Williams406

Where are you getting the forward earnings #? Is that consensus earnings? Your estimate of future earnings?

Depending on your definition of "sale," Charter/GCI Liberty/Liberty Broadband. Cash flow hopefully proves resilient and Charter is buying back stock.

BRK and FRPH

The first rum I ever tasted was at the Zacapa distillery in Guatemala many years ago. The solera system works, even if it isn't easy to explain. Zacapa 23 is amazing stuff. Also like El Dorado 12 and 15, nice demerrara rums.

Longlake 95, I like the way you think, though my choice of gin would be Koval with FeverTree Indian Tonic. If I can get away with leaving a family member behind instead, a case of Chimay Blue Label goes with.

cap rates have come down a lot on mobile home parks over the past 3-5 years like most other assets. Ick factor does keep people away, but high-enough cash on cash returns has attracted new owners. I like the asset class. It is typically the cheapest housing available to people in a given area, which means your tenants are living on life's economic margins in many cases. Will be interesting to see what happens to economics if we get a downturn.

cherzeca, Thanks for that--we need to get that ROLG posting here! ;) I really appreciate the detailed look at the litigation profile.

".@MarkCalabria @FHFA Director at @AEI-CRN housing conference on 10/16: it will be very difficult for @FannieMae and @FreddieMac to raise capital in a downturn, "we are focused on urgency of raising capital" $FNMA $FMCC 10:47 AM - 17 Oct 2019" This is the sort of thing I want to hear. Sure, underpromise and overdeliver, and be conservative with time frames...good principles. But let us know you are operating with some urgency. Better yet, don't tell us how fast you're going to hustle down the first base line, just go ahead and do a Pete Rose belly slide in to the bag and show us. That will get you in to MY Hall of Fame.

"...Calabria said that's not his problem, but for Fannie and Freddie to figure out." Over the past month, in spite of developments that are on the right track, this attitude from Calabria has given me pause/driven me nuts. His agency did this to the GSE's, even if HE didn't. Very glad to see the apparent adjustment. As cherzeca speculates, likely due to bankers giving him the what for.

It is a special kind of agony to not know how developed R&R plans are between Treasury and FHFA. It's possible they have a lot of things lined up and the inferred timeline is truncated. But the capital markets are open now. Get this done.

Wiggins linking to the Herbalife article seems perfectly apt: multi-level marketing reps don't make the money they think they are going to make, and neither have GSE investors the past couple of days. My GSE position is full...for now.

Not a rec. to buy or sell...check out the Altius thread. It's short and should only take you half a year to wade through. Focus on non-precious metals and bulk materials royalties. Project generator model with a royalty/stream portfolio generating about $80 million a year. Iron ore, copper, potash feature prominently in the royalty/stream portfolio. So does electrical coal for now, but management would like you to know that they are transitioning away from that.

I worry about a lot of things with my GSE investment, but Calabria brandishing the long knives with Fannie and Freddie is quite a ways down the list. If you came to me in a world in which the GSE's did not exist and laid out the blueprint for them, my response would be "That's a really bad idea." That seems to be Calabria's Cato viewpoint. I would say it is far worse to try to eliminate them in the way the government has attempted to do. If you want to get rid of them, there is a way to do it and most libertarians would be sick with what has happened to the GSE's if they were aware. Those that don't subscribe to "the end justifies the means." I see little chance Calabria plays the role of GSE assassin when doing so would violate so flagrantly his "NWS is illegal" position. Like all here, I'm really ready to see the admin's plan...

New post from Tim Howard: https://howardonmortgagefinance.com/2019/02/07/a-three-year-retrospective An excerpt that concisely sums up the last decade for GSE's: “You abused your regulatory power by taking Fannie and Freddie over without statutory authority and for your own policy purposes, then conspired with a conservator you controlled to run up their non-cash losses, forcing on them senior preferred stock they didn’t need and you wouldn’t let them repay, whose purpose was to transform massive, temporary and artificial book expenses you’d created for them into massive, perpetual and real cash revenues you’re taking for yourself.”

Wasn't Moelis toward the lower end of Otting's 150b-200b GSE capital? Comment suggests that at least FHFA-anticipated capital levels aren't ridiculously high.

Thanks, Liberty. I really get a lot out of these sort of retrospectives in market history showing what real-world investors said and did during crises.

Looks like 35,000 shares were sold in 2013 to Plymouth for $92,750,000 or $2,650/share when the 20% discounted independent appraisal stood at $3,320. In 2015, 6,000 Plymouth shares were sold at a price not disclosed by CET.

Thanks, mjm. I'll read through a few more CET annuals and see if I can track down the partial Plymouth sale terms.

But in a scenario where a shareholder holds the position in a tax-deferred account, any realized capital gain distributed to shareholders from, say, the sale of the Plymouth stake would not ding the shareholder tax-wise, correct? My understanding is that as a closed-end investment corporation, Central Securities does not have that tax liability assuming the realized gain is distributed.

mjm: has Central Securities publicly-stated anything suggesting a possible sale of Plymouth stake? Or were you just saying it's a hypothetical? bookie71: Looking at 12/31/17 data for both Plymouth I see the following: per share shareholder equity = $4,210 (page 14 of 2017 Plymouth AR) per share independent appraisal = $7,990 (1.9x book) with 20% discount = $6,390 Looks like Central Securities valued their Plymouth stake on 12/31/17 @ $5,100/share ($144 million/28,424 shares), a 35-40% discount to undiscounted Plymouth independent appraisal. In other words, Central Securities values it's Plymouth stake at roughly a 1.2x premium to Plymouth reported book at 12/31/17. That doesn't seem a stretch given book-value growth at Plymouth of late. Interesting idea...glad DanielGMask resurrected it. Has anyone come across language from Central Securities breaking out the impact on long-term returns from the non-Plymouth portfolio?

"Who knows how else the space will be used." Ironically, perhaps as self-storage facilities for all the stuff people order from Amazon. I've actually seen some conversions of a KMart (I think) and a car dealership in my area to self-storage facilities.

RE Enbridge, that is $1.5 billion of new equity issued, not 1.5B new shares. The latter would be a rather dramatic change in the capital structure!

Agree on the distinction between robust/durable and antifragile. I'll throw US Lime and Minerals in to the ring here. Digging limestone out of owned quarries is a nice, durable business throwing off lots of free cash flow. USLM's capital management approach is to horde cash, pay a minimal dividend and very occasionally do something with the cash. This element might qualify it as antifragile. In 2012, a large block of stock became available so they did that. There was an acquisition way back. Today, $82 million in cash, no debt, $480m market cap, they could do an acquisition if one became available in a downturn. Not sure many quarries go on sale in downturns, though, as they tend to be very durable businesses. But some decent chance at value creation in a downturn.

As an additional risk factor: Cabinet members serve at the pleasure of the President, and can also resign if they decide it's better for themselves to do so. I don't rate this a high % probability risk, but Mnuchin is a key player in this so I think it should be on the list of risk factors. With the recent Dem letter and RNC platform change, the tide certainly seems to have shifted the investment proposition in longs' favor, but imagine how you'd view things if, say, three weeks ago Mnuchin announced his resignation as Treasury Secretary. I'm just saying it belongs on the list.

Petec, Thank you for posting that doc.