Zorrofan

I have been a FFH shareholder for longer than some of you may have been alive! I suffered the seven lean years and hoped for seven prosperous ones before Prem put on the hedges during one of the longest bull runs in our lifetimes. But facts are facts. At the close of 1998 the book value of FFH was $112.49, rising to $432.46 by the end of 2018. This represents a growth rate of less than 7% for the past twenty years. You can add on a bit for the dividend but it still represents a rather disappointing performance. Prem is quick to mention the results since inception but frankly the last 20 years have been lackluster and I am seriously questioning the performance we can expect going forward.

Anyone else have concerns about what happens to reforms if Modi should lose upcoming elections?

John, My concern with Bollore is what happens after Vincent Bollore retires? Does he have the depth of management in place that BRK does? Look forward to your thoughts. cheers Zorro

Clearly the environmentalists are doing more harm than good. As a result of their successful efforts at blocking Energy East and delaying the Transmountain pipeline they have created a situation where Alberta oil will be shipped via rail to the US instead, which poses a far greater environmental risk than the one they were opposing. Saudi oil continues to shipped by tanker up the St Lawrence yet they seem okay with Canada getting oil from countries where environmental standards are far lower than Alberta's. Nor do oil tankers in the St Lawrence seaway seem to bother them. Strange?

Sadly, it does feel like the end of an era is drawing near. IMHO what will be surreal is the first AGM without WEB &/or CM. Or will they start cutting the Q & A shorter, bringing Todd & Ted up to answer some of the questions? As to the Q&A, it will take way more than two people to answer post current management. Some sort of meeting will happen! They don’t want to give up on all those dilly bar sales! The biggest challenge to me would be writing that Chairman’s letter. That is a tough act! I'm just thinking the time has come where they will start adding new people, along with WEB & CM, to start preparing us for the inevitable.....

Yes, that would seem to be the next logical step. I'm thinking it may happen as soon as the next AGM.

Sadly, it does feel like the end of an era is drawing near. IMHO what will be surreal is the first AGM without WEB &/or CM. Or will they start cutting the Q & A shorter, bringing Todd & Ted up to answer some of the questions?

There are still 2,780,136 shares of Verisk held by Berkshire care of New England Asset Management 13-F filing owner code 01 02. Including both 13-F filings, it appears to have declined by -458,692 shares, or -14.2% of the previous quarter's holding, and it just happens that all of Berkshire's direct holdings were eliminated. More to come via my Look Through Portfolio thread. thanks!!

BRK has held a stake since before it went public. Was wondering whats changed, thought about valuation but WEB didn't sell KO when it was wildly overpriced so......

Any idea why BRK sold out of Verisk?

https://www.ferc.gov/media/news-releases/2018/2018-3/07-18-18.asp#.W1DKPNJKg2y Although the final rule maintains the requirement to file the FERC 501-G, the final rule makes adjustments to the proposed form, including automatically eliminating the accumulated deferred income tax (ADIT) from a pipeline’s cost of service when the form enters a federal and state income tax of zero for pipelines that are non-tax paying entities. This adjustment is consistent with the Order on Rehearing of the Revised Policy Statement in Docket PL17-1-001 issued concurrently with the final rule. The final rule also encourages pipelines to file an addendum to the FERC 501-G to reflect their individual financial situation. Huge pop in some MLP's today. FERC makes changes to form 501-G but does eliminating deferred income tax from cost of service really change things that much? In English please as my head hurts... thanks Zorro

Well WEB owns trains and planes so why not autos? I was really surprised by the move in to airline stocks. It seems to me that he used to hate cyclical businesses and what could be more cyclical than planes other than autos? They own a stake in GM already but again I'm really struggling to wrap my head around the airline move, especially given his past comments about doing investors a favor and shooting down Orville Wright at Kitty Hawk.

This is me thinking aloud and looking for feedback. I am trying to determine if this is an opportunity or a value trap....... There is a lot of turmoil in the whole healthcare field right now - from CVS facing a potential threat from Amazon, RAD selling stores to WBA, Davita and UNH striking a deal, to funding changes in Medicare potentially affecting skilled nursing facilities. But of course with crisis comes opportunity. Two companies I'm looking at are OHI and SBRA. Both are healthcare REITS and are deeply involved in renting facilities to skilled nursing home operators. Both have high yields approaching double digits, typically indicative of companies in trouble although both have been raising their respective dividends and can, for now, comfortably cover the dividend. OHI's main problem is that it has three tenants representing 18.5% of revenue under stress, with one tenant no longer paying rent. OHI is working with tenants and has reduced rent for several operators. SBRA faces similar problems as both companies have a number of the same operators as tenants. SBRA is selling and/or transitioning properties held by weaker tenants. Tenant rental coverage has fallen the past few years for both companies, dropping for OHI tenants for example from approximately 2 to 1.3ish. Skilled nursing facility operators face many headwinds. Falling incomes, reduced medicare coverage and higher operating costs have resulted in falling rental coverage. Government is looking at alternatives to reduce cost such as at-home-care. As skilled nursing operators have been under pressure many have sought rent reductions. This has called in to question just how sustainable is the dividend both OHI and SBRA pay and will they be able to sustain the current dividend going forward never mind continue to grow it. Both companies pay a high dividend and have been taking steps to deal with tenant issues. If they can successfully deal with the ongoing industry headwinds they could provide a substantial return given their current low valuations. But I am concerned that the industry headwinds could last a number of years and that this is a value trap. Sorry for rambling but looking forward to your thoughts...... cheers Zorro

Sadly, you raise some good points. My original hope had been that the Gates Foundation would hold on to the shares WEB donated and through their own self-interest replace WEB as our guard against all the potential issues you raised. I thought that a small dividend paid out after WEB & CM are gone would generate enough cash to meet the charity's IRS requirements. However it appears they are just going to sell the shares.

fareastwarriors posted this on the general news thread but it made me wonder how many will stay "loyal" to BRK after WEB & CM are no longer in charge? I will vote against any breakup, forgoing short-term gain for the long-term profit I believe BRK will continue to generate. What are your thoughts? "After Decades of Hints, Buffett’s Heir May Now Be More Apparent The pressure to dismantle Berkshire will mount. The bulwark against that impulse is his successor, whose identity is one of the business world’s best-kept secrets. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-07/after-decades-of-hints-buffett-s-heir-may-now-be-more-apparent" cheers Zorro