SHDL

The SVB and Signature Bank deposit guarantees are financed by a "special tax" on banks (if needed), so assuming they do the same with a broader deposit guarantee I don't expect that to be inflationary.

fair point

My only thought about AI is that it seems bad for office RE

There was apparently a large number of bearish option bets against these tech names going into Friday's opex and dealers were closing the short positions that they had as hedges as those options expired. Check out jam_croissant on Twitter if that sounds interesting.

Those are good points. Do you have a sense of when the cap will be lifted? I get the impression that it's been dragging on forever with no end in sight.

I'm generally on board with this. I do have some BAC. Some questions: 1. GS, MS: Why do you think they will benefit from these events? 2. WFC: How do you feel about the asset cap?

They'll probably pause the hikes soon if not at the next meeting. They have a perfectly good excuse to do so now that they've thrown a big wrench in the banking system which should tighten credit by a lot for a while. The big question is whether they have already overdone it or not.

Let me throw in a scary looking figure to get you folks excited:

Has the Fed ever actually said that?

Added a bit to BAC and JOE, low ball bids for SCHW didn't get filled.

Yes which is why I think the fear is somewhat overblown. And even if the Fed doesn't do anything, people getting scared and rushing into Treasuries alone should fix the problem to some degree.

Right, it sounds like a perfectly good idea so why the government “monopoly” is the question… It’s like saying you can only buy auto insurance from the government and you can only get up to $5000 coverage per car.

That was quite a weekend! Some thoughts: 1. The government (FDIC/Fed/Treasury) won't let depositors at other banks lose their money after this. If they do, that would be like a perfect replay of Lehman. And they have the money ... or the money printer to be more precise. 2. But yes, depositors will probably move their deposits en masse this week regardless. As @changegonnacome pointed out, this shouldn't topple any bank immediately but some may be required to raise capital soon. The lending facility will give them the time to do so in an orderly manner if nothing else. 3. A mild recession could actually strengthen the balance sheets of many banks as interest rates will probably go down in that event and make treasuries and MBS more valuable. Of course a severe recession would be no good. 4. The FDIC limit will almost certainly be increased (and the FDIC will charge a higher price for it). 5. Speaking of which, I don't quite understand why private insurance companies do not sell deposit insurance...

Not if you're forced to sell your assets at the wrong time/price... Anyhow re: SVB - we'll see how this mess gets resolved over the weekend and its ripple effects on the broader economy (if any) but based on what I've read so far about their importance in the SV startup world I'm surprised they weren't required to go though those annual Fed stress tests!

So now a major bank run has suddenly entered the picture? That’s promising… The only problem is I can already hear the sound of government intervention coming this way.