Castanza
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Posts posted by Castanza
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27 minutes ago, mattee2264 said:
It is not completely made up. 2% is seen as low enough to deliver the benefits of price stability but also providing a margin of safety against deflation (which worries central banks a lot more) and allowing for the fact that a little inflation improves the flexibility of an economy preventing downward wage rigidity etc.
Even within the confines of a 2% inflation target central banks move the goalposts by changing the measures of inflation and many central banks also adopt a range approach with Powell's average inflation targeting the latest example of that. But at least having a 2% number that is pretty much orthodox in the developed world provides some kind of anchoring to inflation. That anchor will be undermined if central banks can just change the inflation target whenever it suits them.
For example if we decide it is too painful to return to 2% inflation and adopt a target of 4% inflation then what happens when that target becomes difficult to achieve? How on earth are you supposed to anchor long term inflation expectations on that basis?
In fact a lot of the problems we are facing is because the Fed extended its mandate too far. And as a result kept interest rates too low for too long and allowed imbalances in the economy to build up to an extend that normalising interest rates to a reasonable level is causing issues.
And also because the US government is irresponsible and is still running trillion dollar deficits when the economy is at full employment which is adding fuel to the inflationary fire which is requiring the Fed to be more aggressive than it would ideally like to be.
Yeah I’m sure the academics have reasons for their 2%. I’m just a believer that economies are way too complex to think a simple interest rate number or target inflation numbers can account for all the variables and effectively produce results. Sure they have a place, but the tool is beyond blunt. I’d argue it’s a magnifying glass vs electron microscope. It’s really absurd when you think about it and just start listing off variables of inputs outputs, geopolitics, local politics, birth rates, wild fires, bankruptcies, new businesses, college grads, job market (regional, local, national), innovations, technological changes, etc.
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13 hours ago, Gregmal said:
manufactured fairy dust 2% figure.
2% rate has always given me a chuckle. It literally did come out of nowhere and everyone just hopped on board.
https://sites.lsa.umich.edu/mje/2023/09/04/why-the-2-inflation-target/
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4 hours ago, Spekulatius said:
Guys, keep it topic. Oil up or down is the question. Iran has oil, but there is none in the Gaza Strip.
So far this just seems like standard bananas market volatility. Nothing substantial to suggest oil supply will be constrained at this point imo. -
4 minutes ago, rkbabang said:
True, but how many children did Bush and Obama kill? How many will Israeli bombs kill? I know the western view is that civilized people slaughter children with bombs not with swords, but the two are morally equivalent in my opinion.
Whaaaa Obama won a Nobel Peace Prize! Forget about all those drone strikes
But in all seriousness I don’t disagree with you. I think war is complicated and decisions are not binary. War is Hell and that’s why it’s best avoided….imperfect decisions in and imperfect world result in imperfect outcomes. There is so much to this topic and things and stories I could share that I learned from friends with first had experience but I won’t. In short the ME is one F&$ked up place. It seems this topic is drifting and not wanted since the other thread was deleted.
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4 hours ago, rkbabang said:
As far as I can tell this reporter Nicole Zedek is the only source for the 40 babies beheaded claim and there is no photo or video evidence of it. Remember that war time propaganda can get extreme on both sides and isn't always factual.
I believe the claim was 40 women children and babies with some beheaded babies.
But this really should t even be shocking. It’s not difficult to find videos of ISIS, Hezbollah, Boko Haram doing this and much worse things. I have seen photos first hand from people who were in Mosul that showed women and children’s heads on sticks outside of an school ISIS decided to target. I’m not sure people understand the evil that exists out there. Things that happen on a daily basis that make a SAW movie look like a Disney movie…..what the media never will show.
Could it be a lie? Yeah possibly….but Hamas is fully capable and likely to do something like this.
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11 minutes ago, no_free_lunch said:
There are a lot of stories of Israelis fleeing, 35% find ways to skip the military, so why do you seemingly favor one and not the other. I think both situations are similar. Both are fighting to hold the western world order together.
Who said I view those individuals differently?
Who said I don’t support Ukraine? I just think US involvement should be limited because of the issues we have here.
And fwiw, Hamas and Russia are two completely different scales of attack and warfare…
Israel has mandatory service for all citizens. Ukraine does not. Israel is constantly dealing with attacks, Ukraine does not. These aren’t even comparable situations imo.
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19 minutes ago, Paarslaars said:
So how are we playing this, diamonds and precious metals?
Who makes ink cartridges for the US Treasury USD printers?
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2 hours ago, Viking said:
My uneducated guess is the transition will take much, much longer than everyone expects. From everything i read there is simply not enough raw materials to go around. There are important bottlenecks that people are not yet thinking about (like China). And current government policy is being driven by… political objectives… and not based on what actually needs to be done. This of course means we are wasting time.
We will get there. But the process will likely be one step back and then one step forward and then one step back… My guess is it will be painfully slow.
Unless governments start up the printing presses and throw even more money at the transition. Possible. Which of course, will keep inflation high. Which will keep interest rates high.
Bottom line, i am optimistic. But expectations on timing are running way too hot… in my humble opinion.
All very true…there is no shortage of bottlenecks out there for the transition. Probably will be pockets of development sustained by govts (country, or state level) intervention. Governments don’t often take the most logical or rational approach to changes. Throw in a some economic disaster in key development or adoption locations and it throws a whole monkey wrench into the change over. Then you have all the competing markets of consumer electronics, other renewables etc. -
1 hour ago, TwoCitiesCapital said:
Agreed. I have been patient for years thru conversations my higher ups that my salary was out of sync with the revenue/cost savings I drive. Also doesn't make sense when looking at the rest of the industry as I'm "below median" on comp while receiving "above expectations" on most performance reviews. The most recent conversation was how I'm actually making less now vs 6-years ago when I was hired because my salary/bonuses haven't kept up with inflation despite promotions and stellar reviews.
Now they think my attitude is "combative" and "toxic" because I've refused to operate up to the level they've grown accustomed to since my pay doesn't reflect it and all I've heard for 6-years is "we're working on it" instead of seeing any results .
If I'm being exploited like this in a high paying, professional industry, that requires specific credentials for the job - how much more so people less competitive in the labor market? Makes you angry to think about
Frustrating indeed….Any options to leave?
My FIL works for West Pharmaceuticals and works on plastic presses, injection moulds etc. pretty much indispensable to the company and more useful than the majority of the plastics engineers. He’s saved their bacon and come big contracts more than a handful of times. What do they pay him? Like $28/hr with one weekend shift a month.
The so called “bottom rung” as described by the egg heads are often more valuable than they are described.
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29 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
Yea this is kinda emblematic of the decades old problem. Fortune 500 America has systematically ground employees down to where they just don’t have a real career path upward unless they move. Made them truly believe they are interchangeable and replaceable.
I’ve mentioned before my sister at Lockheed has a good job. But is probably paid 80% of the fair market rate for her job. If you go to management and ask for a raise they just tell you to wait til next annual review except even those never eclipse 3-5%.
My wife was super loyal to a similar large corporation because there was a decent work/life balance. She got offered 35% more from a headhunter with the catch being she had go in full time. So she went to HR and said she’d stay for a 15% raise as long as she could continue doing hybrid. They agreed and then 3 months later reneged and said everyone back to the office 4 days a week. See ya. She left.
Establishment corporate America is finally getting what it deserves. There’s reasons wages haven’t kept up with inflation now for 5 fuckin decades! It’s got nothing to do with anything occurring in the last 3 years. Hopefully the Fed isn’t fully able to stop the current momentum in favor of their lobbyist and corporate friends.
The last decade really amplified this too with big corps financing frivolous projects with billions in cheap capital; all while giving .25 cent raises and frozen turkeys at Thanksgiving.
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55 minutes ago, John Hjorth said:
I personally think there is a lot to think about with regard to the concept of "treatment" in todays medicine.
In some cases, it's to me 'just' a lie, diabetes being one of them. [Pardon my French here.]
Threatment as in 'keeping things in check' is certainly not the same thing as a cure [once and for all].
Agree with this 100%Western medicine has evolved into “let’s throw a pill at the problem.” The prescription drug usage rates speak for themselves.
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3 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
@Castanza I am not stating what I think should happen, but what I think will happen. By 2035, you probably won’t be able to buy an ICE car any more in Europe or the US. You can tell by the tech roadmaps of the automobile companies which for the most part have stopped development of ICE car engines for example (except minor tweaks). Europe pretty much enacted legislation to this goal as well. It’s not going to take 50 years until ICE engines are phased out for sure.
Yeah I agree I think there will begin to be a massive push from the top down to get this switch made. You can already see it in the manufacturing.
Will be interesting to see what types of business opportunities pop up in the EV repair industry. It’s going to be a bumpy road imo.
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1 hour ago, rkbabang said:
Exactly. Looking only at the fuel savings at the vehicle use level is a mistake. People think solar panels, windmills, and batteries just appear out of the ether with no environmental impact whatsoever and that they can supply the grid entirely. Neither is even close to the truth. We need a ton of new nuclear plants all over the country and all over the world if we are to have a hope in hell of running all of our transportation on electricity without a worse environmental impact than the status quo. Not to mention heating of homes/buildings and cooking. I really think the aim of the WEF/environmentalist types is to make transportation so expensive that people just move around less over all. Just about every policy they want and every issue they push is to reduce human population and/or make everyone’s lives worse. Everyone will own nothing and like it. All cars will be EVs, but we will suffer from frequent rolling blackouts and still have polluted air.
I mean the UN laid it out over a decade ago in their Agenda 21. It amazes me how few people look at this stuff. WEF wants the same thing.
CBDC - monitor and control spending
Move everyone into tight little urban centers with 15min walking cities.
Nobody will own anything and it will all be regulated and controlled from the top down.
It’s not a matter of IF but WHEN imo. What you choose to do with the info is up to the individual. I mean it’s a theme all throughout history. But we have the technology now to actually try to pull this off at scale. Might not be for another 50-75 years but usually things happen slowly then suddenly. I mean the elites are literally telling you what they are going to do and people just ignore it lol
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54 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
Isn’t that exactly what is happening ? The lifespan of cars keeps increasing as people keep them longer on the road -it’s now at 12.5 years. It has nothing to do with ESG either, just the fact that they last longer because they are build better:
I actually think that EV’s may not last as long and will get scrapped quicker. For once there could be battery lifetime issues and then the tech changes quicker and repairs of older EV’s will be harder so a 10 year old EV may be more difficult to keep on the road.
To your point, nobody proposes to keep ICE of the road, but at some point, we will have to start building new ones.
Do you think at some point once EVs become good enough with enough options and enough infrastructure to support them at scale; we will see another “cash for clunkers” type program to push people that direction? It seems like a tandem market will be a real pain for consumers and manufacturers. But this could take a long time to play out as well. The transportation market is so complex. . -
Ukrainian Men Abroad Avoid War, and Are Racked by Guilt
It’s one thing to do this in silence…or to avoid a war you don’t think there is any business being fought. But going to the press and having a sympathy piece written about you and your “guilt” for not joining up while your country is getting invaded is a whole new level of Fortunate Son. I can look back and understand to a degree those who fled to Canada during Vietnam, or those who chose not to join the military during the GWOT due to no real objective post 2011…after all GWOT was a voluntary war….but your literal home is being invaded, your friends went off to fight for it and you flee to Canada for “school”.
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1 hour ago, CorpRaider said:
I know several people on it and the weight loss I have observed is remarkable. Sounds like it has an effect similar to early bariatric surgery or something (feeling of fullness/nausea if you eat). They say they don't even want wine/alcohol.
What income class and demographic are they from if you don’t mind sharing. -
Why is everyone assuming all these obese people will want to take GLP-1s for weight loss? There is a lot of “fat and happy” people out there who simply couldn’t be bothered and enjoy their daily fast food/soda. This also ignores the psychological aspect of fast food (addiction and comfort/coping).
The demographics and class structure doesn’t exactly line up with who is likely to buy or pursue these drugs imo. But I guess that could change based on accessibility and affordability.
92% of cosmetic surgeries (breast, nose, lipo, tummy) in the US are for women.
89% of liposuction patients are women
80% of gastric band surgeries are performed on women
~70% of the above are white women
~15% African American
Overwhelming majority of cosmetic surgeries are done by upper middle and upper class people. Trends heavily up as income rises.
35% of women eat fast food daily
38% of men eat fast food daily
42% of African-Americans eat fast food daily
37% of Whites eat fast food daily
35% of Hispanics eat fast food daily
30% of Asians eat fast food daily
The middle class eats the most fast food followed by low income and then the wealthy.
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22 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
Get back to us once you are over 50 and let us know how this works for you, especially with 2/3 meals being junk food.
Start following Gen McCrystal routine. 1hr of jogging in the morning and 1 big meal a day.
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I thought there were a bunch of side effects with Ozempic?
Loss of bone mass, cartilage, tissue etc. There was also a UK report about thyroid issues etc.
Something tells me this is going to be too good to be true. Plus if you’re a guy why tf would you take Ozempic when you could just get TRT online shipped to your house lose weight and get shredded? Side effects are generally manageable if you don’t go nuts and you can still pretty much eat whatever you want.
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1 minute ago, Gregmal said:
What’s he saying? Haven’t kept up with Twitter since they required an account to view stuff. Always valued wabuffos thoughts.
Pretty much consumer spending looks good (sales up yoy). Retail inflation coming down (COST CEO). Housing looks better, consumer debt not really that bad etc.Dont want to speak for you @wabuffo but just highlighting the data you highlight on twitter vs the sentiments we see blasted across the media.
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20 minutes ago, Gregmal said:
I just dont know why people keep making claims about "the top"...Last I checked we never regained ATHs. And last I checked, the last couple months tons of stuff is wayyyy off the highs. Is this again just a byproduct of people staring at the index trackers or are they not paying attention to whats really going on?
Good exercise is to look at retail stocks…then go look at Wabuffo’s Twitter account. -
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd-lots/id1056200096?i=1000628671006
Thought this was an interesting perspective that highlights some of the current mindset people have with markets. Helps me flesh out the difference in sentiment vs metrics.
Is anyone else noticing (maybe just the algos for me) on fintwit the divvy portfolio push? Seeing a lot of people pushing dividend income over longterm share appreciation. It’s like a “rent your income” type of thing… Seems like a byproduct of people’s obsession with the “coming market crash”, economic outlook, housing market, etc. and as a result reaching for income security in the short term.
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10 hours ago, 50centdollars said:
who voted these clowns in?
Something tells me you might enjoy this Twitter account
https://x.com/trudeaus_ego/status/1706453975061475605?s=46Sad to see Canada and the US in the state they are in. Politicians are so out of touch with what the people want or what’s best for both countries it’s starting to look like France just before the chateaus started burning.
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Defense contractors
in General Discussion
Posted
That becomes more difficult with how advanced equipment becomes. LMTs first jet airplane was built with 6 full stack engineers in 143 days (concept -> production). The stuff coming out today is incredibly complex. Where do you get the capacity for scale? I would think you need very complex facilities. Also with how co reacted out small parts are, I would think this “extra capacity” would be more difficult out down chain as you move towards the smaller suppliers. Likely would be harder for them to justify this “just in case” capacity with their much smaller budgets.