Castanza
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Posts posted by Castanza
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Sparrow plus Coldcard
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Equally weighted 10%
- SCHD
- ITA (or something similar)
- BRKb
- FFH
- MSFT
- NFLX
- CPRT
- WFG
- TPL
- GLD (or t-bills)
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There is a lot of amazing inventions that were obvious in hindsight. The idea of the steam engine existed since antiquity but was never applied commercially until the Industrial Revolution. Bread existed for 14,000 years, yet nobody sliced it and sold it until 1928. Pockets didn’t exist in clothes until the 13th century. Gunpowder took awhile before it was used for weaponry. The cotton gin…people picked it by hand for thousands of years….
Point being, BTC absolutely was a genius invention; no ifs, ands or buts about it.
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7 hours ago, dealraker said:
Some forty years ago I began to acknowledge my own false bravado as a sustainable investment model. For me, as opposed to Parsad (who I both admire and support as to his view here), I'm unable to heavily overweight new positions as to my total investments particularly when it involves selling in a taxable account and paying massive tax. I did, and it largely came from processing Parsad's message to me, wipe out my retirement account and go to a more condensed portfolio. The outcome? Simply fantastic.
But what I am getting to is I think overall the China game is false bravado. It is fine that Charlie Munger could go here, but few are like he was. One of my insights as to this is reading British/English history, particularly the Wars of the Roses era of absolute gyrating politics, the behavior of those taking sides and simply how fragile both beliefs and bravo was. One shout in the field during crisis and everybody ran...and I mean everybody.
I got out of debt and the insurance business in 1994 and I pledged on my knees to my inner self never to do it again. "It" involved getting to know myself. After acknowledging to myself who I am? Amazing stuff came.
Best with China is to know yourself most of all. Who are you and what are you going to do with all the mouthing, threats, and crazy beliefs surely coming as to it all. That said, I'll wager a boom upwards at some point too. Castanza too though has a valid point that the US jargon is in game too. That jargon is going to ratchet up intermittently even if those chanting are in business and making money there. Count on it.
Life is great...if you can stand it!
Appreciate the perspective -
11 hours ago, Parsad said:
But Hong Kong was handed back to China...not invaded. They could do whatever they want with it after that and they did. Russia invaded Ukraine. I don't understand how you can't see the difference.
Cheers!
It's called a soft takeover. Different means to a similar end. Both are bad imo. One chose immense violence and the other chose corrupt legalese and political influence. The only reason Hong Kong didn't continue to get coverage was Covid started to take off.
11 hours ago, Parsad said:Yeah, I have no problem with that. If you want to take the risk of investing in a foreign country fine. But if at the same time, that country invades another sovereign nation, and the world decides they are going to sanction that country by confiscating global assets, that is the political risk you are exposed to. Suck it up! You accepted that risk as well. Cheers!
12 hours ago, Parsad said:Because Russia was invaded! If anyone should know better, it should be Russia. Cheers!
12 hours ago, Parsad said:What??!!! If you have offshore assets, the biggest tax collector is your own government.
Risk is risk...doesn't matter whether if it is economic, political or anything else...nor who instigates the catalyst for that risk. Caveat emptor!
Cheers!
Again, you're missing my simple point by overcomplicating and going well beyond what I said....
I'm talking about ADRs and ADRs only. The fact is and supporting evidence shows, the biggest threat to YOU as an American retail investor owning ADRs of foreign companies is the US Govt blocking ownership or freezing assets.
Main Point: Everyone was blaming Russia and China or saying they are the biggest threat to holding ADR shares. When in actuality so far the US govt has been the perpetrator. I'm not whining about it; I knew it was definitely a possibility when I bought the shares (hence the beer sized position). Frankly I expected it. This is also why I don't own Chinese equities even though some look dirt cheap.
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23 minutes ago, Spekulatius said:
@Castanza also bought the shares after the invasion to Ukraine deeply discounted, so it was a clear gamble which so far has not panned out.
That’s fine and I accept that risk. It’s just my opinion that the biggest risk to your foreign investment shouldn’t be your own govt. -
2 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:
I have not tracked all the issues with this because I would have never invested in Russia to begin with, but I thought besides the US blocking these, the Russians passed a law saying ownership had to be by Russians? Is that not correct?
That's not correct. OFAC is the main problem for US investors. Other countries have similar issues.
More can be read about it on the Sberbank thread.
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10 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:
The federal government is not your risk manager. Wall Street will sell you anything they can make a buck on. Buyer beware.
Then stop trying to managing my risk by blocking ADRs....Allow me to trade the ADR's I wish and if Russia decided to block my shares then that's my mistake and my risk. Same for China and any other country. Not sure how I can make this more clear for you lol
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+ = US Gov't/Policy
+ = US Citizens
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16 minutes ago, ICUMD said:
Seems like a lot of the Mexican drug trade entering the US is a result of the smuggling of American firearms into Mexico, arming the drug cartels.
Apparently there is only one legal gun shop in all of Mexico, under military control.
Now that's irony!
https://www.marketplace.org/2023/10/19/how-a-booming-gun-business-in-the-u-s-arms-mexicos-cartels/
Yes and gun crime went up with the ban for law abiding citizens ownership....irony
15 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:Russia has not been a US ally or friend for decades so unless you bought during WWII I fail to see your point.
1. You said Russia securities are banned because of the current invasion of Ukraine
2. I said ok, why are Chinese and MX securities not banned because of the current drug situation
3. You said the drug history goes back further in time then the quoted 6 years
4. And I said yeah and Russia Ukraine conflicts go back further as well so why are securities only banned now?
5. You said securities of KNOWN enemies should be banned or excepted to be banned.
So why the inconsistency is my point...and why the double standards on which equities to ban. That is my point. Russia and China have both invaded countries in the last 5 years. Yet every talking head on the news and hedge fund manager is saying "We need to start investing in China." When China is doing far more directly against the US than Russia is.
Blocking investments is just a stupid way to handle the situation. Either let people assume their own risk and invest where they want (free market) or don't and block all foreign adversarial exchanges. I knew the risk when investing in Russian ADRs...that's why it was a small beer money bet. But my initial point was pointing out the hypocrisy that it wasn't Russia who stole my shares....it was the US.
6 hours ago, Parsad said:Also, it was a handover by the British government, not China invading Hong Kong
That was decades ago and although linked, it was different than the conflict in 2018-2020....
China broke the agreement to maintain the segregation of govt and laws in Hong Kong post handover from the British. CCP worked their way into Hong Kong through legislative annexation. They imprisoned protesters and advocates of democracy since the mid 2000's and additional change in 2018-19 basically removed all freedom or independence of Hong Kong. Simply a different approach.
Many many changes
- Freedom of press gone
- Bogus elections with CCP stooges put in office
- Extradition laws on the books and anti protest/democracy laws put in place to silence any dissident.
Same thing China will likely do with Taiwan imo....China is damn good at invading through means of the nuanced legal process with no small degree of corruption.
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All this to be said: Investing in foreign countries comes with risk 100000%. But that risk is not consistent and often times the risk does not come from the foreign power. It comes from out own country. So to the initial post I responded to....Russia was not the problem with Russian ADR's....it was the US who screwed it's own citizen shareholders. Some consistency from OUR government would be nice. Either make it clear what we can and cannot invest in or don't interfere. Also the brokerages are to blame to an extent. Some of them took it upon themselves to block ADR's and I think that's very wrong. Right in line with banks choosing to lock up finances of businesses they don't support. That's not capitalism and free market.
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3 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:
Drugs have been flooding this country far longer than 6 years. I remember the first drug czar decades ago. The only thing that changes is the drugs and countries involved. Americans need to learn to stop using drugs. If there wasn't a demand the supply would not matter.
I feel like investing in any foreign country that is KNOWN enemy of the United States, such as Russia, China, etc will likely end up with a bad outcome on a long enough timeline.
So which is it? The here and now that matters for which equities are banned and blocked? Or further back in history? Because Russia owned Ukraine a dozen times over the last 800 years. I also seem to remember Russia being a vital ally to the US during WWII....again...inconsistency regarding actions in both the historical and present perspectives.
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41 minutes ago, Gmthebeau said:
Russia invaded another country. There are consequences to that, same as if China does. ASML was asked to not sell certain equipment to China. Imagine if they don’t comply. There would be consequences from the US government. It is simply better to stick to home cooking otherwise you are taking on political and other unforeseen risks.
China and Mexico are flooding our country with Fentanyl which has killed close to 500k US citizens in the last 6 years.…are their equities banned? China took over Hong Kong just a few years ago…they also leaked a virus that killed millions globally and caused untold amounts of financial damage.
There is zero consistency to this nonsense. “Morality” and investing don’t go hand in hand.
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8 hours ago, Gmthebeau said:
China is completely uninvestable in my opinion. Jim Rogers been pumping China for decades now. I can't imagine how much he must have lost. It's a communist country. Your money will disappear completely someday just like it did for those who invested in Russia. There are a lot easier things to do than trust China.
My Sberbank investment in Russia is actually mostly impossible to access because of the US not Russia. My 5k investment that’s worth 45k is just stuck….in limbo until the US decides to allow ADRs again if ever.
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2 hours ago, Cevian said:
+1 Agree
Also, I always find it interesting how "capitalists" mention "stimulus" in the same breath
100% on the stimulusAmerica is quickly becoming a Corporatacracy with an overly political and corrupt judicial/legislative system. That’s a recipe for destruction of capitalism. Look at our presidents and look at congress lol zero leadership. It’s been almost 3 years now since Congress has allowed bills to be amended on the floor. 100% of them are written and handled by a handful of people (mainly lobbyists) behind closed doors.
Don’t get me wrong, I much prefer the US system to anything else out there. Its short term benefits are unmatched in history. Capitalism will always struggle with the above but its flavors exists on a sliding scale based on current political appetite and environment. I guess the question always is how far can you stray and still be able to find your way back to something that resembles your founding principles. Looking at the panel of presidential candidates…..well nothing inspiring there to say the least….
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On 1/18/2024 at 2:50 PM, rkbabang said:
I have to admit I've never gotten the expensive watch thing. I've always worn a $50-$75 watch and they have always told good time, lasted for years, and looked fine. Now I have an Apple Watch and it tells time and does some other stuff too which is why I'm willing to spend more than I ever have for a watch before. But even though I consider them expensive, I can buy a New Apple watch every 5 years for the rest of my life and not spend what people spend on these other watches that do nothing but tell time. People have tried to explain this to me before, but I don't think I'll ever get it.
I think about them like a heirloom of sorts. My Dad wears a Tudor that he got from his Dad in his will. I’ll probably get it one day as well.
Purely mechanical devices are just interesting and can last a very long time. Sometimes analog is just better. I got my Nomos when my son was born this last year. Plan to give it to him down the line. Prior to this I wore a cheap Casio…still wear it for house work etc.
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44 minutes ago, ICUMD said:
Ultimately, capitalism is the only model that works to bring prosperity. India has now realized it. China will need to get back to it if they want to resurrect their economy. Outside this model, there is only 'uncommon prosperity'.
China will need to resort to stimulus and open their markets if they want any hope of making economic progress. Maybe they will take another year or two, but I don't see any way out.
Also, they will need to be more open and friendly to FDI.
I doubt they will want to be left behind as it's neighbors rise economically around them.
Although I agree that Capitalism is the way I think you’re a bit short sighted to think China is just going to disappear. China has been around for 3500+ years. The US and other capitalist nations have barely been around for 200 years. The jury is out on how this goes long term for capitalism. I’m seeing a few cracks in the US and to me they seem to be a result of capitalism and growth/success culture at all costs. Short term, so far it does wonders. But if survivability and endurance is your game, there are other models out there that have clearly worked for a long time. I think over the next 100-200 years it will become apparent whether unfettered individual growth/success is a recipe for the long term survival l of a nation. -
On 1/21/2024 at 5:08 AM, Sweet said:
Wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Bitcoin was created by a government to ensnare criminals paedos etc.Nah, there has been so many former and current NSA members and security experts who comment on this question frequently. The NSA could and definitely has the talent to develop something like that, but really there is no reason to do so. They have a 1000 and one other techniques of acquiring the data. Project PRISM and Pegasus come to mind. They don't need to create a crypto currency to track down black market money flows. The NSA is extremely talented and tbh BTC is probably way below their capabilities. Plus you can read the code yourself. It's tantamount to saying Linux is a govt run OS with backdoors as well. A lot of terrorists use Monero and other crypto currencies as well cash.
BTC emerged just after the 2008 crash as an alternative to govt backed currencies. Do you really think the NSA development BTC with a plan to launch it after the next financial crisis in the country with zero way of knowing whether it would be adopted or not? I'd say that's highly unlikely and not worth their time.
Also it's pretty damn difficult (probably impossible) to move large amounts of BTC anonymously. The NSA, CIA FBI, and Secret Service cyber departments don't need a backdoor to track down BTC transactions. There is no shortage of stories out there of them doing exactly that.
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13 minutes ago, james22 said:
Mine as well. Loved that car.
I'm an Omega fan boy, but if you can buy a Rolex at MSRP, you should. You make money walking out the door.
I wear a Nomos Ahoi ... very nice watch imo. Bought used at maybe 3/5 the price of new. Can't justify a Rolex but would consider a Tudor Black Bay 54 if I was in the market for another used watch...Definitely not a watch collector, but enjoy having one nice watch.
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House layout > house size
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~40% currently across accounts (disclaimer though as the SAVE saga is still open....). Overall really solid year for me....But I did lot more trading than anticipating simply because of how the market was. So that's good and bad imo...I try to keep an open mind with investments and not get tied to anything I hold (outside of MSFT and RTX). I think it's important to take what the market gives you and not get caught up in diversification etc. Great thanks to all of you on here for the very solid DD and idea aggregation! BY FAR the best investment forum out there!
CORE
- MSFT
- RTX (added to in Oct)
- BRK.B (re-bought in Feb)
- AIV (doubled in Oct)
- ALCO (re-established a position on the dip back in Sept)
- FRPH (new this year)
- FFH (new this year thanks Viking)
- JOE
- BRO (new this year)
- WFG (doubled in Oct)
- GENGF (new this year)
- NTDOY
- CPRT (new this year)
- PARA (new this year)
- PFMT (new this year)
- BTC
OPEN PLAYS
- SAVE (stock cost basis sub ~$11.20 and call options Jan 2025) still open....fingers crossed here
- BAC (options) bought 1/16/26 $40 calls at .94 sold half for ~3.20
- GLASF (some core some trade...overall small position)
SOLD
- GOOGL (bought last March sold in the 120's) <---- kind of regret this but had other things in my sights
- MSGE (no issues with the thesis, just had other things I liked better)
- SNCAF (solid gain on the year...decided it wasn't a company or industry I wanted to keep up with though and the position was not large enough to make holding worth it)
- INTC (took a loss on this but nothing major...should have held lol)
- VTS (Solid
- HQI (sold for ~13 sold high 16's)
- M (stock and options. Paid .11c for $20 Jan 19 2024 calls sold mid Dec for ~.55)
- CASH (buy under 45 sell over 50 rinse and repeat...)
- PCYO (I trade in and out of this at least once or twice a year....CEO gives shareholders zero reason to hold currently.)
- MANU (.....)
- TFC
- USB
- ATCO (forced out unfortunately...)
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4 hours ago, bargainman said:
How does a lightning network work?
Basically smart contracts to enable off chain transactions between verified peers. It doesn’t have to verify every transaction on chain because it sort of hold open that verification. So it can handle a million times more a transaction volume vs the main BTC chain which verifies every transaction.
layman’s description here.
https://www.coinbase.com/learn/crypto-basics/what-is-lightning
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10 hours ago, bargainman said:
What's the speed and cost of transactions on the major coins these days?
Depends how you transact. If you’re doing it right in chain with BTC it’s expensive. If you’re doing it on Lightning network it’s negligible. -
Merry Christmas to everyone! Enjoy your family time!
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1 minute ago, Whensthepaintdry? said:
I don’t think that’s how it works.
Well I didn’t feel like doing the math on tax after certain amount lol but it’s not that far off. Tax incentives are bad either way imo.
What Are You Drinking?
in General Discussion
Posted
Balcones is good stuff. Stopped by their distillery back in 2021 when I was out that way for a wedding. Texas has some unique whiskeys for sure.
There’s quite a few micro distilleries throughout Texas. Rebecca Creek is a little hidden gem in San Antonio. Pretty new and not all their products are great. But their Double Barrel about a Spanish Oak was pretty solid as well. At least a unique offering.