Nell-e

Morningstar, did you read this write-up? https://www.hvst.com/attachments/13770/Credit-Acceptance-Corporation_Thesis_11-Feb-18.pdf Author calls out that Loans Receivable (an asset) are written off after 10 years. I went to CACC 10-K and found the following passage: We record the amount advanced to the Dealer as a Dealer Loan, which is classified within Loans receivable in our consolidated balance sheets. Am I missing something?

Thanks for tip, Paul. I tried it for an old Apple transcript. I can get to page 2 of the transcript but not beyond. See example below. Am I doing something wrong? http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:https://seekingalpha.com/article/3968300-apple-aapl-timothy-donald-cook-q2-2016-results-earnings-call-transcript?page=3

Thanks for the link, Longhaul. I'm following Antonio on Twitter now. Morningstar, I basically don't trust my own interpretation of accounting. That's the biggest reason I didn't buy puts. Irrespective, what's the bull thesis at this point? Who's bidding this stock up?

I remember looking at buying puts for CACC a while ago. I came across the company when reading a write-up by John Huber. If you look at insider trades, the owners (Foss family) started massively dumping shares starting from September 2016 at $198/share all the way to December 2017 at $326/share. Also, something from their 10-K seemed really weird: "An allowance for credit losses is maintained at an amount that reduces the net asset value (Dealer Loan balance less the allowance) to the value of forecasted future cash flows discounted at the yield established at the time of assignment. This allowance calculation is completed for each individual Dealer. Future cash flows are comprised of estimated future collections on the Consumer Loans, less any estimated Dealer Holdback payments. We write off Dealer Loans once there are no forecasted future cash flows on any of the associated Consumer Loans, which generally occurs 120 months after the last Consumer Loan assignment." They write off Dealer Loans after 120 months or 10 years? That sounds ridiculous. If you recall, the Great Recession started in 2008 and I believe CACC benefited greatly from the "cash for clunkers" program. Does that mean that Dealer Loans originated in 2008 are going to be written off starting this year? I've been watching this stock from when the Foss' first started selling and it's gone up by over 50% so I have no idea where the price is heading.

They're price discriminating. I noticed SA's bullshit paywall several months ago. At first, they were giving notifications that it was $75 per month. I ignored it. Now they're offering me the same package for $20 per month.

Here's a slide deck from Ensco, an offshore contract drilling services provider to the oil and gas industry. Slide 4 shows the long term history of the company's offshore rig count. Does anyone have an opinion on where we are in the cycle with this industry? Rebound or double dip? https://seekingalpha.com/article/4146715-ensco-esv-presents-23rd-annual-credit-suisse-energy-summit-slideshow

Active asset managers have been hurt by the popularity of passive ETF investing. Do people think customers will go back to active managers anytime soon? How about agricultural commodities? Not familiar with that space.

guns and ammo / NFL football Also sooner or later, it looks like medical supply industry is going to get hit: https://www.wsj.com/articles/amazons-latest-ambition-to-be-a-major-hospital-supplier-1518517802

Here's the thread for industries that are OVER-earning: http://www.cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/general-discussion/which-industries-are-currently-over-earning/msg324336/?topicseen#msg324336 Invert always invert- which industries are under-earning due to temporary capital spending, macro headwinds, secular shifts, or changes in the regulatory environment? I'll put forth my guesses 1) plain vanilla US Regional Banks? - low net interest margin, deregulation expectations, better tax rates, more fiscal stimulus to broader economy from the tax cut 2) catastrophic insurers who took it on the chin from the hurricanes last year 3) industries catering to babies, young parents in China due to the end of the 1 child policy What do other members think?

Another thing with the airlines is that there's a pilot shortage without a quick fix.

I think Chegg falls into this category since Rosensweig took over.

I'm starting this thread so people can chime in and highlight industry risk. I'll start off with a couple of industries. 1) The obvious one is brick and mortar retailers who serve the middle class. Still too many malls. Not sure about high-end retailers. 2) I think the US auto industry is over-earning because it's had massive tailwinds. Peak sales volume over the last couple of years (pent-up demand from GFC). Last year, the hurricanes helped. Average sales prices likely to fall. Low interest rates have helped customers to pay for price increases. Automakers offering more incentives. Recovery of housing prices. Low gas prices. My understanding is a lot of cars are coming off lease so the inventory of used cars will rise. As a result, used car prices are expected to fall. Interested to hear what other industries COBF members think are currently over-earning because of cyclical tailwinds or one-time occurences (i.e. the freight car industry during the fracking boom).

Wondering why this thread is dead while the "buy" thread is active. That being said I haven't sold anything lately either.

I had never heard of Seaboard. You're quite right about the run they've had. Thanks for chiming in.

Thanks for the feedback, globalfinancepartners. I think I ran across TPL in 2010. I didn't know how to value it. I'm very bullish on Texas. I play it through Prosperity Bancshares (PB) which is another company that is long-term focused. The reason I started this thread was to generate ideas for compounders.

I actually learned a lot from "The Wire", one of my all time favorite shows. The producer, David Simon, was a former journalist for the Baltimore Sun so the show had a truly authentic feel to it. As someone living in Silicon Valley, I don't think a whole lot about inner cities or port workers. After watching the show, I started researching ports, transportation companies, and community banks. Snoop was the best. The scene where she buys a nail gun is some funny shit.

"Welcome from me too, Nell-e. I'd be interested to hear you expand on your psychological/incentive insights, which I can't say I've quite understood." Thanks for the welcome, Guys. Let me say (1) I don't have magical psychological insights (2) there are many things I believe which I can't prove. One example is that I think insider trading is rampant but obviously that's something I can't prove. Anyway, my guess that BRK.B will go up this year is based on the concepts of herding, institutional imperative, and the belief that money manager's primary goal is job security. If a money manager severely underperforms and they don't own well known stocks, it's quite likely that some of their clients will question their competence and bail. It's the reason that in every cycle there are certain glamour stocks that everyone piles into. In past cycles, IBM, GM, MSFT, were "can't miss" stocks. Last year, it was the FANG stocks. I also don't think it was a coincidence that Apple's stock took off after Warren Buffett endorsed it. Every money manager piles in because they can say Apple is a great company even a value investor like Buffett is buying. The stock market is already more volatile this year. A money manager's worst fear is that their clients pull money out as the stock market goes down thereby forcing them to sell assets. The thinking goes that money managers will be motivated to pile into well known "safer" names this year. I think Berkshire fits the bill. Easy story to tell- Berkshire is a world class company run by world's greatest investor that will benefit immensely from tax reform and then they can pull up Berkshire's historical chart. The reason for posting my thinking is because I'm hoping there are retired or active money managers on this board who can dispute or confirm my hypothesis.

I also bought some BRK.B recently although my logic might make some cringe. I'm a big believer in the "cover your ass" incentive. Barclays and UBS put price targets on the B shares for ~$240. I'm betting that money managers will herd into Berkshire by year end in a volatile market because it's easy to justify to unsophisticated retail customers. Any thoughts on my reasoning?

I'm a big fan of Scarface 8) Unmatched in timeless wisdom - "In this country, first you get the money, then you get the power, then you get the women..."

Would like to hear opinions about which companies/CEO's are truly long term focused and don't manage to quarterly results? These are some of the companies I've come across - Berkshire, AMZN, Tesla, Oaktree Capital, Tencent, BABA, JD.com, community banks that have been around for longer than 100 years and have been steadily profitable (i.e. BKUTK, AUBN)

-Was wondering if there is anybody with 1st hand experience or acquaintances w 1st hand experience with using India Digital Payment platforms i.e. Paytm, MobiKwik, Itzcash (now Ebixcash), Money on Mobile, etc. ??? -I'm also interested in getting people's opinions on who the most likely winners/losers will be. -Would like to understand the nuances between the different platforms i.e. different apps target different demographics and also have different use cases. Thanks