zippy1
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Posts posted by zippy1
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1 hour ago, Gregmal said:
“Janet Yellen concerned about Chinas new export controls”…..
Think Janet is equally “concerned” about any of the US policy directed towards China or Russia? Even Canadian tariffs? Nah bro.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/07/07/yellen-says-shes-concerned-about-chinas-new-export-controls.html
I don't think the Chinese will take it well, if she said that she is unconcerned....
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Maybe because Shenzhen has more Tech industries?
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Latest book list of bestsellers in China (for first half of June):
In the top 20 bestsellers:
1) there are 7 books written by XJP about XJP's thoughts. They are ranked at 1, 2, 5, 6, 8, 9, 13. These are selected articles by the great leader.
2) there are 5 books about CCP and its 20th party congress. They are ranked at 3, 4, 11, 12, 20
3) there are 2 books for the preparaton of the political exams in graduate school entrance exam: they are ranked at 10 and 16.
If the bestseller list reflects what the party and populatoin care about, the focus appears not on the economy.
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31 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
I never lived in China. I have family from my wife’s side who lived in Hongkong and some of her friends and extended family still liver there but most have left. my wife speaks Cantonese.
I have worked in China for a couple of weeks at a time with a few tours from 2010 to 2015. I love Chinese food - Szechuan, Hunan and Cantonese (favorite is Dim Sum).
Sorry about that, Spek!
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4 hours ago, rogermunibond said:
The reply equivalent of if you like xxx so much why don't you marry him/her.
Superficially, that may sound like that.
However, I think Spek used to live and work in China. I think we should view this as an invitation to gain the first hand experience.
I also have many friends who had lived in China before. They had moved there in the 2000s, but moved out again in the last 3-4 years. They all felt the political winds have changed dramatically.
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1 hour ago, Haryana said:
Curious to know whether the Chinese also exclude the large % of discouraged workers like it is done in US and Canada?
Good question… from the link that I posted, they apparently do make the adjustments also.
Anyway, for all these reasons, I was told that it is ok to compare the Chinese unemployment rates between years. However, I should avoid compare these numbers to other countries’ numbers unless I know how to “normalize” these numbers.
In other words, the trend or the change are probably more meaningful than the absolute numbers. -
My understanding is the unemployment rate reported by Chinese Authorities has a different criterion than those reported by say US or France. France requires a person works 20 hours a week to be counted as employed. I think US uses 15 hours a week as the criterion. China uses one hour per week, yes, 1 hour per week.
For this reason, I am told that it is best to compare Chinese reported numbers across time instead of using them to compare against numbers reported by other countries.
In addition, this unemployment rate is for Cities and towns only. The rural part of China is not included. There are 700 millions people, roughly half of the population, living in the rural part of China.
the link to how Chinese calculates this is here:http://big5.www.gov.cn/gate/big5/www.gov.cn/zhengce/2018-04/18/content_5283601.htm
cheers!
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50 minutes ago, Luca said:
The agreement, to my information, was the one china policy. Taiwan is part of china and China and the US will stay in strategic ambiguity and neither of them will overthrow the status quo by force, very successful for the last decades wasnt it? Pelosis Visit is provocating because she is a high government official, talked with the taiwanese government etc. Understandable that china gets agressive, right?
On the other hand, i wish china would leave taiwan alone and taiwan could finally declare independence and i also understand that taiwanese people dont want to have anything to do with china, the US serves their interests more than china does.
US only acknowledged that China made such a claim; US just chose to not to agree or disagree with such a claim. In other words, US does not hold a position on whether Taiwan is part of China. US also does not encourage Taiwan to seek independence.
In terms of Pelosi' s visit, actually Pelosi is not even the first sitting US house speaker to visit Taiwan after US established diplomatic relationship with China in 1979. In 1997, then-House speaker Gingrich visited Taiwan. China had no reaction to Newt Gingrich's visit.
China just chose to react violently this time just because it feels it is powerful enough to intimadate its neighbors. Note that China even shoot mulltiple missiles into Japan's EEZ following Pelosi's visit.
I am not sure whether you realized China sent its navy ships into Japanese terretorial waters 11 times since this February.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/tokyo-protests-chinese-navy-ship-entering-japanese-waters/2917681
In addition, South Korea just summoned Chinese Ambassador and accused the Chinese ambassador interfering with South Korean domestic politics.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/6/9/south-korea-summons-china-envoy-over-us-ties-remarks
Not counting Taiwan, the way China is handling its relationship with Japan, South Korea, Philipine and India certinaly does not give me confidence at all....-
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12 minutes ago, Luca said:
Agressive behavior against Taiwan? The US agreed that taiwan belongs to china, then Pelosi with an Airplane flying there...who is agressive here?
While US "acknowledhes" that China made the cliam that Taiwan is part of China, US never agreed to this claim.
Pelosi is very welcome here in Taiwan. Like many fellow Taiwanese, I also welcome our friend to visit us. We can tell who is aggresive here. -
China’s exports plunge by 7.5% in May, far more than expected
- Exports fell 7.5% in May from a year ago, far worse than the 0.4% decline predicted by a Reuters poll.
- Imports for May dropped by 4.5% from a year ago — less than the 8% plunge forecast by Reuters
- The decline was so sharp that export volumes are below their levels at the start of the year, after accounting for seasonality and changes in export prices, Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China Economics, at Capital Economics, said in a note.
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10 hours ago, Luca said:
Taiwan also benefitted from the growing wealth in China, 26% of exports go there.
Actually, more than 50% of Taiwanese export to China is electronic component, which is then used for the assembly of phones, notebooks and other electronics system.
So this seeming large percentage of export to China has more to do with the locations of the assembly lines instead of because of "China's growing wealth" since the final products are often sold to places outside of China.
In fact, one can argue that "China's growing wealth" was from it being able to import these electronic components from Taiwan. This is why China has sanctioned many products from Taiwanese but has never sanctioned semiconductors from Taiwan.With the current US-China situation, many of these assembly lines are being moved to Mexico, Vietnam and India. As a result, the percentage of the export to China likely will come down in the future.
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People don't want to sell China semiconductors to be put on the weapons and shoot at the same people themselves. I wonder why?
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9 hours ago, Luca said:
Since China had one of the most severe lockdown policies and came out of lockdowns the latest of all countries i dont find the results unexpected. Look at US unemployement in young people during lockdowns:
The April number that came out a few days ago is also greater than 20%, months after the reopening.
not sure whether this April number can just be attributed to the COVID policy.
CCP appears to be making the case for the youth to go to the "countryside." If youth unemployment is just caused by its COVID policy, I wonder why this is necessary.
CCP probably is doing so knowing something that most don't know.
https://www.dw.com/zh/德语媒体新时代的上山下乡运动/a-65661636 -
I think it is probably not hard to use google translate to read this article.
I think it said the unemployment rate for age 16-24 is 20% in China.
http://opinion.people.com.cn/BIG5/n1/2023/0520/c223228-32690789.html -
1 hour ago, mcliu said:
I don't think it's comparable. Taiwan is China without CCP is like saying USA is UK without the Monarchy. No idea how China would have turned out if KMT won, possibly far worse. As Xerxes pointed out, Chiang was a fascist dictator not much better than Mao. (Turns out Azov is not the first facists that the US has supported lol.)
Excess Mortality under Nationalist rule[edit]
Historian Rudolph Rummel documents that from its founding down to its defeat in 1949, the Nationalist government under Chiang's central leadership probably caused the deaths of between roughly 6 and 18.5 million people. The major causes include:[83]
- Thousands of communists and communist sympathizers were killed during and in the year after the 1927 Shanghai massacre.
- In 1938, to stop Japanese advance, Chiang ordered the Yellow River dikes to be breached. An official postwar commission estimated that the total number of those who perished from malnutrition, famine, disease, or drowning might be as high as 800,000.[84]
- In 1943, 1.75 to 2.5 million Henan civilians starved to death due to grain being confiscated and sold for the profit of Nationalist government officials.
- 4,212,000 Chinese perished during the Second Sino-Japanese War and Civil War starving to death or dying from disease during conscription campaigns.[85]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/February_28_incident
In 1945, following the surrender of Japan at the end of World War II, the Allies handed administrative control of Taiwan over to China, thus ending 50 years of Japanese colonial rule. Local residents became resentful of what they saw as high-handed and frequently corrupt conduct on the part of the Kuomintang (KMT) authorities, including the arbitrary seizure of private property, economic mismanagement, and exclusion from political participation. The flashpoint came on February 27, 1947, in Taipei, when agents of the State Monopoly Bureau struck a Taiwanese widow suspected of selling contraband cigarettes. An officer then fired into a crowd of angry bystanders, striking one man, who died the next day.[8] Soldiers fired upon demonstrators the next day, after which a radio station was seized by protesters and news of the revolt was broadcast to the entire island. As the uprising spread, the KMT–installed governor Chen Yi called for military reinforcements, and the uprising was violently put down by the National Revolutionary Army. Two years later, and for 38 years thereafter, the island would be placed under martial law in a period known as the "White Terror."[8]
The number of deaths from the incident and massacre was estimated to be between 18,000 and 28,000.[12]
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Terror_(Taiwan)
Deaths At least 3,000 to 4,000 executed, not including 228 incident (18,000 to 28,000 killed) or extrajudicial executions[1] Victims At least 140,000 imprisoned Keep in mind Taiwan's population at the time was probably around 5m. So they imprisoned or killed at least 3-5% of the population.
It indeed is not clear how China will turn out if KMT won.
However, there are many places in East Asia that one can benchmark. South Korea and Japan were both sort of bombed back to stone age in late 1940s-early 1950s.
If we compare Japan and South Korea against China from 1949 to 1980, it is not clear that China's progress in this period was that impressive.
It seems that the great progress that China made since 1980s was really made more impressive by the serious mismanagement in 1940s-1970s. If one examines the overall progress from 1949 to today as a whole, it seems much less impressive when compared against Japan and South Korea. And there is only one ruling party in China during this period. One should not only look at the period after 1980s. -
34 minutes ago, mcliu said:
If you look at the mess that Deng Xiao Ping inherited vs. the country today. I think it took a lot of brilliant leadership and strategic thinking to turn things around.
I think it may be too early to judge Xi and the future is difficult to predict, but we will see in the coming years.
I think the question is whether China is turning away from what made it successful in the past 30 years or not. Don't forget CCP created the mess that Deng inherited in the first place. CCP does have that capacity to make such a mess. Just look at its COVID policy.
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3 hours ago, sleepydragon said:
Imo, these sort of things happen a lot in China. If you are in a position of significance,or MD level working in a state companies, it happens. It seems scary to westerners.
For many people what is scary (or surprising) is that Chinese do not think this is scary, IMHO. Which shows a completely different "culture."
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9 minutes ago, Luca said:
Would be my only idea, nothing changed with the buisness the last few months and china has just gotten more diplomatic and less hostile since xi secured third term. Maybe they wanted to buy more and noticed that the stock boomed after 13Fs so Buffett prefers just shopping outside of US because of all the cloners.
One thing that is interesting is that I cannot find an equivalent of 13F type of quarterly disclosure requirement for non-Taiwanese entities when they buy Taiwanese listed shares. It seems like the only requirement to disclose locally is in the Taiwanese companies’ annual reporting. That seems to be months away. And I think the disclosure is in “street names .”
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1 hour ago, Luca said:
Could they have sold ADR Shares and buy Taiwan listed shares?
Taiwan listed shares tend to trade at a slight discount to ADR. Typically 1-5%..
not sure that discount is enough to prompt such a hypothetical move?
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The stock market appears to be doing quite poorly over the past 5 years?
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6 hours ago, Luca said:
Quite the refreshing and positive speach, not so hostile, enjoyed the watch.
Speech itself may be refreshing. We will need to see their deeds to know whether these are empty words.
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There are many levels of so called "lockdown."
I think if this is true, then this level of "lockdown" is more extreme than what most people anticipate.
QuoteUsers online questioned the three-hour response time, wondering if the particularly strict COVID measures prolonged the rescue process. Hashtags related to the disaster have received over 2.3 million views as of Saturday afternoon. Videos on social media platforms WeChat and Weibo went viral immediately, showing what was said to be the building’s doors bolted shut from the outside with metal wires or wooden dowels that prevented residents from leaving. One resident told the Associated Press that elsewhere in the city, these makeshift barricades have been used as part of the local government’s zero-COVID efforts.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/stefficao/urumqi-xinjiang-fire-protests
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No change in the “no COVID “ policy according to the government.
it is in Chinese but not hard to read with google translate.http://www.nhc.gov.cn/cms-search/xxgk/getManuscriptXxgk.htm?id=39d316d555094db5b2a6a9eb97214a8b
What are you buying today?
in General Discussion
Posted · Edited by zippy1
I think CCP does present a great challenge. Having a realistic perspective about CCP is the first step in dealing with the challenge.
Those who said China is weak is essentially saying “business as usual” and nothing needs to done. I think that would not be the right attitude.
however, with that said, it does not mean that I would like live under CCP rule.
this is a bit off topic now, so I will just stop here.