DRValue

https://mobile.twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1100049968830865409 Exasperino is worse than some on that message board. I really am starting to think he's paid to spread FUD so that as few people get rich as possible.

The whole thing is irrelevant. who is "winning" gaspo or Rosner? Rosner... Now. https://twitter.com/CGasparino/status/1099689925186912256 Exasperino literally admitting his coverage is fake news.

Fox business news "journalist" / "personality" who has relentlessly ridiculed fanniegate Twitter but has now started covering the gse's on tv for the past week or so. Basically, as he's covering it, it means something's coming soon.

Exasperate + Gasperino. Its a bit of a leap, but I know what i meant lol.

Really glad you liked that, hopefully it'll stick and become a meme... :) I don't see what the critics can say about recapping the companies that will stick. Their scrutiny can be easily rebuffed now.

I have found Gasparino's article informative. Not that it says much, or is credible. But the fact that he mentions the WH moving into the lead. There is a chance this information is correct. Yet, a bit misunderstood. That the WH is -or might be- getting involved is a first. Mulvaney, as WH chief of staff, and Calabria, a former WH person himself, both with strong positions on GSEs matters (one wrote a proposed bill, the other one HERA) make Gasparino's unofficial rumors believable. What could be a misjudgment, in my view, is the idea that there is a conflict between Tsy and the WH regarding the direction this may go. Could Tsy instead voluntarily take a step back? Given all we know I find it hard to believe that there is any friction between them and while Gasparino presented the article as somewhat negative, my bias aside, I see it in a positive light. I believe what Otting said in "private". Exasperino has an agenda and will not change his view. His behaviour about this over the years has been reprehensible and done a disservice to the public. What's going on here is that the trump admin is the law and order party and they can't t be seen to break the law. To do that calabria has to be independent, which we all know would never be the case in practice, whoever is fhfa chief. All this talk of calabria changing the system in any big way outside of HERA is noise. I don't see a mandate in there to setup multiple guarantors etc. That's congress and won't happen, or if it does, HERA and legislation aren't mutually exclusive.

Resolving this requires actions/events totally outside our control and outside the cold but certain logic of a bankruptcy court. Having been here a while through the ups and downs, with - in reality - almost zero leverage, I imagine 2/3+ would take a 50% payout on jpf's. I would. In which case pricing of around 30% of par is not out of whack. But of course we hope and talk our book and think we should get par. Just keeping it real lest we all run out and get even deeper into this. Even our most prolific GSE cheerleader Glen Bradford is running out steam and looking at stuff like shldq and ctl. After Glen sells, that's probably when there will be a deal. If common are worth a cent, juniors are worth par. Nothing but par for me.

That what I read, it was someone else's reasoning based on the content of the hearing. Apparently in the hearing the committee wanted questions and responses done by 22nd Feb. I expect its right at the end, let me have a listen.... Yes, the committee wanted questions by the 19th Feb., and responses no later than 22nd Feb. So any time after that. 25th is a Monday. Not saying it'll happen then, but that would be the earliest. I don't see anything that would hold this up.

That what I read, it was someone else's reasoning based on the content of the hearing. Apparently in the hearing the committee wanted questions and responses done by 22nd Feb. I expect its right at the end, let me have a listen....

From what I've read, after questions and responses, vote is about 25th Feb. I think you're correct about no news. Buy the dips.

Anyone familiar with the timetable for when the confirmation vote will be? From the small amount I can find we're probably talking at least a month.

https://www.ft.com/content/617d11e0-2fb0-11e9-8744-e7016697f225 "One person who has been consulted on the administration’s thinking said: “They want bipartisan support, but they know that is going to be difficult, especially with so many Democrats running for president. But there are plenty of things they can do without Congress giving its support.”"

Also the rest of his testimony is very thin. A page of thank you's. I doubt we will get specifics tomorrow except maybe some talk of the need for more capital. I hope the committee press for information on the signed off plan.

As the members of the Committee are perhaps aware, I have an extensive record of writings in the area of mortgage finance. I have on a few occasions expressed strong opinions on the history and future of our mortgage finance system. I have most definitely expressed, and express here today, a frustration with the current state of our mortgage system and the need for reform. Despite that frustration, I want to very clearly state to this Committee, that if confirmed, my role as Director of FHFA is to carry out the clear intent of Congress, not to impose my own vision. In other words, I'm not going to put them in receivership like you may have heard.

I'm expecting the language stays the same until after the plan had been announced. Co's can always release an 8k on the day. Really surprised nothing has leaked though. Also, no matter how hard I try I cant imagine the announcement happening. My brain refuses to believe its going to happen, even though we know it is.

I'm expecting the language stays the same until after the plan had been announced. Co's can always release an 8k on the day.

https://mobile.twitter.com/amacker/status/1093587069253943296 Senate confirmation next Thursday. I'd imagine he's confirmed first then plan released after, to avoid tough questions.

I read this a couple of times and thought, receivership would force legislative action... Where is Gadot? :)

Also imagine the cognitive dissonance in the receivership. 1) we had to place them in receivership as they were not safe and sound because of no capital. 2) they were sound enough to pay us $280b in dividends though. Damn statutes!

NAR proposal: https://www.nar.realtor/sites/default/files/documents/2019-Working-Paper-A-Vision-For-Enduring-Housing-Finance-Reform-02-07-2019.pdf Mentions putting the gses in llre's and shareholder litigation resolved before then. This raises capital and could tie in with comments I've heard about liking some elements of the moelis plan. Assuming this would mean the end of the nws and the repayment of spsa, via a ruling or agreement. A couple of things I don't understand. Is there a specific, absolute need to go via receivership to change these entities into SIMMUs or can the charter be amended? Assuming the spsa is redeemed and the only issue is capital, what would be gained by wiping out common shareholders? And I'm not talking about new stock holders getting more shares... A receivership makes this issue even more complicated imo.

Hurry up otting ffs.

Buffett gave up on technical analysis when he realised he could turn the chart upside down and get the same result.

Wow, that would be much faster than many, or even any, of us expected. Still, Otting will have to do or say something very soon due to FnF's earnings coming out. If there is no change and the "we expect to pay Treasury a dividend" language remains, it will take a lot of wind out of our sails. Otting's comments could also mean that he didn't expect Calabria to be confirmed this quickly either, so he might not have time to do everything he thought he needed to do before May, or whenever it was he expected Calabria to be confirmed. Thinking about this, I would imagine the Treasury has been working on this plan for the past 2 years and its purely political / optical reasons that it hasn't been announced. This plays into the timeline of Otting not releasing the plan for a few uncertain weeks. Perhaps Otting needs to look like he is following the nominees lead. The number of weeks ties in with Clabria possibly having a hearing next week. Quicker than we thought but I would imagine that is what Otting is actually waiting for.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/DyqO-b1WoAAZdww.jpg:large Calabria confirmation hearing next week? That would be much quicker than i thought and would contradict Otting's statements about getting a lot done before Mark starts. Unless he means not the quantity, but the materiality of what he does.

My base case is now that common have no value and I'm considering the put options. I like the debt but another hurdle for small retail investors is the terms of conversion sometimes only include recovery for big players. That leads to the need for more of a discount for me. The flip side is that pg&e aren't found liable for camp fire but I'm not factoring that in yet.