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claphands22

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Everything posted by claphands22

  1. It's just agency backed MBS, nothing exotic. He did it years ago and apparently made a big capital gain as well as the income. Thanks. How can someone purchase one of these? Something you'd have to buy through a prime broker? (not something I want to buy now, just curious)
  2. Around 19:08 Buffett said he made a lot of money on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae mortgage pass throughs. (1) What the heck is a mortgage pass through? CDO? (2) Anyone know anything about this trade? It sounds interesting.
  3. Yeah, my friend just sent me this link. I could have died when I heard Buffett said he already has purchased shares. I kind of thought he would never do it, but I guess he called the bluff and is purchasing. I'm happy Warren is buying back shares. Not only because Berkshire is stupid-cheap, but it will make it easier on the next guy if share repurchases have already been done. There will be some Buffett sacred cows, like dividends, that the next CEO will have to deal with. At least he won't have to worry about stock repurchases. The repurchases are pretty historic. First time he has actually pulled the trigger on his own stock.
  4. 200M AUM is a heck a lot of money to me... He explains his ideas well, yes they often lack originality but almost all my positions lack originality, so I have no room to talk. Also if I was going to be on tv, I would only blab about my best idea: irrelevant of it's origination. Notwithstanding, I would never be on tv because I am not pretty enough/have the needed qualification. Tilson is an attractive guy who boasts strong connections and who is a HBS Baker scholar...the kind of person you would want to guest on your financial network. Side note on the hong kong dollar. If I believed in the trade I would be yapping about it too. The more people who sell their US dollars to buy hong kong dollars put pressure on the currency peg (government would have to step in if the exchange mechanism gets out of hand...similar to the soros break the bank of England trade) Anyways I hope we have Tilson yapping for a long time. I'd rather my aunts, uncles and cousins listening to him then 95% of the memers of the financial media.
  5. If the market reacted differently, we'd be saying everything Tilson touches turns into gold. His analysis is comprehensive, he communicates well, he has enough conviction to publish short/long ideas on the web for the world to throw stones at. I think he was the only person who went short FFH and subsequently went long FFH; very respectable in terms of intellectual flexibility. Also Tilson works with Glenn Tongue. So it would be more appropriate to level criticism to Tilson and Tongue; although, I don't think the criticism is warranted to begin with.
  6. Thanks for the post. Was "totally wrong on placeholders" Could anyone expand on this? Why did he say he was wrong? Does he now consider his least liked idea his "placeholder." Is cash now his placeholder? Interesting that he said this...had a discussion about the Pabrai placeholder idea with a friend a while ago.
  7. I am looking for the December 1992 OID Interview with Berkowitz where he discusses his WFC thesis. If anyone could tell me where I could find it, or e-mail it to me at wallis.joshua@gmail.com . I would really appreciate it. Thanks!
  8. Was the WSJ always this Fox-Newsie or did they get like this after they were bought by News Corp? I believe the taxation policy on preferreds has been like this for ages. (Where the tax on preferred dividends is much less than the tax on bond dividends)
  9. Part of their claim they had enough capital was linked to them selling non-core assets. The CCB stake was the just the most obvious none core heavily penalized due to Basel III. Wish they sold the whole stake...hope they aren't keeping it to maintain a good "relationship"... side note: surprised how much it jumped on the news of the stake sale. The stake sell was all but assumed...maybe it had nothing to do with the sale but kind of odd.
  10. Buffett said BAC deal is reminiscent of his youth. GEICO & American Express trades http://www.cnbc.com/id/44207362 QUICK: JUST GOING ON REAL QUICKLY TO POINT OUT THAT THIS IS KIND OF LIKE SOME DEALS BUFFETT HAS DONE IN THE PAST SOME OF THE MAJOR DEALS HE'S IN HIS YOUTH. HE SAYS THIS IS LIKE GOING BACK TO HIS YOUTH WHERE NOT ONLY AMERICAN EXPRESS, WHERE HE GOT IN BACK IN THE 1960s, BUT THEN WITH GEICO BACK IN 1970. GEICO WAS IN TROUBLE, TOO. I BELIEVE BECAUSE OF SOME ACCOUNTING ISSUES. HE BOUGHT INTO THAT COMPANY, TOO AND BOUGHT A MAJOR STAKE AT THAT POINT, BUT IT'S THE IDEA OF BUYING INTO THE COMPANIES THAT LOOK LIKE THEY ARE IN TROUBLE, TAKING SOME MAJOR BETS AND BUYING BIG INTO THEM. THIS IS REMINISCENT OF SOME OF THE DEALS HE'S DONE IN THE PAST. If you are a Buffett nerd you know how profitable his old American Express and GEICO trades were. This isn't an analysis of BAC, but I'm sure the Buffett nerds will find this statement really interesting. Of course, this is a second hand report and I'm not sure if he is being misquoted here, but this was said by Becky Quick, one of the few talking heads I like (and have a crush on.) (note: saying BAC could be another AXP or GEICO home run is really too hyperbolic and scary to say. I think people should level his BAC investment with the fact he was also dead wrong on the Irish banks. For historical reasons, I think it's interesting he would say he finds the current investment reminiscent, but I sure as heck wouldn't include it in my thesis)
  11. I'm about to say something stupid, so I'd skip this post. I don't really like James Tisch. To me, he comes off as a guy who won the sperm lottery (I'd so ovarian, but it wasn't his mom who made the company.) He is smart guy and seems honest, but I was scratching my head in 2009 when he didn't pull the trigger. I remember watching interviews of him (either on Bloomberg or Consuelo Mack) of him complaining about how the government is making things too foggy for him to make an investment. He was afraid to invest in uncertain times....well....there are not going to be that many great investments you will make if everyone is certain. I also found him off putting when he would give these interviews saying he wasn't investing because he found the current government (the Obama administration) too fond of regulations and the regulatory environment made things too uncertain. To me, James Tisch politicized his investment decisions or had allowed his political fears/biases to infect his investment choices. This all being said, I wouldn't mind owning Loews at current prices. (James Tisch has been stewing in my brain for a while, I hope someone can tell me what a complete idiot I am)
  12. Thanks for the replies. Yet, I'm still pretty thick and even though I read that document from the Bank of England, I didn't get much out of it. Anyone have any other documents/books/sites to read to understand these basel requirements a bit better? I understand getting exact number for the risk associated with certain assets is impossible since the assessed risk can get based on too fine of detail...but I'd be happy with just a rough understanding how certain assets are assessed. What I am trying to figure out is, if Bank of America sells their entire stake in China Construction Bank, how would that affect their tier 1 capital....I'm guessing that equity stake has a much higher risk weighting than most assets and if they sold off their stake it could lower fears of a possible equity raising. (BAC stake in CCB is coming off the lock-up period at the end of August from what I understand) Yet any good reads on how basel II tier one capital is calculated (sans Wikipedia) would be highly appreciated. Thanks =)
  13. because it's Wednesday... Maybe I'm reading it wrong, but I think it aired last night. Was hoping the full length version was online somewhere.
  14. Bloomberg did a show on Michael Blurry that was aired last night. http://www.bloomberg.com/video/72533992/ Anyone know where to find the full length show? Thanks!
  15. Anyone know where to find a complete list of all the assets a bank could have and their corresponding basel risk weights? For example, I know AAA sovereign debt has a 0% risk weighting, but AAA corporate debt has a 20% risk weighting. Yet, I don't know what would be the risk weighting for foreign equities, heloc loans, 2nd mortages, preferred stock...and so forth. I am trying to figure out what kind of tier 1 capital BAC would have if they sold off some of their "riskier" assets in order to increase their tier 1 capital...but without a complete list of their associated risk weights, I can't really figure it out. Thanks =)
  16. Carson Block is definitely a different type of analysts but maybe it took a Carson Block to bring this whole thing to attention. His hodgepodge of skills, experience and personality were exactly what you needed to burst the bubble of the Chinese stocks trading in America. (1) Financial expertise, from his father and schooling (2) understanding of chinese culture, from working in Shanghai and living in Asia (3) understanding of business practices in China, from setting up his business in Shanghai (4) ability to communicate his ideals effectively with investors, from his dad who runs an equity research firm (5) an irreverent attitude toward authority, not necessary for short sellers but seems to be a running streak. I am not saying I want to take long walks on the beach with him, but maybe he was the right guy and the right time for all these Chinese frauds..no? disclosure: I am short some Chinese stocks, but none of the companies Carson Block has mentioned.
  17. I'm actually not very keen on AU banks. AU has a real estate bubble that rivals the US and their banks have been quite aggressive about lending. Also they are very dependent on wholesale funding. Here is a 2009 analysis done by Ben Claremon from The Inoculated Investor about Australian banks. http://www.scribd.com/doc/17035987/Analysis-of-Australian-Bank-Fundamentals The Australian banks do pay a nice dividend, but that's partly because the interest rates are quite high in Australia and the stocks have to compete for yield. You can get a 5-6% yield on insured savings accounts in Australia. In Taiwan, it's very common to see buses with advertisements for people to open up Australian denominated savings accounts since the interest yield is so high (in Taiwan is less than 1%.) I wonder how much of the current rise in AUD is due to people pushing their currency into higher yield AUD savings accounts...
  18. Looking to find a company's old press releases. Like press releases dating back ten years. Anyone know website where I could find this info? Thanks!
  19. The CEO reaffirmed his proposal...oy vey...I don't have a bone in the hrbn bit (in other Chinese RTOs, yes) but he responded exactly how citron expected them to. No definitive agreement, just a reaffirmation of a proposal, jeesh. I've already married off two other daughters while this putz is still making promises about a promise.
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