New here, just sharing my two cents…
Don’t think the housing price bubble will burst, as too much household savings is in housing (heck in some areas there are lower prices limits issue by the government). These mortgages are owned by State Owned Banks which are the biggest players. If they won’t lend the entire system will come to a halt.
Been in China for about a decade now and the government will restrict housing prices when it grows too fast (doesn’t bold well for the young adults as they housing prices already exceed income levels), but when the economy gets a little soft, they will remove the restrictions and prices will move up again. Young adults will borrow, ask mom and dad to pitch in, etc. to put that downpayment, it amazes me the must owned and stay mentality that people have.
Currently, the property market has come to a screeching halt, the lenders no longer have quotas to lend driving up the down payment. Moreover, with whatever quota they have left, the property must be assess by multiple departments and in Shanghai you can only mortgage the property based on the lowest assessment (which for some properties that was built in the 90s are assessed at around 50/60% of market value). Lastly, for the seller, it now takes 6 months to have the funds release to you. Which for a majority of households is a deal breaker.
From what I have gathered, the current situation is dire for developers as consumers are unable to obtain the necessary financing. So companies like Evangrande, with high debt and servicing they are likely in a dire position (the sale of their HQ, the sale of their subsidiaries, are likely to be more of a fire sale, unless a white knight come to the rescue) as sales of whatever they have is likely slowing down as well.
