Myth465

That was mean, I almost quit my job.

Thats lovely 4 million shares in one swoop. Lancashire simply mints money. Thanks for the tip.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ATSG-Reports-FourthQuarter-bw-2606466799.html?x=0&.v=1 Earnings look good and debt has come down considerably. The call should be very interesting and Q2 earnings should give us a good idea of what things will look like going forward for ATSG.

Here are the videos. The middle one about the job numbers is next to useless. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=88876

Great read / introduction to the company. They have a bit of exposure to the Chile Earthquake so the Q1 commentary will be interesting. http://www.investis.com/l/lancashire_insurance/2009/ar09.pdf

I agree, for me this is a long term value holding. I like the fact that Management owns 25% and is putting their money where their mouth is in terms of the stock buybacks. I view this as a stable but lumpy 15% investment and more during market dislocations. This along with FUR, and FFH will be long term 10% holdings.

I agree, Management does seem a bit annoyed. On the calls you can hear it in their voices and can see the new reporting that they are doing to try to fix it. I agree with them. Its hard to figure out what Loews is worth, but Loews should trade at a premium to its public holdings. They seem to be happy buying back shares for the time being though.

Im just glad Im learning about this now. I think its safe to say this is the next big bubble that we were all looking for. The problem is when and what causes it to pop. For now I am quick happy staying away from China centered investments. Though that would include the other BRICs, and commodity investments. Those pictures from the article are very telling and this definitely will be a rough one. China is creating a boom in Russia, Canada, Australia, and Brazil via commodities. If they crash then the world will slow down everywhere. I can see why they dont want to let the currency float.

I guess great minds think alike. Its a slight speculation without the details but I am buying a big chunk around $3.05. I thought it would have went higher today and it just downed on me to buy more. Should have bought in the morning at around $2.75. Seems like a great way to juice the returns.

Is anyone buying more at $3?

biaggio I think that is a good starting point. I value Highmount at $2 billion, about 50% of purchase price. Auctually I value it at $1 Billion, $2 Billion, or $3 Billion or low, medium, or high. It was purchased for $4 billion including debt. They just sold a chunk of Highmount's assets for $300 million cash. I think at $9 gas it will be a cash cow, but with $3 cash its not worth too much. I also value the CNA and Boardwalk debt securities at face value or $1.25 billion. Finally the BP GP is worth quite a bit. After a watermark the GP will own 50% of the distributions from Boardwalk. That has to be worth something and is largely why I believe they are growing the platform and dividends. Also this is a current value based on todays prices. All of Loews businesses are at the bottom of the cycle.

You guys make too much money and live in the wrong states. I live in Texas, am in the 25% tax bracket and only have $20 k in my 401k. This is a no brainer for me. I also may have no taxable income depending on how the job situation works out. The only issue is will I be able to move and roll it over prior to the end of 2010.

Im itching to see where it stops, can hardly wait until the conference call. I am guessing we get to $5 and maybe $6 if they provide detail as to future cash flows. I may dump a bit to put it into SFK Pulp.

Cha Ching. Still working through the details, but any long term holders will finally receive a return on capital. This one of my larger holdings so definitely good news. http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/home/permalink/?ndmViewId=news_view&newsId=20100330006893&newsLang=en I have glanced at the deal and the details look very good. It looks like the balance sheet is firmed up with the items below and the transformation of ATSG to a cash cow leasing company is closer to being complete. Hopefully the call will provide us with details relating to profitability. # Remaining $31.0 million DHL Note to be amortized on a monthly basis so as to be extinguished at the end of the initial five year term, with no cash payment requirement from ABX Air Significant Items Resolved through Termination Agreement: * DHL agreed to pay ABX Air $31.1 million in settlement of open DC-9 and Boeing 767 freighter aircraft put values * Pursuant to a Letter Agreement between ABX Air and DHL signed in March 2009, ABX agreed to pay $15.0 million toward the outstanding DHL Note balance, thereby reducing the remaining balance outstanding to $31.0 million * DHL agreed to pay ABX Air an additional $11.2 million for reimbursement of accrued vacation paid out to ABX employees adversely impacted by DHL’s restructuring in the United States. ABX Air agreed to seek no additional reimbursement

The Loews annual letter is out. Nothing earth shattering, but a good recap of their strategy. For some reason I am drawn to the type of investments they do. Commodities and cyclical business. I think this is because you can pick your spots and buy when things are at look bad.

Here is a good place to start on FUR - I posted my valuation of FUR in the trade - http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=2022.0 This thread also has some good info - http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=1296.0 Let me know if you have any other questions on FUR. Its not the value it used to be, but I see it like FFH and Loews. Good long term values which still have a discount.

My only issue with Japan is the lack of catalyst. Its been cheap for 10+ years. Time value of money worries me especially as a small investor. If I was Whitman I would feel a bit better about it because he has the capital to create a catalyst, but Japan doesnt really have great governance either. I prefer safe cheap plays such as HRP-D or SSW (thanks for the HRP recommendations, I didnt get into the SSW) and dirt cheap deep value stocks such as ATSG, or SFK Pulp.

Thanks, a very good read. Here is the Krugman Article referenced in the Article and by Chanos http://web.mit.edu/krugman/www/myth.html

How do you convert your IRA if you are still employed?

I like BAM but think its too complicated and not too cheap. My money is on FUR, Loews, this is good news for anyone with cash. 50% is crazy though.

Some brokerages allow it. I know Think or Swim does. I wish I knew earlier though.

Very good article in the Economist It appears that Nixon faced similar decisions and also choose tariffs The number of congressmen signed on is also interesting. Nixon is not usually a source of inspiration for left-leaning pundits such as Paul Krugman of the New York Times. But like 130 congressmen, who this month signed a letter to Timothy Geithner, America’s treasury secretary, he is calling on the White House to emulate Nixon and impose a “surcharge” on imports from China. The tariff is supposed to force China to strengthen its currency, the yuan, against the dollar, just as Nixon’s surcharge prompted America’s trading partners to renegotiate their exchange rates four months later. http://www.economist.com/business-finance/economics-focus/displaystory.cfm?story_id=15770808

Thats a good point. Luckily or unluckily im in the US. I would hate though to have my gains eaten by currency changes if I was else where.

I dont think thats good news for you either.

CNA has basically sucked for the better part of 30 years. I dont know how you lose money with $40 billion in float but they have for a long time. My hope is in the new CEO who seems to be making all the write moves. He has come in and brought in a whole new structure and Management team. He worked for Chubb for 20 - 30 years and knows insurance. He is also putting his money where is mouth is and has been buying stock. They even made him Chairman of the Board so I believe he has free reign to do his thing. The Tisch brothers have also sold Loews stock to bet on CNA. CNA has 3 major insurance components - Speciality makes money and has $7 billion of Float. - Trying to grow this business. Commercial losses money and has $13 billion in Float. - Shrinking this business a bit. and Runoff which is long tail business has surprisingly about $15 billion in Float. - Mentioned selling the legacy runoff. I believe unrealized gains make up the rest, total float is around $42 billion. They took a huge hit with MBSs and are right sizing the portfolio. They have put the non agency MBS into run off and are trying to hold mostly corporate, agency mbs, and equity in LP Hedge Fund investments. --- The CEO wants to make money writing insurance and appears to want a vanilla investment portfolio with 7% - 10% in equities to juice returns. Everything sounds good and things appear to be changing very quickly. This gives more detail and if you have time listen to the broadcast, this one is good but I also like the one with the CEO. ----- Many others who invest in Loews either short CNA (DO, BWP also auctually) out. To pick up the GP, Hotels, Highmount, and $4 billion in securities for free. I invested in Loews and considered CNA fairly valued. I begin to look further into it and have come to like it overtime. I agree with you though. After watching FFH its hard to see a company continually lose money with such a high per share portfolio. I saw the massive insider purchases, and have slowly bought into it as I have learned more details. If they can turn it around before the market hardens then it should be a cash flow cow. The brothers say its the best value they see in the market right now. They see CNA as the driver of value for L. I agree DO and BWP will be cash cows but are closer to fully valued and Highmount will have to deal with low gas prices though they are the low cost producer next to MCF. The hotels are in the tank as well. http://phx.corporate-ir.net/External.File?item=UGFyZW50SUQ9MjgwNzcwMnxDaGlsZElEPTM3MzgxNnxUeXBlPTI=&t=1 The main downsides are the soft market and the Tisches see rates going up which means unrealized losses on the bond portfolio for CNA.