Myth465

JNJ and LUK for sure. I think you mentioned buying both a bit ago. Not sure about the other 2.

Is anyone worried about the fact that Lampert doesnt appear to really care about the owners of the company. He wont even let them know what the big plan is and is buying back shares without providing some sort of insight towards intrinsic value. I think it will work out well for Valuegeek and Bruce. I dont have a team to do the research on this one and Lampert likes to keep everyone in the dark. One thing is for sure, the man has to have some sort of plan.

No prob.

http://cornerofberkshireandfairfax.ca/forum/index.php?topic=2743.0

Thats funny. Most people would want that on their resume.

I dont have enough assets for this, but have a natural hedge. No Kids, Parents live down the street, and low costs life style (very little in assets, or capex). Its prudent though if you have kids or real worries.

I think if your heirs dont learn anything about money. The money you give them will soon be taken away. It doesnt take much to read a Fairfax or Fairholme letter and know that the guys are doing a good job. I recommend setting them down and showing them a few things. Nothing crazy but basic money management skills. If not they will do something dumb with the money at some point. I dont doubt that the Buffett kids are not too great on the investment side, but am quite sure they know how to pick a good money manager and how to monitor there progress over a decade or 2.

Very good and important question, should be combined with the cash poll. I have 3 in my portfolio, and 2 in my salary. So 1.5 would be my rating. Holding 100% cash inmo doesnt make much sense for me. If it were 10 to 1 I would hold more cash.

Cardboard I wholeheartedly agree with your assessment. I think the US is due for a rude awakening and that will cause severe pain in just about all sectors. I have been raising cash by swapping to leaps / long dated options, and so far its been the prudent move. It worked out very well with ATSG, and allowed me to raise significant capital. I dont really think one will find true safety (outside of cash and hedging), and also find the large cap discussion very dubious. A raising tide will rise all boats, and just the opposite will happen with a downturn. With that said I just cant sell everything and hide under a rock. It just rubs me the wrong way. I plan to sell some oil and gas holdings once the moratorium lifts, and my cash horde will grow with every pay check. I will keep my 70% - 75% in the market because 30% - 40% of it is with good owner managers (LRE, FUR, L) and they tend to invest counter cyclically also. SSW was in that boat, but they seem to have gotten aggressive which I dont really like. SD is an asset play and for it to work out they have to perform and keep the hedges rolling out as production raises. You have a point though, they have to do this now before we get a massive pullback in oil. KSP has my scratching my head. I am looking forward to seeing what Management announces come 8/31, a small dividend and debt repayment would be a good course, but who knows in this market. Interesting times, over the last few months I have learned things are never as good as they seem when times are good, and are rarely has bad as they seem when times are bad. I think we are in for a rough ride. Everyone here at least knew there was no green shoots, and jobs werent coming.

There was a very long discussion on it actually. Agreed, I think we are in for some painfully lean years. Like Buffett I dont think the world will fall apart, but agree with you that we are in for a rough ride that will throw up plenty of bargains. Most of my chips are on the table and I am adding to my cash pile each day via salary, I dont have nearly enough, but will be looking to take money off the table over the next few weeks. Im 20% cash, maybe 25% now. Its a wise move to be out of the market when its high or about to crash, but it is timing the market.

I love this quote, its one I reach for when my knees get a bit wobbly - Warren Buffett - "An argument is made that there are just too many question marks about the near future; wouldn't it be better to wait until things clear up a bit? You know the prose: “Maintain buying reserves until current uncertainties are resolved,” etc. Before reaching for that crutch, face up to two unpleasant facts: The future is never clear and you pay a very high price for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty actually is the friend of the buyer of long-term values." With that said. The cash I have is doing a great job of allowing me to sleep at night. I think I will hold onto it for sometime. Here are 2 other gems. I am waiting for the last one to play out. Right now we have frustration. Fear should be right around the corner. Levy Harkins - "Certainty, You pay a very high price for it in the investment world, and then you hardly ever get what you paid for." Warren Buffett - "Investors should remember that excitement and expenses are their enemies. And if they insist on trying to time their participation in equities, they should try to be fearful when others are greedy and greedy when others are fearful."

I use google reader and rss. I use google reader in my day to day anyway so this was a good move for me. Right now just my current holdings. I may add my watch list soon enough.

I have started using RSS. So far so good.

My money (literally) is on Ashner and Ackman. Hopefully they have their ducks in a row. Either way it will be fun to watch.

With regard to ATPG, I think the risks are overblown. Let me try to clarify my statements. The recent sell off in ATPG and SD are both due to the market being tired of the lack of performance, and empty promises. INMO the market is saying put up or shut up, we are tired of hearing about assets and want to see it in the bottom line. I think both selloffs were deserved, when you look at it from the context of traditional investors. ATPG will be partially revalued once the moratorium ends, and wont see intrinsic value unless they handle the debt and ramp up production. SD is the same minus the moratorium.

Honestly I think the market is being fair with ATPG and SD. They both need to execute. Both are cheap based on assets and future production, but the production is what the market wants. Us value guys are lucky we get, 2 birds in the hand with the assets, and have a shot at 3 birds in the bush if they can get the production up and running. SD now just needs to focus on drilling. With 30 rigs and enough cash for the startup we should do just fine. On the flip side everyone invested in SD has been burned so far.

Munger I tend to agree with you and feel that the market doesnt fairly discount the economic situation we are in and that large caps arent the value that everyone thinks they are (10x FCF is a great price in a flat to improving economy but I dont think thats where we are). With that said there is value out there, and those thoughts are irrelevant because no one here is likely buying the market. I own some great small caps (BYD.TO, KSP, ATSG) which are cheap - 3 - 5 x FCF and should do well unless things fall apart. Also FFH, and SSW are far from cigar butts. They should do well in a 3 - 4 year downturn.

I dont have an opinion on the investment, but do like your style. I prefer low risk, high reward but you got to take what you can get. Thanks

I am raising tax losses and selling the 7.50s to buy the 5s for 2012. If this continues I will raise more losses and sell the 2012s for the 2013. I hope to see rapid production growth on the oil side, hedges to match this growth and eliminate the risk in price fluctuation, and non core asset sells to raise capital and pay down debt. They need to start funding production capex with cash flow, and need to pay down all high yield debt. The stock will take care of itself if they can execute.

Here are Bass's comments. I tend to agree with him, should be interesting to watch. http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1568296901&play=1

Here is what Frank thinks. http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSN1716002920100818 I tend to agree with him.

Very interesting. He is talking his book, but its a good idea in my opinion. Stimulus without the costs (at least no upfront costs). http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=1568381031&play=1

I believe Dash tried it with Dennys but lost.

Thats the only thing that makes sense. Its hard to loose that much in a quarter.

A ban on this would suck for shale plays, but would be a positive for natural gas. MCF, L, and SD would benefit significantly.