Myth465

Thanks for the advice. I was stuck in the middle last time and it was quite painful. This one is a bit funner to watch. Cash really does help you sleep at night. I am starting to understand what Mason Hawkins means when he says its the strategic asset.

Any thoughts on when this may end. It seems to get worse everyday. I dont feel full capitulation though (at least not for me).

My cash is being moved around to various accounts so my hands are tied actually. SD talked about those sub $3 holdings not being margin-able and that's the situation I am in. I see tons of screaming buys but think this will go on for a few more days (likely wishful thinking). SSW trading at 40% Distributable CF 2013, ESV 25% CF Yield, SD, PDS, L, CNA, ..... The list goes on. I really dont see the rationale behind the sale off, its seems almost manufactured by fear and high prices. Germany banning naked shorts seems like a smart move, and doesn't explain 600 points. Very interesting to watch. Thanks Parsad, you really convinced me to raise cash just wise I had a bit more. ---- SJ how do you get comfortable with additional leverage. I am looking at Leaps and Dec Options to conserve cash.

Thanks alot for the notes.

http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:FRFHF I trade that symbol with TOS.

Thanks for the update, very interesting. This is something I really need to work on. I tend to hold a bit too much at times.

Thats really funny. Thanks

Thats definitely good news, and now its more of a non issue. Now to figure out if it applies to the pink sheet shares.

I read an interview which said, A lot of my value investing friends think the world will fall apart but are fully invested. I tend to fall into that camp, but I have 20% cash. I have been calling for a pullback since $8k, I have learned you have to think for yourself on these things, ignore the crowd and look at the facts. If you are smart and your analysis is sound it should work out. If you cant do that then the next best thing is to simply be contarian. I fall into the later category. I don't think things are as bad as is believed now, but didn't think the market / economy had roared back like everyone thought a few months ago. I see this as another opportunity to reload, and my basic philosophy is this too shall pass. The market is overvalued and needs to come down. People much smarter than myself have done the analysis and said so (Grantham, Watsa, Many Others). Also the stocks we tend to like SFK, ATSG, SSW, FFH, LRE are fairly cheap, but will get cheaper with everything else. Time to reload. If the world goes to hell and a hand basket for the long term, then it doesnt really matter much anyway. Macro wise the only thing that really worries me is interest rates of 10% +. Its tough and I dont have any experience investing in that area. Some say its 3 years away, some say never, some say around the corner. I plan to stay in at least until I have a better understanding of what those rates do to businesses and investments.

I am starting to believe that the news agents just subscribe the news of the day to the market reaction whether up or down. I see this as good news. The market in my opinion is going down because it needs to.

Do you think the trading period will end after Q2 is announced or before? Also my reading is that FFH gets a 20% discount on any unsubscribed shares. lessthaniv Seems to believe that the pricing is flat regardless of who buys. Whats the boards general conclusion. I would love to be wrong on this one.

Im basing this on Parsad's comments. I probably should have included a question mark.

The hedge fund sold the shares at the top then announced the package. Thats quite interesting.

Thanks for the link and background info. From looking at the 13Fs this like Goldman and Citi are popping up in everyones holdings. I will have a look over the next few weeks. C and Goldman are in the too hard pile given my time constraints.

I believe all the companies are over capitalized. Couldn't they dividend up some funds to the holding company and buy equities there.

Looks like SD is right. We are getting a chance to reload. SFK makes up a decent chunk of my portfolio so I am sorting out what to do. SFK trades at around 2x EBITDA if you annualized the Q1 numbers. I think 5x EBITDA is the correct multiple to use for value given the commodity nature of the business and the debt load. If the pulp run looks a bit more sustainable then perhaps we can use a higher multiple. What do you guys think?

Interesting - http://stocks.investopedia.com/stock-analysis/2010/3-Investments-For-The-Price-Of-One-CRESY-IRS-HT-BRK.B-LUK-GS0514.aspx?partner=YahooSA I am going to dig a bit deeper into this one. My be another Loews.

The life style issue doesnt bother me so much. I would prefer a Watsa, Flatts, or Buffett spendthrift type running my business but, its not a primary consern. BH being down brings a smile to my face, and shows that sometimes the market can be efficient. It was down 10% earlier but is now hovering around down 5%. The real question is who is buying. Biglari is losing an important asset, high priced stock as a currency. Without it he will have to grow the old fashion way.

Thanks for the link. I will have a listen. Very big Gladwell fan.

Good Interview with Nassim Taleb http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=94646 Stop focusing on the last truck that drove across the bridge. Call the engineer.

I would check the proxy statements and the related party listing in the 10Q. That should tell you what you need to know. FUR Greenlight Those are the main 2 I know about. I bought FUR because he was significantly under his hurdle rate. I wouldnt buy Greenlight because I can get FFH for cheaper.

I havent moved out of them yet, but the pricing seems to be better than the USD FFH, I have both on my watch lists and the pricing on the OTC stock is typically higher. Liquidity is towards the bottom of my list of concerns, my assets are fairly insignificant to the point that the $75 foreign stock fee is one that's not worth paying.

My guess is they want to raise cash levels, they think the market has gone up too far and too fast, and they think these stocks are slightly overvalued at these levels and wanted to trim. I sold some long term holdings the other week due to a few of the reasons listed above. I believe I will have a chance to buy them back over the near term.

Buy the one which relates to your major currency. I bought FRFHF. Mainly because I dont want to deal with foreign securities and because I own the leaps and they were converted to track these OTC equivalents.

SFK is cheap, and should be money good (> $3) at some point, but I agree with Cardboard that this transaction adds no value and at a low PPS may add negative value. Management never really explained the need for it and things were progressing nicely in my opinion. SFK would have been revalued upward each quarter as things improved. Cash flow should go towards debt until Management feels comfortable. I would prefer a refinance without the share issue, unless they see pulp prices falling off the face of the earth in which case I dont really want to be subscribing to an offering. Either way we have alot more moving parts right now and potentially a massive global correction. Things should be interesting and I will likely be buying at some price point, but I dont like the issue the way they have laid it out. FUR did a rights offering which made sense, they wanted to buy loan assets, raised cash, bought assets, and generated cash flow. Thats the way you add value. FFH also raises cash with shares after they have something in mind for the cash. Something is going on, or should be going on from SFKs perspective. I see whats in it for FFH, but cant see why SFK Management would want this. They havent really laid out why. The only thing I can think of is they are terrified of debt due to their near crash last year. If that's the case then they should have just got it over with at $1.60 or so.