zippy1
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Posts posted by zippy1
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3 hours ago, Sweet said:
Where are you getting those GDP figures from?Here is the 2023 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202304/t20230419_1938791.html
Here is the 2024 Q1 report from National Bureau of Statstics
https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202404/t20240417_1954640.html -
1 hour ago, charlieruane said:
Geopolitical risk seemed to be Buffett's primary concern, but he did cite "seismic action" once—though now I realize that was in the following CNBC interview, not at an annual meeting:
There’s actually a danger of seismic action, I mean, and where they’re located. But that’s a low probability and they, you know, they’re smart people but would I rather have it, there was a U.S. domicile company than be a subject of who knows what, depending on conditions outside their control?
He did say that. Although the whole Silicon Valley is in …
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The sooner people get this behind us, the better.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chinas-country-garden-faces-winding-up-petition-failure-pay-2045-mln-loan-2024-02-28/ -
"Hong Kong (CNN) —
Chinese companies are doing something rarely seen since the 1970s: setting up their own volunteer armies. At least 16 major Chinese firms, including a privately-owned dairy giant, have established fighting forces over the past year, according to a CNN analysis of state media reports.
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/21/business/china-corporate-militias-resurgence-int-hnk/index.html -
3 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
It’s not just that, some analog devices can’t be miniaturized, because they don’t work binary. Sometimes you need to generate a certain current or power output and a too small device structure won’t be able to do with without overheating. Same with a sensor - if you want to capture some photons , you may need the receptive area to be of a certain size etc.
I am kind of wondering, though.
Designing and building analog chips with old equipment that has been depreciated years ago, can be a great business.
I remembered that Linear Technology and Maxim used to have gross margin in 60%-70%.
However, XFAB is a foundry and not a IDM like ADI or an analog design house, though. XFAB's gross margin is between 5.5% to ~24%. I looked at their website which lists their fabs. As far as I can tell, most were built years ago. In other words, not much depreciation from the equipment.
It may be a good idea to check how many new entrants into this kind of fabrication capacities there are.
If they are going to buy brand new equipment for the new fab, the depreciation of the equipment will be different than running fabs with 25-30 years old equipment.
If one checks the gross margins of UMC and Vanguard Semi(5347.tw), one suspects that capacities are being added after the industry had very good margins in 2021 and 2022. The previous low margin occurred in 2018-2019.
Capacities with new equipment will have quite different economics than adding capacities with equipment that has been depreciated, though.
Just my 2 cents. -
2 hours ago, elliott said:
yes, time does not play to Chinas favour at all, least of all with their attitude.
still, for those that think that Taiwan is becoming more actively "independentist" (whatever that means considering the current state of affairs) there are some things to consider:
1- the independentist candidate won with 40% of the votes (or seats, cant remember), that still means 60% are non independentists
2- the party of the independentist candidate had also won the previous two elections, and the results of thist last one are the worst of the three
I wouldnt surprised if many in Taiwan were just happy with things the way they are, and so long as this is the case they care less about this matter than about employment, house affordability, and where will they spend their next summer holidays
Actually, in Taiwan, the spectrum of the voters is not between "pro-independence" and "pro-reunion." It is more nuanced as there are many different "answers"in between these two extremes. The president-elect has stressed that he is for preserving the "status quo." (which happens to be "de factor independence.") All three candidates chose to be in the "center" of these two extremes.
There is a long running survey by a leading Taiwanese University (Chen-Chi University) about this question. I posted the link below. You can see it yourself. The answers range from:
1) independence as soon as possible, (4.5%)
2) maintain status quo move toward independence, (21.4%)
3) maintain status quo indefinitely, (32.1%)
4) maintain status quo decide at a later date, (28.6%)
5) maintain status quo move toward unification, (5.8%)
6) unification as soon as possible (1.6%)
7) undecided (6%)
The numbers in the bracket above were from June 2023. The candidates have positioned themselves for the election accordingly. DPP was looking for votes from categories 1) to 4). KMT and TPP were looking for votes from categories 3)-6). There are all get votes from the middle categories.
As you can see, extreme positions are not popular in Taiwan.
https://esc.nccu.edu.tw/PageDoc/Detail?fid=7801&id=6963 -
If you plot the Shanghai stock index, the ShenZhen Stock index, the HengSeng stock index against Taiwan stock index over the past 20 years, Taiwan stock index outperformed all these three. If you plot the chart for the last 8 years under current Taiwanese administration, the gap is even bigger.
Taiwanese enjoy higher GDP per capita. The income distribution in Taiwan is more equal than that in China.
With a Taiwanese passport, a Taiwanese can visit more countries without first applying for a visa than with a Chinese passport.
Why would Taiwanese want to be a part of China?
Not only Taiwanese get to complain about their government, they can throw out their government if the government does not perform. If they live under the rule of CCP, they won't have this option.
Incidentally, There is very little reporting about the Taiwanese election in China this year. Probably CCP is worried about its own legitimacy in the eyes of ordinary Chinese more than anything. -
26 minutes ago, Spooky said:
But this is in essence my point - doesn't Trump's foreign business interests create a conflict of interest that may lead him to make decisions that are not aligned with US interests including potentially not supporting Taiwan? President Jimmy Carter, for example, put his Georgia peanut business into a trust arrangement.
@Spooky
I can see your point.
However, your choice of using Jimmy Carter as an example is really ironic for Taiwanese.
Jimmy Carter is the US president, who cut off the diplomatic relationship between US and Taiwan. Congress had to force the Taiwan Relation Act on him. If you do a poll in Taiwan about which US president treated Taiwan worst over the years, I think likely they likely would tell you that it is Jimmy Carter.
But I do see your point about the conflict of interests. CCP is known for "connecting" to the power elites in the democracies to affect the policies. They do not have to limit themselves to only one party, to be frank. -
17 minutes ago, Luca said:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/live-blog/2024-01-13/taiwan-presidential-election
Ruling DPP’s Lai to Claim Taiwan Election Win With KMT Set to Concede
- DPP’s Lai to claim victory as rival KMT, TPP to concede
- Taiwan is electing new president in three-way race
- DPP appears set to extend eight-year grip on power
- Election set to shape relations with China, US
It is an election that all three major parties all felt bad.
DPP won the presidency but lost the majority in the legislature. It would be more difficult to pass legislation now.
KMT, with its supporters being oldest among the three major parties, now faces an even more difficult future. (think: Oldsmobile)
TPP received less votes than its internal estimates. It was hoping for a much closer votes compared to KMT or even to replace KMT as "the opposition party." However, one consolation for TPP is that TPP is now the critical minority in the legislature. -
On Youtube, there are several very good interviews with Oriana Skylar Mastro explaining the situation and the calculation involved. I would encourage anyone interested in this question to watch these videos.
Taiwanese stock market closed near its all time high on Friday, January 12th. Both the TPP and th DPP candidates said that they would follow Ms. Tsai's foreign policy. If KMT were to win the election, the tension probably will be lowered somwhat in the short term. After the election, I doubt the new administraion will do anything. Certainly, anything but starting a war. China probably will rattle its sabre like it always do over the past 70 years. This, of course, can increase the probabilities of an accidental conflict due to increased military activities. But probably not a planned invasion right now.
Whether and when an invasion would occur in the next few years is not so related to the election today.
It depends more on who win the US election on Nov. 5th, in my opinion.-
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3 hours ago, james22 said:
Reading about this some, I can understand why they would think the inequality is an issue... It appears to be not only worse than Canada, Germany and Sweden, but also US.
https://www.csis.org/analysis/how-inequality-undermining-chinas-prosperity
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Is it really true that China has a more "equal" income distribution than US has?
I can't really see that from the data...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_income_equality -
Rest in peace, Charlie.
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31 minutes ago, mcliu said:
If this is produced with ASML DUV immersion tools as speculated, then what to observe is whether ASML will stopping shipping DUV immersion tools as scheduled at the end of this year. Also, will ASML continue supporting the installed DUV immersion tools in China? If for some reasons, ASML stops supporting DUV immersion tools in the future, then these phones will become sort of "collector items."
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1 hour ago, hillfronter83 said:
"Too young, too simple. Sometime naive!"
The famous quote of Jiang Zemin!
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One of my friends who had worked many years in China recently told me, there would be no financial crisis because the "debt holders" would not insist not being repaid. It looks like he is right.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/chinese-police-pay-cordial-visits-homes-angry-zhongrong-investors-urging-them-not-protest -
10 hours ago, Luca said:
Unemployment rates in EU member states, talking about Sweden, Italy etc. is boring, doesnt make as good of an article than the mysterious autocratic foreign country named china!
Luca, your point is well taken.
However, I doubt the Europeans use 1hr per week work as the criterion for being employed like China did, though. -
14 minutes ago, UK said:
Funny, but yet another wrong step. Fact or propaganda:)?
Historically, I think the youth unemployement rate tends to peak in July due to students graduating in May and June. Below link has the historical data. Maybe this is a case of "if there is no good things to say, don't say anything?"
Maybe this year's July number is worse than what can be explained by the seasonal changes like what happened in the prior years; hence, the reluctance in releasing the number.
https://www.macromicro.me/collections/22/cn-gdp-relative/21469/cn-the-urban-surveyed-unemployment-rate -
"China reports big data miss in July, stops releasing youth unemployment numbers"
"Contrary to prior reports, the latest release did not break down unemployment by age. The age 16 to 24 category has seen unemployment far above the overall jobless rate, reaching a record high of 21.3% in June.
A spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics said the bureau is suspending the youth unemployment number release due to economic and social changes, and is reassessing its methodology."
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/china-economy-july-industrial-output-fixed-asset-retail-data.html -
Hard to imagine failing to come up with the cash for only US$22.5m
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Property/China-Country-Garden-to-suspend-onshore-bond-trading-from-Monday
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14 minutes ago, gary17 said:
Taiwan's GDP per capita surpassed Japan's -
Gary
under purchase power parity, yes. Taiwan did surpass Japan and South Korea recently.
However, in Taiwan, the financial compensation for jobs in electrical/semiuconductor industry and the financial compensation for jobs in other industries can be substantial. The kind of contrast is a bit like the software engineering jobs and jobs in other industries in the US. I think in the video, they interviewed young people who have jobs with lower pays and also happen to live in Taipei area, which has more expensive living costs.
The semiconductor and electrical engineering jobs primarily are in Hsinchu, Taichung and Tainan. These places have much lower living costs than in Taipei, in particular housing costs. -
7 hours ago, Luca said:
Great watch too!
There is a big gap in what the Taiwanese education system produces and what the businesses need. Nowadays, the tech companies send people into senior high schools (10-12 grades) to give seminars, hoping to persuade teenagers to go for a science-engineering education.
The typically starting salary in Hsinchu Science Park for a MS student places him/her at around 90 percentile of Taiwanese household income. However, not everyone wants to learn science and engineering.-
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3 hours ago, Luca said:
Thanks a lot for sharing @zippy1 I fast read through most of the sections, as expected the basic line is again: He wants what's good for the people and for the country. Also, the section with focussing not on just economic growth and development but also on good development, is miles better than what's happening in the US. If something harms the economy and the majority of the people, the CCP will ban and regulate it, no lobby, no questions asked. Might seem scary, but just look at the awful healthcare sector in the US. The massive control of businesses over congress, etc. Sure, the US is the most pro business country there is and it's a great place to invest, but stock market and economy are two different things. What about wage growth for average joe? What about diabetis medication for average susie? How do the citizens feel? Where is the wealth of the nation? How gated are the communities?
I said it before, the huge inequality of where the wealth flows in the US harms their economic growth, political stability and sustainability. China knows that pressuring wages are stimulative for technological development and efficiency growth, they know that inefficient monopolies harm the overall economy and quality of life. Stock buybacks and dividends only get you so far.
The way that most CCP members will use this kind of articles is different than the way you used it, though.
one way they use it is like the following: if a party member is going to propose a policy change, they will check through this article to see whether they can find "support" to claim that their policy change proposal is to bring about the "intended results" based on XJP's thought. At the same time, they will check whether their proposal can be viewed as against XJP’s thought by others (including their political competitors/ enemies.)For example, if one is going to propose to abolish the Hu-Kuo system, he/she will check against this article to see whether he/she can gain support or can get in trouble or not.
Another way is to compare the article against earlier articles to check the difference to see whether there is any indications about the change of the “direction.”-
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Just want to recommend a great website for those who want to observe China. This QSThoery website is from CCP central office.
http://www.qstheory.cn/
This article written by XJP was published on 06/30. This was originally from a speech made by XJP in March, 2022. The reason of publishing this article after its first delivery likely is that it is the direction CCP will go.
I think members of CCP and officials of government will be thinking along the guidance of this article:
http://www.qstheory.cn/dukan/qs/2023-06/30/c_1129723161.htm
The article is in Chinese but should be translatable with ChatGPT.
China
in General Discussion
Posted
Some suspected that the Q1 2023 GDP was "quietly" revised down to make the Q1 2024 5.3% growth.
Of course, that begs the question whether later on the Q1 2024 GDP number would be revised down quietly...