DooDiligence

Full Disclosure: the only vote for “I like your take on pharma supply chain” came from me. Thanks 4 all the lovely drink offers! Sanjeev, may I change my username to DewshDilligence?

Returned around $2.3B to owners through buybacks & divs over the past 10 years which is more than their mkt cap now. Low debt & not bad looking actually. Haven't been into a store. I gotta say that if you walk into a mall to get eyes on retail clothiers, you will leave without wanting to invest a single penny in any of them. But there's a ton of fear attached to the sector (duh.) If you choose to play Fear Factor & can successfully eat one of these nasty looking morsels (with a catalyst attached) you could win immunity going into the next tribal council.

ASNA equity is a 0. Why? Top-line is deteriorating due to full penetration of portfolio of tired brands, combined Nov / Dec comps declined 4.4% (however they had to increase promotions to drive comps) with pre-Christmas comps (i.e. first three weeks of Dec) down 10-17% Profitability is now concentrated in one brand (maurices, ~62% of profitability) which has reached penetration and as the brand moves online, will face significant competition from ecommerce players Justice, historically the Company’s second PNL generator, has collapsed under increased competition and a turnaround is unlikely given pricing pressure and erosion of store-base competitive advantage All of ASNA’s other brands are fully penetrated and contribute limited profitability Significant actual and implied leverage creates a very levered entity that drives significant decremental margins on small downward changes in sales (and vice-versa) Company put on significant leverage for its last acquisition and currently sits on $2B leverage on $580M of EBITDA (i.e. 3x+) which is a lot for a brick-and-mortar retailer, most of the public comps don’t even have debt (with far better top-line trends) In addition, ASNA has 4 concepts across 750+ stores which creates structural issues in world increasingly shifting to e-commerce Assumed lease payments of this $750M capitalized at 10x imply leverage of 5.5x+ This is an overleveraged retailer with tired brands in structural decline that could be facing negative cash flow in 2-3 years - just screams structural short. I wanted to like these guys because of the plus sized concepts but I visited them all at an outlet & a nearby mall & was underwhelmed by the competition. I continue to like Carter's Oshkosh because: -10% store comps US & Canada last qtr but +2% ytd Opening 240 new stores by 2021. Consistently closing 5 or 6 non performing stores per year. Co-branded stores doing well. All stores cash flow pos. Wholesale flat. E-commerce biz up +20% e-commerce comp. New biz with Amazon (Simple Joys includes value packs developed exclusively for Amazon.) Canada & China were big drivers online. Launched on Alibaba T-mall in 2015 & doing well. 86% of regular customers shop in store (so says management.) Pou Sheng International Chiang relationship expanding (they manage more than 8000 stores for Nike & Sketchers among others.) 12 stores open in China now with plans to open 40 in 2017. Wants to have 200+ stores by 2021. http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2017-03/31/content_28749781.htm Expects 4% to 6% overall sales growth thru 2017. I think this looks like a hit in China if Pou Sheng really wants to run with it. People love merchandise with foreign stuff written on it (or maybe that’s just me.) These guys get e-commerce (and, um, Garanimal’s. someone else likes children’s apparel.) and http://fortune.com/2017/04/11/gymboree-bankruptcy/ May present opportunities for both Carter's & Children's Place...

Just mushrooms, way back when, but no psychotropics since I had to start paying my own bills (except THC) Might be a good time to try this since my goalposts have been moved to another field that's set up for a different game. I remember reading in the Anarchist's Cookbook about all kinds of freaky psycho-concoctions. The book also had a lot of info on how to move a whole bunch of peoples goal posts all at once!

ayup! http://lmgtfy.com/?q=what+is+an+mmo I remember back before they were "Massive" playing a text based MUD. hack & slash MUD! Absolutely. I remember us MUDers would take over a whole computer lab for the night at school. Basically a room with a bunch of DEC workstations w/ huge 20" monochrome monitors. I never graduated to the graphical MMOs, probably because I graduated and got a job, got married, etc, and got back to the single player game. Was offshore a lot & didn't have internet (lucky 2 find a phone.) Clubbed a lot on time off & gave up online (played stuff like Squad Leader face 2 face) Came back into gaming with a PS2 & Red Faction + FIFA 03, 04 & 05 No time for games any more unless you consider finance a game. but this looks interesting https://www.rockpapershotgun.com/2016/09/22/hackmud-is-an-mmo-hacking-sim-with-a-90s-vibe/ https://www.hackmud.com

ayup! http://lmgtfy.com/?q=what+is+an+mmo I remember back before they were "Massive" playing a text based MUD. hack & slash MUD!

ayup! http://lmgtfy.com/?q=what+is+an+mmo

That link reads like a solid roadmap through a minefield. (does it obviate the need to read the entire book?)

It can certainly be played that way, but not if you want to actually ever feel sustainably happy and satisfied and fulfilled, IMO. Wait, I don't get to kill random strangers on the street and jump on their corpses for fun? What kind of game this is? ::) ......... IMO the post makes some good points, but the metaphor used in it is crappy. Single player game does not mean "it's not competitive". Single player game does not mean that you are content. Lots of single player games are competitive and do not result in happy life. Also the image of "single-player game" conjures is that nothing matters but you. Maybe the author has not played many single player games, but yeah there's tons of "get millions in gold, get the castle, get the princess, get the superhuman abilities, get the McMansions" in single player games. Which is not what the author writes about in the article and definitely not what Liberty (and others) preach in terms of family, etc. Edit: Ah, DooDilligence just posted an exact link that "single player game" metaphor conjures in my mind: http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-mental-tricks-getting-over-yourself/ . Solipsism. That's what single player game is. And that's not what author wants to say. ::) Be happy. That is what a single player game can be, but not what it has to be. You are playing a single player game, but you choose how you play. Anything you do for others, in the end, you do because it makes you happy to do so (or at least happier than whatever the alternatives are). Your game starts when you are born and ends when you die, it is single player and takes place entirely inside your head. That doesn't mean you have to be a jerk. If being nice to others makes you happy then you can choose to build your character accordingly. I watched a show the other day on PBS about Mipso (great band) & at the end of it, Libby Rodenbough talked about how she goes about not get trapped in bad personas. Always changing (the way she said it was simpler & more eloquent & unfortunately I can't find the clip.) “...checking out of society for awhile and maybe retreating into a more inward spiritual space. Then, consequently, the experiences of realizing that you need to rejoin the world and be a participant in it. I do have this feeling, and I think a lot of people like me have this feeling, that privilege gives you the opportunity to check out and be ironic, cynical observers of the world," she said. "but you can’t just check out and expect things to run smoothly.” - LR -- a little bit of modern Blue Ridge twang -- Moving in & out of single & multi player (compete vs non-compete) can help you become a better singles player who's capable of spreading the joy & being a true multi-player...

It can certainly be played that way, but not if you want to actually ever feel sustainably happy and satisfied and fulfilled, IMO. Wait, I don't get to kill random strangers on the street and jump on their corpses for fun? What kind of game this is? ::) ......... IMO the post makes some good points, but the metaphor used in it is crappy. Single player game does not mean "it's not competitive". Single player game does not mean that you are content. Lots of single player games are competitive and do not result in happy life. Also the image of "single-player game" conjures is that nothing matters but you. Maybe the author has not played many single player games, but yeah there's tons of "get millions in gold, get the castle, get the princess, get the superhuman abilities, get the McMansions" in single player games. Which is not what the author writes about in the article and definitely not what Liberty (and others) preach in terms of family, etc. Edit: Ah, DooDilligence just posted an exact link that "single player game" metaphor conjures in my mind: http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-mental-tricks-getting-over-yourself/ . Solipsism. That's what single player game is. And that's not what author wants to say. ::) Be happy. That's what I got from it 2

OK, I'm over myself now. Learn how you 2 can banish solipsism... http://www.cracked.com/blog/5-mental-tricks-getting-over-yourself/

++ Screw multi-player...

I just hit the B's in Walkers Penny 2000 ed. Seeing how different companies go from public to PE or get absorbed into a larger entity or simply go all Zombie, gives more insight into what could happen to your cherished positions. An example regarding ATS Money Systems. Who wants to own a company that makes cash counting machines in a society going cashless? http://www.uv.es/~fores/programa/griffith_cashless.html -- De la Rue, that's who (imagine that, a company that prints money wanting to own a money counting business.) http://www.delarue.com http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/proposed-merger-of-ats-money-systems-inc-announced-71515682.html http://www.investegate.co.uk/article.aspx?id=200103021201048247Z Good history of the company's trials & tribulations http://www.fundinguniverse.com/company-histories/de-la-rue-plc-history/ -- De la Rue looks Ugly, lumpy & went on to pay out well over their mkt cap in dividends over the past decade (not saying it was due 2 this purchase, just that you find stuff like this looking through a 17 year old Walker's listing) I'm not pumping De la Rue, just thought it showed an interesting example of deal flow...

Their past opaque practices & pricing have put them in the too hard pile for many. Consumers hate them because their job is to save payers money by not allowing a prescription or making the patient bear more of the burden. They're an easy target in this environment. The recent earnings call really added a lot of color to the business & more transparency into pricing. I believe they perform a useful service & are removing the target from their backs. --- I agree that Amazon is a huge threat. --- Amazon vs CVS & WBA --- On free EHR with Amazon Healthcare Solutions Partner --- Direct link to Amazon Cloud Computing in Healthcare https://aws.amazon.com/health/ --- more in my tweets about MyMatrixx purchase & changes in corporate culture towards altruism (these guys have to become great content marketers in addition to performing pharma logistics services for manufacturers, payers, patients & distributors.) Efforts towards culture shift for consumer facing end https://www.goodrx.com http://www.mobihealthnews.com/content/mango-health-express-scripts-announce-strategic-investment-longterm-partnership M2c

I don't think that's what I am saying. You can put me down for "I read what you write and I comment if I have something to say". I love you man!

So can I put you both down for "I'd have a drink with you but stay away from my wallet?"

Oh, and another part of the insecurity is probably me seeking confirmation (but it was really about getting some clicks.)

Thanks, the silence was deafening. It's a little bit about insecurity (that part's more the hook 4 responses) & it's a lot about hearing from a bunch of people I've come to respect for sharp analysis & insights.

;)

So I'm trying to figure out why nobody here seems interested in pharma supply chain (including payers) Is it me? Are my thoughts regarding the industry & players valueless? Maybe I just don't deserve the time you'd all have to spend commenting? Anywho... (stay needy my friend)

http://www.fairfaxcounty.gov/library/dbsremote/ and when you click on the Morningstar link it takes you to http://library.morningstar.com/Membership/Authenticate.html?stat=2&Name=Fairfax or https://ezproxy.kcls.org/login?url=http://library.morningstar.com --- not sure if that's what you're looking for...

Not sure how old you are but the target market for Bucke is 12-24 with a few 30-40 year olds that want to look like they are hip. in the past, they have done things that was different then standard retail. Sometimes it was for the better and sometimes they swung and missed. To my knowledge, they are always asking customers in the store what they like and don't like to adjust their mix correctly for that particular store. Their target mkt is the nightclub set. They provide a great selection of unique jeans & accessories with a faux tailored experience. Hard to fit in to todays landscape...

Optically, BKE appears to be a deal but I think management is floundering in the new world. They used to stress the fact that they don't discount & now u walk into a store & get hit with CLEARANCE racks. They give lip service to ecom but the results are dismal.

for that matter PVH (I think Calvin Kiein has better brand recognition.) You don't see their smaller fragrance bottles in TJ Max or Ross any more (I think they've taken back control somewhat...) I used to carry a half dozen bottles of Obsession & CC clearance shirts to Brasil & they'd sell immediately. "Calvin Klein é muito chique" Great cash flow (wouldn't buy though) I've made my choice, CRI...

I'll start... http://uglymule.com/Feira-Hippie.jpg Stories add extra points to submissions.