Jump to content

Myth465

Member
  • Posts

    3,668
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Myth465

  1. watsa_is_a_randian_hero Thanks for your post. I am noticing the same thing. Thanks for fighting the good fight, this is very disappointing. I own several Canadian companies which feature yield. Looks like I will be moving those back to Wells Fargo...
  2. Your mentor can be this board. Ask away. But please ask questions intelligently. Lately we have gotten quite a bit of this - Stock Idea Thread Title This stock looks cheap, and they sell stuff. I think it might be a good buy. What do you guys think? Why would someone put 5 minutes writing a response to that when its obvious someone didnt put 5 minutes into the orginal idea. I probably wouldnt go too far back in terms of reading all of these threads. Here is how I find ideas. I watch most episodes of BNN Market Call - http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call.aspx I find the Canadian market dirt cheap. I am from the US, and live in Australia. In Canada you can buy oil and gas, manufacturing, oil field services companies, and REITs, for less than 10x cash flow. I have bought for between 3-5x cash flow in all of those areas. I find good value investors and follow them. I dont follow the big guys on Gurufocus, or dataroma. I follow small cap value investors. I have followed the CEO of Clarke into 2 ideas. I have picked up investments in 2 ideas from here - http://www.valueinvestigator.com/en/valuefavourites/ I think Eric Nuttal is one of the best oil and gas investors I have come across and I always listen for his thoughts.... I review every single idea that comes up on VIC. http://www.valueinvestorsclub.com/Value2/Idea/Index.aspx I dont have a membership. After 2 months all ideas open up. Often times something is on VIC and there is a discussion of the idea on here, I will tend to join that discussion. I have this forum on RSS, and read most threads in real time. Those are my recommendations. If you stick with it you will be fine. The math is the easy part, and if you can multiply you will be fine. The philosophy and mindset are the more interesting bits. There is a strategy / way of looking at investing which works for you. Your job is to find it, without latching on to too many other things.... Let me know if you have any additional questions.
  3. I guess most of my wins have been that simple... I will have a look at it over the next few weeks. Oil and gas is a bit of a black box, and mining is even worse.... Will be relying heavily on the royalty stream, and will look at the development stuff as upside.
  4. Congrats, I need to seriously look at ALS. I just dont buy the multiple story though. Hard to believe they buy something at 10x and are trading at 20x a few months later... I wish I bought some LTS. I have the same problem with PWE. When to sell. I think we will see 12 on PWE with a Duvernay sale though. Options really juice the returns and have no premium due to the dividend. I have given up on SGL. Why are you thinking preferreds? You can get 7% yields in Canada with growth in equity pretty easily.
  5. I dont think Australia will have a crash, just a few crappy years as well as a sideways housing market for a decade or so. Before I moved I was very worried about it, but things just dont seem so bad on the ground. The system here is very well designed, but assets are just overvalued. I probably wont ever buy AUS property and have been here for 3 years and havent bought an AUS share. You can short the AUD but it seems to be based and priced on sentiment, which is tough to take to the bank. Why did we drop from ~1 to .89, sentiment. Why are we back up to 93 sentiment. If China goes we will dive, but when will China go, will China go, how will China go??? http://www.cnbc.com/id/47290031 I agree with this article, and the quote below. Notice the date though...... “(In Australia) We see a credit bubble built on a commodity bull market based on a much bigger Chinese credit bubble,” Edwards said in a report. “Of all the bubbles I have seen over the last 30 years in this industry, this one is even more obvious.” According to Edwards, the lack of volatility in the Australian economic cycle and the absence of any recession since 1991 has led Australians to have an “excessive” appetite for debt in the belief the “future will reflect the past”.
  6. Sitting in Australia, I cant argue with your logic but inmo its a tough short due to timing. The AUD moves around with no real logic and has sat between 1.10 and 80 cents over the last 2 years. I tend to believe the USD should be worth more, and that the natural rate is closer to 80 cents. I hold all investment assets in USD / CAD outside of my super. I think Australia is due for a slow down, housing slump, china slump, or all of the above but have given up timing it or profiting from it. I will just pick over assets after something gives ...
  7. Very good info regarding asset sales and valuation. http://www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboard/t.pwt/penn-west-petroleum-ltd?postid=22586537
  8. Congrats. I should have bought LTS after the results. Canadian stocks move a bit later dont they. PWE and LTS should continue improvements. I will likely add to PWE in a few days.
  9. Looking at the updates now. Really like the first paragraph. http://spyglassresources.mwnewsroom.com/Files/f0/f04e6538-1dc7-47ef-83cb-131138b5c18c.pdf  Funds flow from operations for the first quarter of 2014 of $16.0 million ($0.13 per share), represents a 40 percent increase over fourth quarter 2013 funds flow from operations of $11.4 million ($0.09 per share), reflecting higher commodity prices and improved operating and cash netbacks. http://www.spyglassresources.com/images/stories/files/May-2014-Presentation.pdf Upon closer inspection results seem a bit mixed, especially considering the leak. We are more or less in the same place with decent cash flow, a really high dividend and alot of debt. They seem to be doing the blocking and tackling correctly, but will need a big asset sale to get the debt down. I like the plan, the asset base is too spread out, but its a slow process.
  10. Myth, What do you and others who know a good deal about what goes on in the oil patch think about the new developments at Petrobank? They appear to have all but thrown in the towel on their THAI process and injected steam down into their wells. Presto! They are now producing 650 Bbls of oil per day and 1700 Bbls of liquids plus they are merging with Touchstone 60% 40% with Petrobank getting the majority of stock after the merger. Touchstone is producing about 1600 Bbls of oil per day in Trinidad with the prospect of bringing in new wells at a cost of about $25,000/barrel per day of production. Plus, Petrobank still has about half the cash pile it started with a year and four months ago before wasting almost half it's cash on THAI, plus no debt. Havent paid attention. Was never in Petrobank, and too many easy stories in the Canadian Oil patch. I think this will take time to be rerated due to the THAI stench. May have a look now though. Even thinking of buying LTS again...
  11. Not out yet. I am refreshing though. Should be out soon. I was referring to LTS. You should sell out of PWE and buy a smaller component of Leaps inmo.
  12. I too bought more. Spyglass, LTS results were quite nice. They could have less than $500 mill in debt by YE.
  13. Even lightstream had a good quarter... http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lightstream-announces-first-quarter-production-232139288.html They are really paying down that debt.
  14. PWE had great results inmo. I even bought a bit back of Spy. PWE did very well with increased Gas pricing. Spy should have good earnings as well. http://pennwest.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=27585&item=135216
  15. I listen to presentations from this conference every year. Will post recommendations as I go through them. Will likely start with the real estate ones. http://www.milkeninstitute.org/events/gcprogram.taf?function=videos&eventid=GC14
  16. Spyglass has completely missed the run. 15% div is nice, dont think they will cut but can never be sure. I will do well with Clarke, and I think GA at Clarke will push for them to do whats right (inmo keep the dividend and sell some assets to shrink the focus area / asset base). Exciting though. Love earnings season, and really liking IB. My portfolio is becoming Canadian dominated.
  17. Still holding PWE options. Thinking about LTS options but very simpler to PWE with less coverage, smaller assets, weaker Management. PWE has reduced HC significantly and that will show thru. 25% of portfolio is in Clarke which is heavy energy related. Hold Savannah, will buy back Xtreme, and will continue to accumulate Nighthawk. Biggest miss was not buying Gear Energy because I couldnt find Pink Sheet shares. They werent out yet. I missed an 80% run..... Its fueled my move to IB... Biggest win was moving on from Sandridge. What are you doing?
  18. Services have already run. I had Xtreme Drilling which was up 80% and High Arctic which ran 50% or so. Even PDS is up. Savanna Energy is up 20% in 1 month of owning it. I think the drillers have run, and probably wouldnt be adding to them, but I do still like Savanna and High Arctic. 12% CF yield is not great for services company. I am used to 25% or so. They are tied to O&G. Also sold Spyglass, will buy more Clarke instead. Bought Nighthawk as well.
  19. Ya I would pass. Look at Petrobank for a look at how science stocks work out. It may work out or may not, but whats your advantage here?
  20. i havent read an Econ book in years but this one keeps popping up. Planet Money said its the book of the year and required reading - http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/04/09/301010519/episode-530-marijuana-law-school-and-centuries-of-inequality?ft=1&f=93559255 Krugman says it has the right scared and their only response is to call him a Pinko Marxist (LOL look at the posts in this thread) - http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2014/04/paul-krugman-the-piketty-panic.html Here is an Hour an a half debate on it that I plan on watching later in the week - http://economistsview.typepad.com/economistsview/2014/04/video-piketty-krugman-stiglitz-and-durlauf-on-capital-in-the-twenty-first-century.html
  21. Yes I may eventually sell Spyglass for Zargon which I bought a few months ago and is up 10% thus far. Canadian's know what they want - Debt at 1-2xCF, small bit of growth, and sustainable dividend before asset sales. LTS, PWE, and SPY will stay down until they get there. Spyglass will have to get there, and unless they sell something it wont happen. That makes it similar to PWE, and LTS. I wish I had stuck with my basket idea, or bought more of the other names listed. I am pleased that alertmeipp said that Wright said that the market is like night and day. Say what you want about Wright. He is one of the best deal makers in the space. Hopefully it will allow all the names mentioned to sell assets, at reasonable prices. --- Also Value Digger seems to find the best O&G stocks. He posts on Seeking Alpha.
  22. LOL interesting point. Not those kind of dreadlocks. More Corporate style dreadlocks if that makes sense. Im black. I used to work in Oil and Gas.
  23. Yes Jan 2016, I have $5 ones which break even at $8.40, and $7 ones which break even at $9.30. PWE was a $13 dollar stock before the plan / cut on sale speculation. Now they have put up 55% interest in Peace River, as well as the very hot Duvernay play for sale. This is a non producing asset with 2 wells on it. If they get $1 billion retire debt then we are sitting pretty. http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-11/penn-west-breakup-seen-returning-3-7-billion-real-m-a.html Assets including the Duvernay shale position and half of Penn West’s acreage in the Cardium region could be valued at about C$1.2 billion in a sale, Greg Pardy, a Toronto-based analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, estimated in a June 6 note to clients. ---- Post sale they can drill the 3 core areas, will likely still have Peace River, and will likely still have Montney Gas. Pennwest doesnt talk about these 2 JVs but about $2 billion was paid for 50% of them within the last few years. http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/penn-west-mitsubishi-sign-gas-venture/article1378104/ They have drastically reduced costs / HC and are also chasing a best in baisin strategy. There are too many assets so something good should happen, and the cost cutting / debt reduction eventually has to flow through to the numbers.
×
×
  • Create New...