crs223

Wow. At first I thought “this sounds similar to US corporate platitudes on DEI”. But it’s worse. From ChatGPT: The Chinese principles of the “Two Affirmations” (两个确立, Liǎng gè Quèlì) and the “Two Upholds” (两个维护, Liǎng gè Wéihù) are central ideological directives introduced during Xi Jinping’s leadership in the Chinese Communist Party (CCP). These principles emphasize loyalty to the party's core leadership and reinforce its authority. Two Affirmations (两个确立) The "Two Affirmations" were solidified during the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th Central Committee of the CCPin 2021. They affirm: The establishment of Xi Jinping’s core position within the Central Committee and the Party. The establishment of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era as the guiding ideology of the CCP. These affirmations serve to elevate Xi Jinping’s leadership and ideological framework as central to the CCP's governance and China's policy direction. Two Upholds (两个维护) The "Two Upholds" require party members and institutions to: Uphold the authority of the Central Committee of the CCP. Uphold Xi Jinping’s core leadership within the CCP. This principle emphasizes unity and loyalty to the centralized leadership structure of the CCP, with Xi Jinping at its helm. Significance Together, the "Two Affirmations" and "Two Upholds" establish a framework of ideological and political loyalty to Xi Jinping and the CCP's centralized authority. These principles have been instrumental in consolidating Xi Jinping’s power and ensuring policy continuity under his leadership. They also reflect the CCP's emphasis on maintaining internal unity and control amid domestic and international challenges.

Should outsiders be allowed to speak about BRK or FFH on this site? Would be better if employees and customers were the only commenters.

I find it amusing. Anybody suggesting that the US is about to be surpassed by North Korea or Cuba would be ignored. Why? Because it’s “obvious” that North Korea sucks. Yet China garners so much passion. Why? My hypothesis: it is “not obvious” that China sucks. The facts do not speak for themselves and require supplemental naysaying. Disclaimer: I am not a psychologist and I do not know what I’m talking about.

Being able to move in and out of positions on a daily basis makes decisions harder, not easier!

According to ChatGPT, these are common: Here is a list of large-scale military exercises that have taken place in Asia over the past 20 years (from around 2004 to 2024). These exercises often involve thousands of troops, advanced military hardware, and international collaboration. The list covers major exercises involving countries across Asia, as well as joint exercises between Asian nations and extra-regional powers: 1. Vostok Series (Russia) Timeframe: 2010, 2014, 2018, 2022 Participants: Russia, China, India, Mongolia, Belarus, and other countries (varies by year) Scale: Tens of thousands of troops Details: These are among the largest military exercises held in the Eastern Military District of Russia, which extends into Asia. The exercises focus on combined arms operations, live-fire drills, and international coordination. Notable Edition: Vostok 2018 involved around 300,000 troops, 1,000 aircraft, and 36,000 vehicles. It was the largest Russian military exercise since the Cold War. 2. Cobra Gold (Thailand) Timeframe: Annual (since the 1980s) Participants: Thailand, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and other invited countries Scale: Over 10,000 troops regularly, with larger numbers in certain years Details: Cobra Gold is the largest joint military exercise in Southeast Asia, co-hosted by Thailand and the U.S. It includes amphibious landings, live-fire drills, and humanitarian exercises. 3. Malabar (India) Timeframe: Annual (since 1992, larger scales in recent years) Participants: India, the U.S., Japan (since 2007), and Australia (since 2020) Scale: Large naval forces, carrier strike groups Details: A significant naval exercise originally between India and the U.S., it expanded to include Japan and Australia in response to growing geopolitical tensions in the Indo-Pacific. It focuses on anti-submarine warfare, carrier operations, and maritime security. 4. Joint Sea (China-Russia) Timeframe: 2012, 2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, 2023 Participants: China and Russia Scale: Large naval and air forces Details: These joint naval exercises focus on enhancing interoperability between the Chinese and Russian navies, including anti-submarine operations, surface warfare, and air defense. Exercises have occurred in the East China Sea, the Sea of Japan, and the Baltic Sea. 5. Talisman Sabre (Australia) Timeframe: Biennial (since 2005) Participants: Australia, the U.S., Japan, South Korea, New Zealand, and others Scale: Approximately 30,000 troops Details: Although held in Australia, Talisman Sabre involves many Asian nations. It focuses on amphibious landings, air combat, and large-scale multinational operations, serving as a showcase of interoperability between Asia-Pacific forces. 6. Shaheen Series (China-Pakistan) Timeframe: Annual (since 2011) Participants: China and Pakistan Scale: Large-scale air forces Details: Focused on air warfare, Shaheen exercises involve fighter jets, bombers, and support aircraft. It serves as a key element of defense cooperation between China and Pakistan, testing air combat skills and coordination. 7. Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) Timeframe: Biennial (since 1971, with many Asian participants) Participants: U.S., Japan, South Korea, India, Indonesia, Australia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and others Scale: The world's largest naval exercise, involving 25,000–30,000 personnel Details: Although centered in the Pacific, many Asian nations participate. RIMPAC includes large naval, air, and amphibious forces, focusing on disaster relief, maritime security, and combat training. 8. Foal Eagle (South Korea-U.S.) Timeframe: Annual (discontinued in 2019) Participants: South Korea, U.S. Scale: Up to 300,000 South Korean and 30,000 U.S. troops in some years Details: Foal Eagle was one of the largest combined field training exercises in the world, focusing on the defense of South Korea against potential aggression from North Korea. It involved ground, air, and naval forces in full-scale combat scenarios. 9. Key Resolve/Ulchi Freedom Guardian (South Korea-U.S.) Timeframe: Annual (until 2019) Participants: South Korea, U.S. Scale: Similar in size to Foal Eagle Details: These command post exercises (CPX) simulated war scenarios in the event of conflict on the Korean Peninsula. Ulchi Freedom Guardian often involved cyber warfare components and leadership simulations. 10. Zapad (Russia-Belarus) Timeframe: Biennial (latest in 2021) Participants: Russia, Belarus, and observers from China, India, Pakistan, Mongolia Scale: Approximately 200,000 troops (2021) Details: While primarily focused on Europe, Zapad 2021 had Asian components and observers, reflecting growing Russia-China military cooperation and the involvement of Central Asian partners. 11. Garuda Shield (Indonesia) Timeframe: Annual (since 2007) Participants: Indonesia, the U.S., Australia, Japan, and other ASEAN nations Scale: Over 5,000 troops Details: This exercise has grown significantly in scope, focusing on jungle warfare, humanitarian assistance, disaster response, and combined arms operations. It's one of the most important Southeast Asian military drills. 12. Peace Mission (SCO Anti-Terror Exercise) Timeframe: Biennial (since 2007) Participants: Members of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (China, Russia, India, Pakistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan) Scale: Over 10,000 troops Details: Focused on counter-terrorism and military cooperation, Peace Mission involves joint maneuvers, tactical operations, and counter-insurgency exercises, reflecting security concerns in Central Asia. 13. Yudh Abhyas (India-U.S.) Timeframe: Annual (since 2004) Participants: India and the U.S. Scale: Approximately 5,000 troops Details: A bilateral exercise that focuses on counter-insurgency and anti-terrorism operations, humanitarian relief, and peacekeeping missions. It involves infantry, air, and mechanized forces. 14. Shanti Path (India-Nepal) Timeframe: Annual Participants: India and Nepal Scale: Hundreds to a few thousand troops Details: This is one of several bilateral exercises between India and its neighbors, focusing on peacekeeping operations and disaster response.

And he waiting until Sep 28, 2022 to buy his BRK -- nailed the bottom @ $270/B-share! (I'm proud to say I bought some that same day)

Can’t a country just digitally cancel your passport? Why does it have to be physically collected?

I did not phrase it well. My point was: If an invasion in 2025 will trigger sanctions strong enough to destroy China, then the invasion will not happen in 2025. China is in no hurry.

China is not going to destroy their economy attempting to conquer Taiwan.

I recently read Buffett's letters from the 1970s. He described a couple periods where insurance was being priced too cheaply by his competitors. During those times he intentionally "reduced volume". Buffett has also said that insurance is a commodity. Customers are not loyal and there is no benefit to keeping long term customers happy (my interpretation).

I think GEICO concluded the same…

If I understand you correctly, you are suggesting that Geico: 1. Sell insurance below cost to existing customers with low claims 2. Gain customer loyalty/stickiness 3. Sell insurance above cost to existing customers with low claims Assuming Geico adopted your plan, how do you know they are not on Step 3 right now? Or perhaps you are saying geico should: 1. Sell insurance below cost to existing customers with low claims 2. Gain customer loyalty/stickiness 3. Go to 1

You could be right. One of the guys who worked for me (and now works at Amazon) told me that’s where I should be setting my sights if I wanted to leave. My old boss (founded a startup) said something similar. I’ve been working for a govt contractor - I’m not familiar with “levels” jobs and am going by what I’m told — you probably know more than I do.

I didn’t read the article. But here is how I see that quote: 1. Chinese call their nation “great” - long term asset 2. Chinese call their nation “rising” - long term asset 3. Chinese being poisoned by the food supply - short term problem I had been assuming Chinese were clamoring to escape and would describe the country as a hellhole — evidently it’s a great rising country. Every growing country will have problems like this. Take the US - richest country in the world cannot stop people from shitting on the sidewalks in Philadelphia and San Francisco (probably elsewhere too).

I would take 6 months off to build some kind of distributed AI/ML software (on my dime) then go after one of these jobs: https://www.levels.fyi/companies/google/salaries/software-engineer/levels/l7 I have 25 years experience working on simulation and modeling software (for same company). It’s been very fun; I love my job. i tap dance to work (to quote WEB). I live in a beautiful town and i make plenty. Funny when i wrote that post i was in a funk… but I since realized what was happening… I recently bought a car (been riding bike to work for years — now less time outside) and i was 6 weeks without playing basketball (healing plantar fasciitis).

If machines take over, the work will probably be done in the places with the cheapest energy.

In the USA, the major problems (outlined in the bullets posted earlier) sound like rot in the core of society, and more importantly future generations. i.e. the problems compound (in the bad way) over decades. The most obvious example to me is education. I'd love to be convinced otherwise... it's very sad. Some Chinese problems (stealing of organs, lack of western-style bailouts, poor building codes, lack of shareholder rights), if real, could be fixed overnight (not multi-decade threats). Low birth rate is the obvious multi-decade threat. I'm not convinced that "regime oppression" is as real/awful as westerners imagine... looks like they have made great progress over the decades with their system. I would not say the same about North Korea.

To those who are making good arguments about China heading in the wrong direction, will you please give your thoughts on the bullet points below, which are being used to describe the west? You guys would provide a good balance. Text taken from this long article. Widespread sociocultural and political upheaval produced by the emergence and rapid proliferation of an ideology that foregrounds extreme attention to issues of identity (including racial, gender, and sexual identity) and victimhood, a morality of collective “social justice,” and a revolutionary objective of universal liberation from historical “oppression.” This ideology, an outgrowth of progressive left-liberalism, is today colloquially known as “Woke” in the West and “Báizuŏ” (白左: “White Leftism” or the “White Left”) in China. It features what can be described in sociological terms as an “inversion of values,” or the subversion and reversal of traditional moral beliefs, strictures, and value judgements. This inversion means that the ideology manifests as distinctly oikophobic (fear of and hostility to one’s own homeland and culture) and ultimately antagonistic to Western civilization itself. This has resulted in sharp, largely generational divides over what previously were widely held Western values, such as the importance of freedom of speech, objective reason, meritocracy, patriotism, or the idea that individuals (rather than collectives) should be held culpable for crimes. A crisis of social atomization, loneliness, low social trust, mental illness, and drug addiction, contributing to a proliferation of “deaths of despair,” including by suicide, overdose, and alcoholism. In the United States, these deaths have helped to drive a fall in overall life expectancy. This crisis may be related to a broader context of sharp declines in reported religiosity and participation in traditional religious communities, as well as the suffusion of society by a more widespread, if less measurable, sense of nihilism and loss of meaning. A culturally significant background of persistent structural economic weaknesses, including the offshoring of manufacturing and an overall pattern of deindustrialization and financialization, the hollowing out of middle-class economic security, high rates of debt, and exceptionally tight housing markets that have largely priced out younger buyers. This has fostered persistent popular resentments about economic inequality and lack of social mobility. Rising crime, homelessness, and vagrancy as well as an increase in instances of disruptive protests, riots, looting, and political violence, reflecting a perceived general breakdown in social order. Loss of control over national borders and the normalization of illegal mass migration due to a political unwillingness to enforce immigration law along with an inability or unwillingness by Western societies to assimilate migrants into existing cultures and value systems. A failure in education systems’ ability or intention to transmit inherited knowledge and values across generations, reflecting a broader crisis of authority and institutional legitimacy and purpose. A breakdown in gender norms and relations between the sexes along with a collapse in family formation and fertility rates, driving a worsening demographic crisis that threatens the long-term survival of Western societies (although this particular crisis is arguably now even more acute in China), and a concurrent rise in the percentage of the population, especially among the young, identifying as gay, lesbian, bisexual, or transgender (LGBT) or other alternative sexual and gender identities. A significant collapse of public trust in major institutions, including across all branches of government, the law, corporations, media, education, and even the military. This collapse has proceeded alongside a broader decline in the popular legitimacy of elite institutional or “establishment” authority—a trend accelerated by the widespread adoption by many of these institutions of radical ideological positions corrosive to their own historical raison d'etre. A decline in overall levels of both patriotic sentiment and approval of democratic governance. Only around half of young Americans, for example, still favor democracy as the best form of government, while only around 40 percent of Americans and 30 percent of Europeans say they would be willing to fight to defend their country. Intensifying partisan political division, factionalism, and rivalry, producing growing risks of political instability, including breakdowns in the peaceful transfer of power and, in extremis, the potential for civil conflict or revolutionary regime change.

i’ve never heard of this podcast before. But I’d love the episode. I also listened to the PARA episode. What I loved about both episodes was that the host and the guest were not in agreement about many things… more balanced that most other discussions, I thought.

I happen to agree with the article, but I wonder if it is a) disinformation designed to further divide us or b) the CCP's actual estimate of US direction. In addition I wonder if the article is true or false. The article states that CCP believes "white liberalism" [rough translation from Chinese] has sent the USA into decline. If "white liberals" disagree with the article, then I will suspect it is disinformation and/or false. Maybe. I don't know... I guess like you I'm looking for someone to provide a counter-argument to the article and I imagine that "white liberals" will be the ones to do so.

Wow. That was depressing. Could be disinformation meant to further divide America. I'd be curious how a liberal views the article -- does China have it wrong? Is the US on the right path?

Hordes of journalists do not surround people simply for “standing”. Even in China — where your organs are harvested if your parking meter expires — you are allowed to stand. Would have been nice if this “journalist” bothered to explain what was really happening…

No — the opposite — keep reposting here! LOVE the gif @Castanza!!!

I’d like to know more about this, as I work in tech and have the opportunity to re-tool and triple my salary. I love my present job (over 20 years here) but I cannot shake the feeling that the world is shifting and I’m being left behind. For example, with a low mortgage rate and stupidly high home prices, I am stuck. It seems you are making three main complaints: 1. not enough time with family 2. boss is an asshole 3. Not enough time investing. And one benefit: 4. higher pay. Would you have stayed if they replaced your boss with a nice person? Would you have stayed if they doubled your salary? Would you have stayed if they let you spend 1.5 hours per day investing while at work?