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JanSvenda

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Everything posted by JanSvenda

  1. Hello fellow CoBFers, I hope you are all doing well in these turbulent times! For those of you who are still scouring the OTC market looking for the oddball deep value play, I and couple of other OTC guys have prepared something you will want to check out. We have created a digital version of Walker’s Manual. We build an online database of over 400 meaningful OTC stocks. Therefore, it includes most of the companies OTC investors should be aware of. Our database includes our own comments about each of the stocks, links to any relevant sources, and fundamental data points through which you can filter the database. It also features a comment section where users can share their view on individual stocks. We have a formidable number of dark stocks for which we provide financials. Say goodbye to the clunky and inefficient screener on OTCmarkets.com or time-consuming A to Z search. Check out an intro video to our database - You can get your instant access here - https://svendamanual.com/product/one-year-subscription-to-database/ If you buy our annual subscription to the database, you will be getting a database which will be updated and to which we will be adding new stocks, features alongside new fundamental data points. We also frequently write research and with the annual subscription you will get 50% off of any new research we put up. I wish you successful hunting in the OTC world, Jan
  2. Dear fellow CoBFers who invest in OTC, As you might remember from 2017 to 2019 I used to run a newsletter focused on the OTC market. During that time, I scoured the notoriously inefficient market for companies that are meaningful and exhibit an investment opportunity. No frauds, no pump and dumps. Only companies that are of interest to the serious enterprising investor. I like to think that I looked at every company in the OTC market at least twice. I went the A to Z route a couple of times, I maintained many simple screeners, I tracked Form 25s, 15s and much more. Given the sheer size of the market, one can’t be completely sure of his/her coverage of the market, but I believe my reach is formidable. In late 2018 I decided to compile all of the past research tied to the newsletter and offer it to investors. Just in case you missed it, I am now offering an updated and discounted version of my Svenda’s Manual. What I have added are the reports from 2019 which have coverage of over 100 stocks over 80 pages. Adding further reference points for your own OTC research. I have also added a folder filled with financials tied to 36 dark stocks. Thus, you will be able to also expand your financials database. You can find samples of the manual here - https://jansvenda.com/sample/ As I like to say, simply knowing about an OTC company will make sure you are halfway in discovering an investment opportunity. These documents will allow you to achieve that and greatly reduce the risk of you missing out on the next OTC opportunity. I believe it will be especially useful when the next crisis comes around. You can buy the document through this PayPal link - https://www.paypal.com/cgi-bin/webscr?cmd=_s-xclick&hosted_button_id=C3QJ2UHTJBT9E Once you purchase, you will receive the full PDF documents straightaway. Join the ranks for already content owners of the manual such as Andrew Kuhn of Focused Compounding - https://twitter.com/FocusedCompound/status/1230584850794655745, David Flood of Elementary Value - https://www.elementaryvalue.com/blog/svendas-manual-of-otc-stocks-updated-and-now-on-sale-for-149 and others. I will greatly appreciate any feedback. Thanks, Jan Financial Disclosure: I may own shares in the companies listed in the manual. Trading in OTC shares carries specific risks that one needs to understand before initiating a position. Due diligence is essential.
  3. From my amateur knowledge, I believe child mortality is the major change here. Thus people living to their 90s are certainly many more, but the difference might not be that staggering. My post is predominantly about people living longer than 100 years etc. Just a random tidbit of info from wiki; Having survived until the age of 21, a male member of the English aristocracy in this period could expect to live:[27] 1200–1300: to age 64 1300–1400: to age 45 (because of the bubonic plague) 1400–1500: to age 69 1500–1550: to age 71 Interestingly enough men from Glasgow, for example, have a similar life expectancy to that of the English aristocracy in the 16th century - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Glasgow_effect
  4. Hoping for a cure to aging (or a substantially longer life span) is a double-edged sword in my mind. Sure, people that are self-aware and are able to reflect upon their actions and that of others will be a benefit to the society. On the other hand, people that are complete opposites will live to spread their misconceptions long after society would be without this burden. I am ambiguous about living longer. Death is so far the only other sure natural catalyst for change apart from technology.
  5. Hey, As some of you may know in the past 15 months I ran a newsletter exclusively focused on the OTC space. Recently, I decided to compile all of the past research tied to the newsletter and offer it to investors. I am offering two versions of my ‘Svenda’s Manual of OTC Stocks’. Abridged Version This will give you access to 56 long ideas spanning 348 pages. On top of the 56 ideas, you will also get access to a report where I build a portfolio of 20 interesting community banks. This version is priced at $199. You can find a sample of the document attached to this message. Full Version This will get you everything in the abridged version and you will also acquire a serious coverage of 351 meaningful stocks in the OTC land over 402 pages. Out of those 351 stocks, 25 are dark where I share information that can be hard to get. This version is priced at $399. You can find a sample of the document attached to this message. The best way to purchase the manual is now through David J. Flood's blog Elementary Value. He also shares his experience with the full version of the manual - https://www.elementaryvalue.com/investing-blog/svendas-manual-of-otc-stocks-my-readers-can-get-it-at-a-discount Now, you might be wondering; ‘Are there any investment opportunities?’ Most certainly. 32 stocks out of the 56 long ideas still have not moved by more than 20% (up or down). The community bank portfolio is up only 4.85% so far. The latest report is from early October. Thus, the research is relevant and up to date. The performance and volume analysis of the long ideas - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4219541-otc-performance, also shows that the ideas are actionable for various portfolio sizes. The second question that might pop in your head could be; ‘Okay, what is the use of the other research?’ It is a powerful reference point that you can use when doing your own research. Many OTC stocks have sparse public ‘coverage’. There might be some analysis from someone that is five years old. There might not be anything out there as is often the case. Given the sheer amount of meaningful OTC stocks I researched, you are going to acquire a unique source of relevant information. As I like to say, simply knowing about an OTC company will make sure you are halfway in discovering an investment opportunity. These documents will allow you to achieve that and greatly reduce the risk of you missing out on the next OTC opportunity. I will greatly appreciate any feedback. Thanks, Jan Svendas_Manual_Of_OTC_Stocks_-_Abridged_Sample_.pdf Svendas_Manual_of_OTC_Stocks_-_Sample.pdf
  6. I would recommend Ed Thorp's 'Beat The Market'. It really drills down the need for an 'edge' which I feel sometimes value investors easily forget (as they go on to search for that 'compounder'). He even ends up talking about demutualized community banks (a fundamental value play) after his arb career.
  7. Penntrade for the grey- http://www.nonamestocks.com/2017/05/ive-moved-to-penntrade.html
  8. https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2012/05/how-the-professor-who-fooled-wikipedia-got-caught-by-reddit/257134/ Here is a similar story.
  9. This comes to mind - If you owe the bank $100 that's your problem. If you owe the bank $100 million, that's the bank's problem The same applies to WeWork's landlords - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-12-06/wework-bets-london-s-costly-offices-won-t-be-bitten-by-brexit
  10. Hey, why do they still have the Govt. claim on their book (as at September of 2017), when Midway is no longer wholly owned by CIHL? The dividend happened in June right?
  11. Andrew Walker now works with Chris DeMuth Jr. (Rangeley Capital).
  12. For those short on time and want to get the gist of it - (good presentation at Standford) Largely unrelated but fun Russian stock to watch that might actually be investable - SGTPY - https://seekingalpha.com/article/4124657-surgutneftegaz-behavioral-bias-born-usa
  13. We are kind of on the same page here. I just don't think a 30% drop would be an issue so long as the economy is solid. The only time I was scared in my investing career was 08/09 and it was fear of the economic situation not the huge losses in my portfolio. I do not know if the economy is doing well or not, but some factors such as central banks do not seem to be handling the situation well, especially when one looks at debt. Perhaps a nice overview of this is the following video - Mind you Mr. Williams is probably a gold bug (at least from his Real Vision project) and has his own biases about the economy, but he makes solid points. Especially regarding ECB, because Draghi and his purchase program of corporate debt is indeed ludicrous.
  14. Inside Job - A well-made documentary about the crisis. While it has an obvious anti-bank bias which should be noted by viewers, it maps out the situation efficiently in my view.
  15. I would recommend reading 'Financial Shenanigans', pares well with the aforementioned 'Creative Cash Flow Reporting'. I would also be focused on frauds or perhaps follow investors that are predominantly short. They have to have an astute knowledge of accounting which in my mind is the most important factor. Their thesis is also much less influenced by random events and needs to be much more precise than on the long side. They also frequently point to errors in other valuations which is always the best way to learn. It is also fun. Through doing this I learned about accretable yield, one of the more insane ways to perform accounting for loans - http://soberlook.com/2009/05/accretable-yield-accounting-magic.html Theoretical valuation is a tricky thing. I despise DCF models that have terminal value assumption. This is akin to forecasting the end of the world and it is clearly insane. I would also note that while we have all the McKinsey books etc., individual players in the financial markets sometimes completely disregard this 'teaching'. Just look at the sell-side research. This then prompts questions about the value of such theory. The situation is similar to Economics. In finance, there is no law of gravity, no holy truth that works because finance is about people that often make irrational decisions that are hardly predictable. Thus any attempt to present a holy truth (DCF model) is bound to fail. I understand that 'rigorous' valuation (for example of Mr. Damodaran) can help sometimes to at least try to get a sense of the situation, but the obsession with models is something that one should be aware of. Read Taleb for fun arguments about this. But don't mind me. I am focused on nano-caps and OTC where I am looking to buy 'a house for the price of the bricks' and do not care where the S&P 500 will be or whether AMZN is going to devour retail, so I have my own set of strong biases about the financial education. P.S. I would recommend having a peek on the 6th version of Security Analysis.
  16. OTC Stocks - While this is a general area, I believe that I am able to add value here. Mainly because I do not mind spending a significant amount of time figuring out obscure situations. For me, the more obscure, the better. Furthermore, the reliance on macro factors in this space can be efficiently minimized. This then at least partially takes away the need for extensive forecasting.
  17. Hey John, thanks for the reply and for the follow on TWTR! I have been lurking on CoBF for a while but will start contributing more often now. Jan
  18. I started in 2011 @ 18. Back then my information channel consisted of MarketWatch, CNBC & Cramer (I followed him to CLR, a Bakken oil play). Focused on 'value' from the beginning, but that also meant that I saw opportunity in various commodity/macro stocks which gave me a good lesson about my 'competency'. Funny times. After 2014 I started to focus on ever smaller companies and started to prefer balance sheet and asset plays (net-nets etc.) with the generalizing mentality that any investment thesis relating to a stock that trades at a premium to tangible book must include future forecasts regarding FCF which I am not good at. In 2016 I read about Ethanex - http://www.becapitalmanagement.com/uploads/2/6/7/4/26748813/interview_by_chris_demuth_jr..pdf and started to look at the OTC market almost exclusively.
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