zippy1
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Posts posted by zippy1
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Apparently, the video is popularized by the exiled Chinese billionaire and the far right groups. The video looks genuine, unless they staged the whole thing, who knows.
It is a bit funny that the so called "fact checker" does not know the last name (Surname) of this Chinese billionaire is Guo instead of Wengui, which is his given name. ::)
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China’s Coronavirus Numbers Don’t Add Up. Here’s How We Know.
Anomalies had shown up in China’s coronavirus numbers even before the change in methodology. For instance, the number of deaths reported appeared to correspond to a simple mathematical formula to a very high accuracy, according to a quantitative-finance specialist who ran a regression of the data for Barron’s. A near-perfect 99.99% of variance is explained by the equation, this person said, referring to a statistical measure known as r-squared. That’s a fancy way of saying that the data updating the number of deaths was almost perfectly predictable. “This never happens with real data, which is always noisy,” the person said.Barron’s re-created the regression analysis of total deaths caused by the virus, which first emerged in the central Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of last year, and found the same variance. We ran it by Melody Goodman, associate professor of biostatistics at New York University’s School of Global Public Health.“I have never in my years seen an r-squared of 0.99,” Goodman said. “As a statistician it makes me question the data.”
For context, Goodman said a “really good” r-squared, in terms of public health data, would be a 0.7. “Anything like 0.99,” she said “would make me think that someone is simulating data. It would mean you already know what is going to happen.”
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Really? Can burning body cause so much smog? I heard there are only 3-4 funeral facilities.
my understanding is that there are 7 plus another one for muslims.
http://mzj.wuhan.gov.cn/bmcx/166448.jhtml
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I was told that one thing that is different from the 2003 SARS outbreak is that now Chinese employers have to pay their workers wages even though the factories remain shut.
During 2003 SARS, I was told that the workers were not paid. This difference can create issues for the Chinese companies that have higher personnel cost component, I was told. The change is prompted by labor law reformed enacted over the past 15 years.
Not sure whether this is true. I am wondering whether our Chinese friends here can confirm or reject this?
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R0 estimates for flu pandemics lie in the 1.5-2.5 range. Yes, Measles is much higher (10-15). An epidemic with an R0 of 2.5 could still infect between 60% and 90% of the population, depending on contact patterns and assuming no prior immunity. Not all might be symptomatic though.
The R0 for this thing is estimated to be 2.6 and some reported higher numbers such as 3.8.
60% of population and even at 1% case fatality rate is really bad. I can see why Chinese government would shutdown Hubei province and locked down a population of 60 million.
The question seems to be "would this be enough?"
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You may also find Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding's findings interesting. His recent twits are quite alarming and got me worried:
UPDATE: Transmission of #coronoavirus estimated at 2.6 by another research group (lower than the 3.8 initial reports). But 2.6 is still extremely bad —each infected person will infect 2.6 others. Even the authors admit #CoronaOutbreak containment will be very difficult.His professional profile can be found here:
https://scholar.harvard.edu/ericding/home
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As confirmed cases of a novel virus surge around the world with worrisome speed, all eyes have so far focused on a seafood market in Wuhan, China, as the origin of the outbreak. But a description of the first clinical cases published in The Lancet on Friday challenges that hypothesis.
The paper, written by a large group of Chinese researchers from several institutions, offers details about the first 41 hospitalized patients who had confirmed infections with what has been dubbed 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV). In the earliest case, the patient became ill on 1 December 2019 and had no reported link to the seafood market, the authors report. “No epidemiological link was found between the first patient and later cases,” they state. Their data also show that, in total, 13 of the 41 cases had no link to the marketplace. “That’s a big number, 13, with no link,” says Daniel Lucey, an infectious disease specialist at Georgetown University.
Earlier reports from Chinese health authorities and the World Health Organization had said the first patient had onset of symptoms on 8 December 2019—and those reports simply said “most” cases had links to the seafood market, which was closed on 1 January.
Lucey says if the new data are accurate, the first human infections must have occurred in November 2019—if not earlier—because there is an incubation time between infection and symptoms surfacing. If so, the virus possibly spread silently between people in Wuhan—and perhaps elsewhere—before the cluster of cases from the city’s now-infamous Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market was discovered in late December. “The virus came into that marketplace before it came out of that marketplace,” Lucey asserts.
There is an article from Science about this:
The Lancet paper in question can be found at:
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext?fbclid=IwAR186GhA9ZBSRGn0Chp-FjzPuUdNEyinsDvwyY4iAkui8wiEX-yMKAdimfk
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I think you will see Electronics manufacturers moving out out of China, at least partly.
Many of these are Taiwanese companies doing their assembly work in China. They are moving some of their capacity back to Taiwan and moving some of the capacity to Vietnam and Indonesia.
Below is a list of top 20 exporters of China to US for 2016.
The number 1-7, 9, 12,14-16 and 18-20 are from Taiwan. They will see very different tax rate depending on whether they do manufacturing in China or not.
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I wrote some WFC 48-strike May 17 puts.
Boilermaker, why you don’t short longer term put, say 1 year? The put premium will be taxed at long term capital gain and there is a higher chance it will expire worthless.
The premium is higher if the date is very short? Also, if you are doing this in an IRA or 401K account, then the tax is not so much of a consideration?
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Incidentally while it may or may not be true that Prem's daughter Christine wouldn't get a board position at any other public company, she's Director of Research at Sprucegrove which has $20bn AUM and which appears to invest in exactly the kinds of stocks that the "why don't they just buy quality and hold forever?" crowd like.
;) ;) ;) ;)
Well Done!
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Charlie Munger is on our group. Welcome! This is amazing and impressive. I guess he finally got himself a Thinkpad, or maybe he purchased and Iphone.
:P :P
And the divestment of daily journal!
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Yeah, get me some mobility as a service, so I don't have to park and get me some RFID automatic checkout so I don't have to wait in line to give you money to pay for my items and I could see it actually being pleasurable to shop/taking back share from online.
My understanding is that many traditional Asian department stores are dying and new malls are built as places for having fun/spending time/hanging out with friends instead of just purely "shopping." These malls seem to do rather well....
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Book value now $449 up 24.7% in 2017.
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Is it ok to ask for Charlie’s perspectives on WFC’s recent development?
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Is not the new tax benefiting BRK and taking away the tax advantages from Bermuda base insurance companies ?
I wonder whether the market has factored this in?
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I believe that they had used 10+inflation from around ~2000 when they were ahead of indexes.
Of course, their recent performance is nothing to write home about. But I think at least they have been consistent.
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I kind of doubt that a regular mutual fund can buy CDS...
I know for a fact that Longleaf funds, being invested in Fairfax, were aware of the CDS trade, but they could not buy any CDS due to their charter.
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So in the earlier discussion, there were concerns that Fairfax India may be a PFIC. I am wondering whether this turned out to be true or false? Does one (a US citizen) need to file any special tax document or put it inside an IRA?
I assume if there is an issue people may have to deal with it during the tax season earlier this year?
Will appreciate any insight and suggestions!
It is & you should own it in a tax advantaged account.
many thanks! :)
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So in the earlier discussion, there were concerns that Fairfax India may be a PFIC. I am wondering whether this turned out to be true or false? Does one (a US citizen) need to file any special tax document or put it inside an IRA?
I assume if there is an issue people may have to deal with it during the tax season earlier this year?
Will appreciate any insight and suggestions!
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http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fairfax-financial-holdings-posts-3q-090344501.html
TORONTO (AP) _ Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. (FRFHF) on Thursday reported third-quarter net income of $1.3 million.The Toronto-based company said it had profit of 42 cents per share. Earnings, adjusted for non-recurring costs, came to $5.17 per share.
The financial services holding company posted revenue of $2.43 billion in the period.
Fairfax Financial Holdings shares have climbed 9 percent since the beginning of the year. The stock has risen 4 percent in the last 12 months.
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Didn't Marty Whitman "defacto" retired in March 1st 2012? So if one calculate his performance since he started managing TAVFX to his retirement, how would he fare?
http://www.valuewalk.com/2012/02/breaking-marty-whitman-announces-defacto-retirement/
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Jim Gibson and team from Pacific Financial Research, who used to run Clipper fund.
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I would not do that. If by some means she has less money in 5 years than now she will be very mad at you. 4% is an ok hurdle but not low enough to invest in 5Y treasuries... which would make it a riskless arbitrage.
I find that helping people make money without managing yourself is a negative risk return. If you are right you get very little benefit and if you are wrong you could ruin the relationship.
BeerBaron
second that!
Ben Graham ruined the relationship with his sister I think during the great depression....
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It sounds like you are in a group that collectively does not get a big pot of bonus. In some companies, the bonus are not evenly distributed across different groups. The groups that make most money will get lion share of bonus.
Now the ranking is typically done within each group. And the "pot" of the bonus aloocated to this particular group is then divided by people in the group.
The real problem seems to me is that you are not in the top 10% or top 20% people in your group. Typically, these are the people that will get good bonus. The middle 50%-60% people typically are considered highly replaceable if they choose to resign. So I think you want to make sure you become a member of top 10%-20% group.
It seems to me that there are 2 things that you can do. You can improve your ranking within your present group. Or you can try to transfer to a more profitable group within the same company and try your luck there. Of course, in the new group, where you do rank is a different question.
Coronavirus
in General Discussion
Posted
Just to give a glimpse of what it looks like from East Asia(Taiwan),
1. International travels for tourism are down. Airports are rather empty. Many flights are cancelled
2. Companies restrict overseas travels.
3. Employees are asked to taken body temperature daily when report to work. Anyone with a fever is asked to stay home.
4. Riders of subway/Metro are having their body temperature taken before being admitted.
5. Companies are planning a "Blue-team and Red-team system." Some sorts of system to either separate these teams by time or by space are being worked out. For critical infrastructure companies, I have heard that half of employees are asked to go to another site that is 30 miles away as the back up.
6. There are daily broadcast on TV to ask everyone to wash hands often, avoid talking in elevator and avoid large crowds.
7. The government invested funds to ramp up medical mask production. It was 1.8 million per week in January. The projection is by end of the March, it will become 9.2 million per week. Additional funds are being provided to reach 13.5 million per week.
8. School opening for the spring semester was postponed by 2 weeks. masks are being provided to kids and teachers focus on teaching "washing hands and not touching faces and so and so forth."
9. My wife is a professor. All courses are asked to have a contingency plan to "go online." She has been busy taping her classes.
10. Large scale religious activities are curtailed voluntarily. I am a church deacon. We continuously discuss whether to go online or not. The catholic church in my city stopped weekly Mass last week.
11. Most of my physician friends are very concerned/worried about the overwhelming number of patients this virus can bring and the resulting breakdown of the medical system. This has not yet materialized yet. However, the feeling is the worst is yet to come.
Anyway, hopefully, we will get out of this ok.