prevalou

in 2012 Piketty wrote a paper with other economists to sustain Hollande presidency. Here we are in France after two years: high deficit, no growth, hign unemployment.. amid a lot of taxes.

http://oldprof.typepad.com/a_dash_of_insight/2014/03/missing-indicators-and-confirmation-bias.html?utm_content=bufferfa3d9&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer

Don ´t forget China foreign exchanges reserves are $ 3,8 trillions and it can smooth some capital withdrawals

No commentary on its five year track record. It becomes six years track record (2008/2013). Typical of traditional money managers!

another way to value investment properties, specially retail (marked to market in the balance sheet) is to look at the cap rate, considering space is scarce in HK and more and more chinese tourists visit the country. Considering developpement properties valued at cost , the margins are so strong that even with a severe decrease in real estate prices, they will be ok. Moreover, some of thes properties are presold.

Investment properties are marked to market but developement properties are at cost (and they are sold with strong margins). A lot of their properties and land bank are In the tier 1 cities In China. Are the market prices inflated ? It is not so obvious, although the newspapers say that all the time.

the plunge is due to ADT results that show an increase in the churn and more competition. Steady free cash flow is 193 m$ less 100m$ min interest cost=93 m$. So free cash flow is more 10 % than 14 % it's growing 30 % to 40 % including acquisitions

"During the nine months ended November 30, 2013, the additions to intangible assets primarily consisted of payments relating to amended or renewed licensing agreements, as well as agreements with third parties for the use of intellectual property, software, messaging services and other BlackBerry related features." source quarterly report What can we infer from this ?

cash burn is due to intangibles purchases. Are these maintenance cap ex, recurring cap ex, investments or mistakes made by previous management ?

excellent champagne ! Bernard de Nonancourt was the founder (an old brand he reijevunated), he was a great uncle of my wife.

Laurent Pierre or Laurent Perrier ?

I made a rough calculation about MTG earnings power. Suppose half of revenue is old book of business (before 2009) and the other half new book. The old book makes zero profit and the new a combined ratio of 30%. Then profit=(1000/2)*,7=350 versus market cap=2800 . Not bad if there is some growth but not a great bargain.

thanks SD. Then it is equity recovery and not earning power.To evaluate earning power it would be interesting to know the equity allocated to new book of business and apply a ROE. But what would be the value of the old book (before 2009) ?

SD, concerning MTG how do you come to 1,4 and 2,1 earnings/share ?

Has the battery enough autonomy ?

I disagree - following his argument French investors residing in France are as likely to pursue investment gains as investors residing in the US despite the higher tax rates. your assertion doesn't fit the facts: in France, french investors invest in annuities (because the tax rate is low) and in "Livret A" because it is tax free. They invest in real estate because the main residence capital gains are tax free. They hate the stock market where the tax rate on capital gains can be 60.5 % (finance law 2013): gains and losses are then asymetric.

following his argumentation, France should be a paradise for investors!

It is difficult concerning Dell to calculate enterprise value (market cap less net cash) because cash is the product of negative working capital. If the business decreases then cash decreases too) So comparing EV to operating income is misleading.

He wrote this article in june (french language needed) http://www.news26.tv/econmie/1976-charles-gave-economie-de-la-panique-totale-a-la-panique-magistrale.html

and other follow newspapers opinion...Look at JP MORGAN profitability during the 2008 financial crisis and after.

I remember Cummins and Steinberg writing In the last Leucadia annual letter that once us rates become normal, USA Will be the problem, not Greece...

There is a very important election for Hollande in june (nationale assemblée representatives). So rethoric must continue until june.

I think that in France left and right are the same thing: more power for the State to govern your life, your savings, your expenditures, etc. The elit (left or right) comes from the same school (ENA or École Nationale d'Administration). Hollande and Sarkozy have the same sort of advisers (technocrats), who know each others. They are socialists and pro-euro. I don't expect a great change: some rhetoric and symbolic gesture, then a pro-european stance after blaming the predecessor for the bad situation. I don't expect much spending but more taxes.

Actually, it shows the power of incentives.

That is the bad side of the markets. One can be blindsided by its positions in the markets. That is a good reason to prevent government officials from owning a portfolio of equities. Imagine a president who would own cemeteries, his obsession would be a lot of people to die...