Zemergefen

Exactly! Hopefully this will be great for 2026 underwriting results.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/strengths/ Summary from Gemini. "The latest outlook as of May 14, 2026, shows that we are officially under an El Niño Watch. Climate models are now strongly aligned, signaling a rapid transition from the neutral conditions seen earlier this year to a potentially significant El Niño event. Here is the current breakdown of the estimates for the 2026 season: 1. Probability and Timing Near-Term Onset: There is an 82% chance that El Niño will emerge between May and July 2026. Long-Term Persistence: Confidence is very high (96% chance) that it will continue through the Northern Hemisphere winter of 2026–2027. Current Status: Sea-surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific have been rising rapidly over the last two months, with some regions already showing anomalies of +0.5°C to +1.0°C. 2. Potential Strength While it is still early, there is significant discussion regarding a "Super El Niño": Strong Potential: Some models suggest ocean temperatures could reach 2.0°C or higher above average by November 2026. Uncertainty: Experts warn of the "spring predictability barrier," noting that forecasts become much more reliable after May. Currently, there is roughly a 25% chance of a "very strong" event and a 50% chance of a "strong" one. "

Reduced my PainPal position

Great point about tax efficiency. Some context on my situation, in Israel we have a flat 25% capital gain and dividend tax regardless of income bracket or whether the position is long term or short term. I actually already have some passive exposure through retirement accounts. I have an Israeli account similar to a 401k (currently 100% in an S&P 500 ) and I still have a remaining 401k from when I lived in the US. Just need to find the correct balance for me.

Great post and a important reminder of what really matters - Family and health. We currently live frugally and are investing a significant amount of our income. I've been thinking that increasing my emergency fund from 8 months to say, a year and a half might be exactly what i need for some peace of mind

Yeah, That’s a fair point. I need to sit down and decide exactly how much weight to give a proxy like BRK. I could slowly increase my position there to reach my 'passive' target, rather than jumping straight into a standard index fund.

I have been investing actively since 2016 and was lucky enough to discover the COBF community in early 2020. that was actually when I bought Fairfax stock. my cost basis is around $450 USD.

Hi everyone, I am reaching out for some perspective on value / portfolio construction. I've always considered myself a value investor. However, year to date my portfolio is down while the S&P is up considerably. My current portfolio ( Fairfax 33%, CPNG 13%, Brk 10%, Nu 8%, insurance brokers 8%, MOH 5%, PYPL 5%, Amrz 3% the rest is cash and bonds). I don't hold any index funds but the opportunity cost of sitting out these broad market moves is becoming hard to ignore. Starting to question if my 100% individual stock approach is the best for me long term. Do you guys use index fund for the core portfolio and pick individual stocks where you have high conviction? What's your typical split between passive and active? Appreciate any advice.

Mazal Tov!! When the first kid swallows a coin you're in a total panic, you get to the ER before the coin even hits the stomach. When the second kid swallows a coin, you've been through this! you just wait for it to come out the other end. When the third swallows a coin, you just deduct it from their allowance. Only advise is to relax and cherish every moment!

Starter in DPZ

Where do you see 18 miles invasion?? Israel established a 10 kilometers buffer zone because Hezbollah have been using Anti tank guided missiles (mostly Kornet) to fire at Israelis civilian homes. These missiles have effective ranges of 5 to 10 kilometers ( 3 to 6 miles).

I understand your point of view but i find that view a bit narrow and too complicated. Israel intentionally decouples the Lebanon and Iran issues and that makes sense for a sovereign nation. While Iran does fund Hezobollah they should remain different conflicts. A US /Iran ceasefire should not dictate the reality for the Lebanon Israel border. Hezobollah has been firing rockets since 1982, but Israel’s startegy / gameplan shifted immensely since Oct 7th , they are not going to let a terrorist organization build strongholds and stockpile weapons on the border. Also seems that the ceasefire with Iran, allows the IDF and the intelligence teams the full attention to the Lebanse front.

Ohh... so if Hezbollah rockets are not new and almost routine maybe Israel shouldn't really do anything about it. It's just the way it should be... no issue... in realty, Hezbollah have been escalating their terrorist attacks on Northern Israel with the backing of Iran. There should not be another Oct 7th anywhere in Israel, and this is the method to ensure it. simple as that.

Hi, Israel did not initiated preemptive fire on Hezbollah on March 1st and defiantly not with the intention of provoking a response, this is inaccurate. Many insights above on why Israel is fighting with Hezbollah, none of them are even remotely true. The one and only purpose is the safety and security of civilians living in Northern Israel. including the safety zone \ buffer in south Lebanon.

Added CPNG and PYPL.