DRValue

I read boves common share analysis on junior preferred conversion. I feel like people think the treasury or fhfa will turn round and tell the GSEs to convert preferred at silly common prices. I don't see this at all. It'll be left to the companies to raise capital as they see fit, which was indicated by calabria. Treasury and fhfa controlling private company recap leads to more lawsuits imo. Unless that would be within fhfa remit and not ultra vires (see, I do listen to the court hearings).

I think there may be a spike in the share prices today or tomorrow, but nothing spectacular. Reason being the only real positive is the certainty of recap and release. I don't see a recap plan being announced, we don't have final capital requirements and NWS doesn't end till q4. I don't expect terms for nws till then. So no dividend timetable or conversion news. In fact there will be uncertainty regarding completion still, however unlikely. The real news will be the terms of the nws in q4 that could surprise to the upside on any terms.

Do we have a time frame on the release of the final capital rule?

Any answers on NWS continuing vs ending, and the timing of such action, if any? Bedtime in DC. #NWS to end as part of new negotiated Amendment in 4th quarter Question on GSE's... are you hearing the plan being released Labor Day week is positive, negative, or neutral for preferred shareholders? #Presidentisl #Mortgage Memo has two parts. #FHA and #GSEa. They wll have answers to publicly disclosed questions based on what can Admin do alone and do they need Congress for. All positive. ACG video from earlier this year if you haven't seen it already: https://www.realvision.com/tv/shows/trade-ideas/videos/a-new-fannie-mae-play Is it just me or are these guys tweeting old news?

Came out today: https://www.fhfa.gov/mobile/Pages/public-affairs-detail.aspx?PageName=FHFA-Announces-Results-of-Fannie-and-Freddie-Dodd-Frank-Act-Stress-Tests-8-2019.aspx Possibly lower capital requirements than previously thought. Very interesting. Thanks for this. Just read through the results and I find it hard to make a good case for 180 billion of capital based on the results.

"The best and most legitimate quotes are those that offer no source or reference." "Lol" said people familiar with the matter.

As this is looking more and more moelis like, that may explain calabria pushing out the timeline for exiting conservatorship. My thinking is that a secondary offering at the right share price is out of management's control, they don't control the stock price. So milestones may look like; You need this much capital, You can turn dividends on at this capital level, You can raise capital however you like.

Watched a calabria talk at ginnie Mae, given on 23 July. He said he hoped to see the treasury plan released by the end of the month. So with the budget passed, plan could be any day now. Unfortunately, it was just the video that was posted on July 23. The conference itself was June 13-14, and they were kind enough to print that on the podium. The Treasury plan has been significantly delayed and we can only guess as to why. I don't think it was just the debt ceiling because that didn't really become an issue/crisis until recently. Its right there isn't it? June 13 - 14. Should've watched and not only listened, my bad. I still think the budget vote was a factor, but we'll see.

Watched a calabria talk at ginnie Mae, given on 23 July. He said he hoped to see the treasury plan released by the end of the month. So with the budget passed, plan could be any day now.

"Sensible" is the stand out word to me. Hopefully roe becomes more relevant.

Or maybe it was the Fed cut.

So I've woken up to the commons recovering losses. Looking at orthopas post, we must surely conclude that; 1. Plan leaked a little and isn't very dilutive to common 2. No Delay in discovery and silver lining of settlements is now known. 3. Freddie sweeping profits encouraged those hoping for a surprise I've also missed my buying opportunity. I suppose price could have recovered due to the market anticipating Fannie earnings providing more and better news. This market is CRAZY!

Maybe they anticipated the NWS ending announcement to be in earnings this morning? I think that's foolish because that announcement will come from Treasury, FHFA, White House, etc. and not from the two GSE companies themselves. My guess is that it's the 4-month delay in Lamberth's court. But the trial date is set for October 19, 2020, while the original order I saw had the date one month later. So while there is a delay in discovery, there doesn't appear to be one for the trial. https://twitter.com/DoNotLose/status/1156474247889510400 http://www.glenbradford.com/2019/05/fnma-fanniegate-856/ I think you're right, i'm happy with that. Time to get the cheque book out...

Commons down 12%, have I missed some big news??

Kyle Bass is working with Steve Bannon on China, who is close to trump. May be nothing but there you go.

Awesome. I didn't think they'd get it done. I was going to post about it yesterday but didn't cos of that. Imo it definitely needed sorting before moving on the gse's. If it passes the house this week, after the senate next week we should be good to go on reform plan release. I expect Calabrias movement on plan release date could have been due to uncertainty of when the budget would pass.

Really like mo. If I ever get to cash out Fannie and Freddie that's where some of it's going.

When my stock picks go up, it's skill. When my stock picks go down, it's rotten bad luck.

treasury and fhfa will want to recap both GSEs, obviously, but from a new money investor point of view, I would rather put my money into Fannie than Freddie. whether this translates into a disparate pricing effect I know not Why do you think new money would want Fannie more? Fannie is the bigger company. edit: as for getting back some of the beyond 10% moment excess cash, yes that would balance in Freddie's favor I own mainly Fannie due to size. A bigger book of business means a stable advantage to write more business as the old book runs off, along with a lower marginal cost due to scale.

I don't see any sign of bottom yet. However I don't have much skills picking bottoms. Looking at the chart since Jan 19, $2.50 looks like support to me. There aren't any catalysts until the plan late August unless something leaks, and the timeline has potentially been pushed out. Trading should probably follow the trend until more news. No idea where we end up if we breach $2.50. I haven't the tools to see what a moving average would suggest. Any thoughts?

I'm going to add more commons and prefs aren't I? @MM what's the bottom target in the next 4 weeks?

Thinking of the timeline, I'd be surprised if treasury could get anyone to commit billions of dollars before the outcome of the next election. Reason being trump is turning the world on its head to supply side economics, moving the global supply chain and apparently being able to influence the Fed and the yield curve. If the model changes from that then the outlook for housing may change, which I would expect if anyone but trump gets in.

If they were issuing new prefs in the capital raise they'd probably need to pay divs on them.

Ah so it's a clickbait tweet. Recap and release is still on, but it'll still be govt subsidised and not a fully private system. Cheers.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-12/trump-team-grows-wary-of-fannie-freddie-fix-before-2020-election