Myth465

Thanks good read. Between and a convincing article on nat gas things are good.

Thanks for the links.

I would guess this is more about control than ego. I would think that the A shares will have more votes than B shares and he will mainly hold A shares. I would also guess that the people who think hes the next Jesus will continue to sing his praises and will come up with BS excuses as to why this makes sense.

LOL thats what I thought when I saw this on my RSS reader, I guess great minds ....

You guys are just jealous. I like the new and improved suave Bruce (also most would still say he is nerdy).

Exactly. You seem rather dismissive of any point raised. I think we just have to wait and see. Only time will tell. Eventually there will be an I told you so and a huge capital gain or capital loss.

I take these indicators serious but my stocks are cheap. For damage control, its long term capital which isnt needed and no call able leverage. (No leverage at my level except for leaps). Also many catalysts for my holdings. I think cash is the easiest hedge (stolen from Einhorn). I would raise cash levels as you get more nervous. I have 5% cash and would like more but cant find anything to sell. I couldnt buy LUK due to the run, I hold only a token position. Also rotated several of my holdings due to over-valuation.

mikenhe basically yes (Dallas has a bit more reason). Houston got a freeze and some ice and everything is shut down. Its quite nice.

honestly this is the only thing that really adds much value for me. Even given this I believe there have been Asian fraud with big name auditors. 1) Deloitte as auditor. Everything else is everything else. If one of the top value investors in China encounters and invests in frauds from time to time then..... Me thinking it may be a fraud has nothing to do with the title of the thread and more to do with the recent high levels of fraud regarding Chinese US Traded small caps. Either way it seems like you have done your homework so hopefully it works out. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=121288 In May of this year the largest hedge fund manager in China presented at the Value Investing Congress. I am referring to Lei Zhang of Hillhouse Capital Management who started his firm with $30 million in now manages $4 billion. His fund has returned 52% annualized since 2005 and holds a concentrated portfolio typically adding only 3 to 5 positions a year. Part of Zhang’s investing approach involves shorting fraudulent companies. And according to him up to 80% of the Chinese companies listed in the U.S. are frauds to one degree or another. Drink that in for a second. The largest and most successful Chinese hedge fund manager believes 80% of the Chinese companies listed in the United States are frauds. Where there is smoke there is almost always fire. I hope small investors don’t get burned in this case. If I was holding shares prior to learning of these accusations I believe the correct move would be to accept a small loss and get out rather than wait around and risk losing my entire position. ----- I think evidence and conviction works well till it doesnt. Unless I am on the ground and can verify or have several big name companies involved im punting.

Working or browsing from home. I bet those in the Northeast are thinking ...

I was at the meeting & this is not what Munger said. From my recollection, he said something to the effect of: Never in my life I have seen more people I respect holding so much cas. This makes 10 times more sense and I got you pre correction :). Its nice to have another guy here who makes spelling errors.

I have no dog in this fight but you seem convinced its not a fraud. Why do you think the report is wrong? Even looking at the title of this thread tells me there is at least a 2% chance its right.

It it just me but Blackrock owns 6% of all my holdings. ATPG, ATSG, SD, and more coming in everyday. I have seen them on my RSS at least 4 - 5 times.

Even Tilson is starting to get it. T2 Partners January Letter - Eating Some Humble Pie On Short Selling Mistakes Stock selection Over time we’ve been quite successful shorting fads, frauds, promotions, declining businesses, and bad balance sheets. Where we have had much less success, however, especially in recent months, is shorting good businesses that are growing rapidly, even when their valuations appear extreme. Such open-ended situations, regardless of valuation, are very dangerous, so going forward we will avoid them entirely unless we have a high degree of conviction about a specific, near-term catalyst. Netflix Since we first wrote to you in December about our Netflix short position, we have received quite a bit of new information including results from our survey, input from investors, and the company’s recent earnings release. We are still digesting this information, which has both bullish and bearish implications, and will write to you about our conclusions in the near future.

Even Tilson is starting to get it. T2 Partners January Letter - Eating Some Humble Pie On Short Selling Mistakes Stock selection Over time we’ve been quite successful shorting fads, frauds, promotions, declining businesses, and bad balance sheets. Where we have had much less success, however, especially in recent months, is shorting good businesses that are growing rapidly, even when their valuations appear extreme. Such open-ended situations, regardless of valuation, are very dangerous, so going forward we will avoid them entirely unless we have a high degree of conviction about a specific, near-term catalyst. Netflix Since we first wrote to you in December about our Netflix short position, we have received quite a bit of new information including results from our survey, input from investors, and the company’s recent earnings release. We are still digesting this information, which has both bullish and bearish implications, and will write to you about our conclusions in the near future.

My take away was FU. I am here to make my investors money. I will not tell you why I really own it until I have bought all I want. Right now it serves no purpose. Though it was said in a nice and friendly way. Why does he own Sears. He never tells you why he really owns something. He has kicked the tires around Sears, Joe, AIG, and all his holdings and sees something we dont. I dont get it so I dont own them.

Good points John. Something I missed, I was including the overall bailout in my assessment when you say "TARP" Bronco. The real bailout was the back door bailout, AIG, Freddie, Frannie, and the alphabet soup of programs and agreements.

Eric you are pushing it. I am going to have to stop checking this thread. You are even trying to take away the sweeter fruits. Maybe Jack was right, if it taste good spit it out. LOL

We have the link. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=120967 Warren Buffett fans appear to be some of the nicest most down to earth people (Sardar excluded). I think that is really his legacy. Bruce was in top form inmo. Momentum guys always look like ... inmo.

I still think you are looking at it incorrectly. No Tarp = Nationalization or Liquidating or some other derivative of both. If we go with the system will cleanse itself. Then one has to assume real unemployment / underemployment of greater than 15% - 18% (many think the real rate of unemployment / underemployment is around those numbers). - Unemployed people dont pay mortgages especially for overvalued homes. Neighbors dont pay mortgages when the values fall too much (very subjective). One also has to assume frozen credit markets, insanely low asset prices due to the lack of a bid, no backdoor AIG bailout, and huge losses based on derivatives and counter party risk due to interconnectivity. Do you really think Uncle Warren is being coy when he says it all would have come down but he would have been last? You cant just take losses to date and add them up. Then subtract them from pretarp capital. You have to take into account the macro environment. The assets on the banks balance sheets were worth substantially less in that panic and the liabilities were worth exactly the same. Add leverage of 10x - 40x and you have ....... --- I had significant CC debt while my assets were cut in half. If I had been laid off that would not have been repaid and Chase or JPM Chase would have reported a loss. I wasnt alone, as far as I know. I work in oil and gas. If gas and oil had stayed around $40 a barrel I am pretty sure much more people would have been let go. We let go hundreds at the company I work for and 1 person in my department. What I am saying is you cant just run an excel program and say see tarp wasnt needed. Life doesnt work that way. As value investors we all know that "animal spirits" matter alot more in the short term than valuation or figures.

I think my answer answers your question.

Yet the people still love him. But I guess we are all looking for the next Buffett.

I think its foolish to add up total losses and look at pre tarp reserves. Do you think there would have been a recovery (as fast) without tarp? Do you think more people would be out of work? Do you think said people would be paying their debts? Do you think you can look at these things in a bubble with no regard to whats going on in the real world? Bronco you are smarter than that. We had 3 choices. liquidate, liquidate, liquidate. - All Austrians Nationalize all failing entities. - Krugman / Roubini Some crappy mix of both options. - ??? We got choice 3, my goal isnt to analyze it, its to make money from it.

I dont short, and dont write checks I cant cash. Thats about it.

I think its a good move. CHK has the assets and has skilled Management. I notice when they come up the first thing someone does is recall the margin story. There is no way around it but that looks bad to value folks and you need value folks to step in and buy before the growth guys come in. I think Icahn and Simpson both bring alot to the story. Icahn has marked the bottom and tells you that its cheap, Lou tells you someone will be on the board watching over Management. Its a good move by Longleaf and CHK. I am guessing your leaps are close to in the money now. --- Ward said the logistics become too much with more than 10 rigs or so. The trust gives them cash, but I dont know if they have the personal / ability to do much more than 10 - 12 rigs. I would love for them to keep selling trust units and try to hold it all but that would be a hell of a lot of drilling. I like the way it was done because we get the cash upfront. They can use that cash to pay down a bit of debt, drill, and most likely buy more acreage (based on what I have seen of these guys). I am happy either way. A JV with a major / mid level or massive drilling with 30-40 rigs. Seems like a win win for us. It would be tough to hold all that acreage though, and knowing them they may get to 1 million. Im really looking forward to the conference. We had 15 presentations with no change and then have to wait 2 months for real updates after block buster news. --- Interesting and timely post. Highlights some of my issues with CHK but much more articulately. I like the JIT description of natural gas. http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=120817