valueventures

https://cdn.hl.com/pdf/2024/q2-2024-insurance-brokerage-market-update.pdf

I'm sure this post will get criticized and people here will "call the top" and "call for Powell to raise rates", but I continue to be astonished by the quick $ people are making on memecoins (Trump, jailstool, etc.). I don't have crypto exposure today, but want to be positioned to take a shot on some of these memecoins in the future (with a small sum of money I'm willing to lose, with the understanding that permanent impairment is possible). If anyone on here has played in these newly launched memecoins outside of more conventional crypto (Bitcoin, ethereum, etc.), it would be helpful to hear how you've approached this. I've downloaded a few apps (Moonshot, Phantom, etc.) and am just generally experimenting with the interfaces / logistics at this stage. A few questions: Which app(s) are best for this? Which app(s) allow you to deposit cash rather than crypto? Just from playing around on Moonshot and Phantom so far, it appears only Moonshot allows you to deposit cash. I've read that some have had issues withdrawing proceeds. Has anyone experienced this? In the case of Moonshot, it appears one can sell their holdings in Moonshot, transfer the cash (USDC) into a Coinbase wallet, and then, from the Coinbase wallet, convert the USDC to USD and transfer into his/her bank account. Lastly, I'm curious if anyone has developed a systematic way of "getting in early" to these memecoins. I'd be curious to do some back-testing to see if / where there was mention of these coins launching in advance (Wall Street Bets, Twitter, etc.). Thanks in advance for any help / insight you can provide!

Figured I'd quickly add to the CSU conversation, as I'd also love to get my hands on a few shares during a pullback. Have looked at Topicus and Lumine too, but always struggle with valuation. Broadly, I think serial acquirers provide more optionality (and diversification) than one-trick organic ponies. I've been fortunate to own Terravest under this logic (still holding, but probably not a net buyer at these levels). Has anyone looked at VitalHub? I've seen it floated on Twitter as a baby CSU (albeit with more of a healthcare focus). Similar case where valuation has run up, but I like the fact that it's much smaller and should theoretically have a lower base from which to compound (and a resulting longer runway for M&A). No position yet, just light diligence so far... Thanks all!

Mine are probably IWG, MATR, and GRUSF.

Curious what stocks intrigue you. My most actionable watchlist ideas at the moment are APO, IBKR, BRO, and MUSA, but all are too expensive at the moment.

In addition to the 2025 Portfolio thread, figured I’d start a thread focused on sharing everyone’s top ideas. What stock or handful of stocks do you expect to outperform and why? Looking forward to hearing responses, thanks!

Big announcement day (hopefully!).

While all the names referenced in this thread have been quality compounders, they obviously have large market caps. Curious if anyone has thoughts on companies that are more small-to-mid cap in size that are earlier in their compounding lifecycles. I own FFH over BRK because it is much smaller and should therefore compound from a lower base, and am looking for a similar dynamic among insurance brokers. Thanks!

Starter in MATR.TO

Starter in BN.

What's your thesis on SCR.TO? I'm long as well, but this one doesn't get much discussion here. Thanks!

Also a small starter in SNDL...hoping for a quick flip on this one.

Nice portfolio, but where is GLASF?!

Added to GLASF on the dip

More Fairfax

I don't have a strong preference. I've read that KKR is better suited for low rate environments and APO for high rate environments, so would expect KKR to perform a bit better if/when rates get cut. Also, I follow a few hedge funds (1 Main, Greenhaven, etc.) that are long KKR. Lastly, I thought that S&P 500 index inclusion would be a catalyst for KKR (which ended up materializing and resulting in a nice pop in share price). I'd love to own APO at the right price...we'll see if the market affords me that opportunity.

Why did you sell APO and KKR? Both solid long-term compounders. I only own KKR and still think it’s reasonably priced (25 P/E) despite YTD outperformance.

Any current ideas for companies that you could see being acquired?

Can't buy anything with Schwab being down. Crazy stuff

IGIC is the only other player that I’ve seen with comparable valuation to Fairfax. I believe it’s at like 1.2-1.3x BV. KNSL is in my too-hard pile with that valuation.

Any players in the space that people see as reasonable / good value today? AJG and BRO would be my long-term picks, but hesitant to start positions today given how they've run up in price and valuation.

I’m looking at BLDR too. Do you have a view on BLDR vs. CRH? Thanks!

I am not, but thanks for asking

I'm up ~5x on AAPL, ~8x on NVDA, ~3x on META, and ~2.5x on AMZN. Cost basis on my other holdings is significantly lower since I've owned them for a much shorter period of time. FFH is my largest position at MV only because it's also my largest position at cost basis, by far.

While the core of my portfolio is passive (VOO), my active exposure includes the following (ordered from largest to smallest by current MV rather than cost basis): FFH.TO NVDA AMZN AAPL META NNI BRK KKR GRUSF SCR.TO GOOG JOE GLASF TVK.TO IWG Curious to hear thoughts - I'm a 30-year-old for reference. I'd prefer to have slightly less big tech exposure, but that's mostly a function of 1) significant appreciation and 2) the fact I own them in a taxable account and don't yet see a reason to incur a large cap gains tax. Thanks!