make 40% gross margins in the distribution business ?

does someone know how old is Yves des Groseillers ?

thanks for all these informations about BMTC. Is there something different with the shopping experience? Are they cheaper than their competitors ? Are their products better quality ? Or is BMTC a better known brand? Maybe someone who lives nearby can tell why they are successful ?

Has somebody an idea about the competitive advantage of Brault & Martineau?

what I don't like is declining volume with increases in prices. It masks the problems. Material companies like Martin Marietta do the same: increasing their rates with a declining volume. How long can it last ? What is the true earning power of these companies ? Often, companies that underprice their service are better investments, because their true earning power is better than it seems.

thanks. It is better explained by Buffett himself.

It is what boosted the stock price of BNI versus UNP in the past years (growing trade with China). I am not sure it is as relevant in the future...

maybe he made a great deal with the opportune sale of his Trane shares to Ingersoll and he is grateful...