Myth465

I like the MLPs that Klarman was into. EVEP being my favorite followed by BBEP and LINE. Most have hedged gas at $6-$8 for a few years. The CEO of EVEP sees $2 gas after labor day which should be interesting. Gas storage is also at an all time high but, 50% of the rigs have dropped off. Something has to give but not sure when things will turn.

Cardboard, I must say you are probably the most consistently critical member of this board when it comes to FFH and I like it. Also something thoughtful, keep it up.

I dont know much about the working capital model but, current assets = total iabilities, so I dont see the $5 in cash on the balance sheet. The working capital may be negative but, if you shut the business down or if things slow then then it would have to be paid with real cash so I dont see the point in removing it. I dont think the 9 Billion could be paid out, so how is it excess cash.

I vote overvalued.

Looks like more big buying. http://206.222.29.162/history/company.jsp?company=atsg Im guessing they know a bit more then us.

As an internal auditor i can tell you we dont have much to do with SEC reporting. At least not at the companies I have dealt with.

ATSG appears to have had a decent quarter with CF of about $30 million (EBITDA plus interest and taxes). In my opinion there are still too many moving parts to come up with an accurate valuation. Management appears to be handling the wind down of the DHL business well and their explanation for the termination of the ACMI on the call was excellent. It appears that DHL and ATSG want to squeeze the unions for some cost concessions and hope to sign a new better agreement where DHL has predictable costs and ATSG earns a decent margin on its assets. I would say the stock is worth north of $3 but, less then $8 and that analysis isn't worth much. I plan on holding to see what the balance sheet looks like in Q3 and also holding for additional announcements on the leasing of the 767s. DHL by law cant operate the airplanes and inmo will lease them from ATSG and find an operator or will let ATSG handle everything. To come up with a full valuation we need a settled balance sheet and some ideas on the margins related to ACMI work and dry lease work. The presentation earlier this year provides some details but, I prefer to wait and see what a few contracts look like. I also want to see how much overhead consumes and what happens with this underfunded pension liability. It looks like they had a gain of $16 million but, I don’t see how you can lay off 8000 people and not have it change by much. I think the stock sold off on the bad ACMI news but, will continue going up if new planes or leased, or on a new ACMI agreement with DHL. The real only bad news to me was the disagreements over vacation reimbursement and plane valuations. These show that DHL and ATSG haven't fully worked out their differences and are still not totally on the same page. The loss of business which produced less then 3% margin doesn’t bother me much. With regard to the balance sheet the positives are significant cash coming in with cash on hand of $112 million + $60 million due from DHL with $15 million going back to DHL for the note reduction. On the liabilities side there will be a reduction in Q3 of $47.5 million for capital leases which went to DHL. On the negative side it looks like we will have to pay $26 million towards the pension liability.

Thats my biggest fear with Compton. They really have no way to pay off the debt. My new favorite idea is ICO Convert Bonds. http://www.investinginbonds.com/corporatebonds/(ayale155qnnpizqgggmagcv4)/cusip.aspx?action=all&cusip=45928HAD8 12% yield with a Kicker on the convert.

Just wanted to see what you guys thought were some good bond issues. The one I like the best is ICO's 2014 bonds YTM = 14%. http://www.investinginbonds.com/corporatebonds/(bsca0555h5cg1pz1euwafp45)/cusip.aspx?action=all&cusip=45928HAA4 3 months ago was better but, do you guys see anything interesting out there. Compton Petroleum is interesting but, slightly risky.

I was just about to ask when everyone was selling there leaps. Too bad I only had 1 at 260 still a nice chunk of change considering my portfolio size.

Perhaps play it similar to the US Housing Crash. Short Banks, Long CDS

Its not a GOV building but seems like a great deal. Brookfield wanted it at $250 but couldn't come up with the financing. So far im impressed with management. The building, with an attached parking structure, is 93 percent leased and includes Ink! Coffee and Heidi’s Brooklyn Deli outlets. It is home to the headquarters of Molson Coors Brewing Co.

I sold out a while back and want to buy back in. Hopefully Klarman wont allow the dilution but, all of the MLPs and shipping stocks seem to want to buy high and sell low. Interesting.

You get a higher yield and to me the preferred is safer. 13% or so, and the preferred seem to be tracking the common in terms of appreciation.

HRP is a convertible preferred for HRPT Properties Trust. HRP should be able to pay the div of 13% and the preferred acts as a LEAP for HRP. There is a thread about it in the regular board and I have a fair bit. The more I read and learn about it the more I like it. Seems like a safe 13% with an equity kicker. ORH-A is great but, not too much upside aside from the DIV.

We are now closing in on $22, im getting close to selling. HRP-D seems like a decent replacement.

Thanks for the rec JEast the more I read and think about HRPT the more I like it. I am already up 12% on the Ds and you are up quite a bit more. I would love to buy more but, feel as if I should dig deeper for other issues. I also like LXP convertibles though they have more issues then HRPT (maturity issues mainly, FUR like them though). What do you think.

Seems like this is a buy and hold and one could accumulate a few shares each quarter as things play out. The 767s seem very profitable.

They arent too leveraged compared to other REITs. GOV seems like a good deal but, is trading at a higher FFO multiple. HRPT is levered 50% and has no serious maturities for the next 2 years. I think the preferred is simply convertible into 1.92 of the common. Last time I checked it was 26 percent under water for a convert.

Thanks for the tip. I have loaded up on HRP and am looking to trade out of ORH.A soon. Do you know of any other issues as nice as this one? I love the steady interest and equity kicker.

I like BAM alot and have invested about 4% in them but, really wise they would further simplify thier operations. I know they have been divesting of assets and streamlining for some time but, I think more needs to be done. They have too many platforms and other public companies under there umbrella which makes for a complex story. I however love the Management, like the assets, and think the value is there if they can keep up with debt maturities. I think the Commercial Re will be fine and they may pickup a few properties and I like the energy assets alot. their

Another day another dollar. I would love to see an updated balance sheet and income statement post DHL. Im hoping most of the underfunded pension debt falls off due to the layoffs, and can only guess what the put option will do to some of the that long term debt. If they can significantly deleverage and earn even just $100 million in cash a year then we are looking at a great return with even just a 5 multiple.

Thats my thinking cardboard. Waiting for more info wasn't a bad idea and could have actually been prudent but, anchoring on price when details changed was the ultimate mistake.

Thats what I am hoping for. The earnings are very difficult to model but, I think everyone thinks its worth much more than $1. We need one clean quarter without the DHL sort and a resolution to the DHL leases, that way everyone can see what G&A and cash flow really look like. Then like you said we will have a small company with very stable cash flow. Looking forward to those days and north of $4 would be great.

Anyone watching ATSG. Cardboard you should be close to your basis what are your thoughts. Everyday has been a consistent 10% - 25% and insiders have spent about $1,100,000 buying shares on a $90 million dollar stock.