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Everything posted by DooDiligence
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Having an affinity for a particular product or service which solves problems for prospects & selling it with integrity makes for an unstoppable force. I believe that you need to ID yourself as a tangibles or intangibles type of person to make sure you're selling something you believe in (if you're a "things" person, you should be selling things & if you're an "ideas" person, then you should be selling less tangible items - like Scotty?) I sold jewelry for a while & was a miserable failure because I'm more of an ideas guy & I actually felt that the engagement ring biz was bogus (I should stop looking at Lucara Diamonds but damnit precious stones fascinate me even if I still think the biz is based on a fairy tale.) I just realized that I was trying to sell engagement rings & prob should've been selling love & commitment (would have required a move from B2B to B2C? nah, wouldn't have worked for me.) Following oddballs formula is a guarantee of success & helps remove the pain of rejection because you understand it's not a rejection of you (and if you're prospecting effectively, you'll have a lot more doors to knock confidently.)
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Thanks! I wonder how triple entry will affect companies like Robert Half which provides temp & ad hoc accounting & audit personnel? My skepticism for cryptocurrencies has blinded me to the opportunities in blockchain. I've frequently been blinded a by knee jerk, distaste for ideas based upon their most visible characteristics (unable to see the forest 4 one big ugly tree) (Blackberry & AIG come to mind...)
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IDK much about blockchain & this article doesn't add much to the discussion of crypto$ valuation but the Question raised by the author "Why do I want 2 remove the intermediary?" seems like it could be asked of other industries (and I'm interested in the comments of wayyyy more knowledgable posters here...) http://www.zkorman.com/blockchain.html BTW - I have no interest in trading crypto$ & instead, am interested in seeing if there are other applications for the tech beyond finance.
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Here is Warren Buffett’s first tax return, filed at age 14
DooDiligence replied to doughishere's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
He shorted ATT (no divs for that.) ----- "...he ran two paper routes and published a racing tip sheet called ''Stableboy Selections." He might have used a proxy to place bets & then classified his winnings as dividends? -
Here is Warren Buffett’s first tax return, filed at age 14
DooDiligence replied to doughishere's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Avg wage in 1944 was $2400 & he was well on his way. Didn't he have some side hustles not reported here? -
Add to due diligence checklist: C-suite boots on the ground?
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Seems in denial re: Sears I absolutely knew he was going to say St. Joe when asked what he'd buy more of, if he could. He may redeem himself (all Flagler like) in NW FL. I love the area (haven't been over towards Destin / Apalachicola in a decade or more but I know the more rural beach communities are super nice!) Seritage could help in his redemption too. I'm not qualified to comment on Fannie & Freddie. Govt asked him - “Why are you the only guy who owns AIG & why do you own so much of it?” Now the world is asking “same Q re: Sears” --- “Just because I’m contrary doesn’t mean I’m right” “People have to agree with me or I look wrong for extended periods, until I look right again" (I rearranged his words but this was the gist...) “Keep things businesslike & be long term oriented.” “I eat my own cooking” Seems like a standup guy who may or may not be wrong sometimes. --- I wonder if BB knows how to relax?
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The problem is that humans and AI are judged using different standards. If human kills someone by accident it's OK'ish since you know it's human what can you do... If AI kills someone by accident, it's clearly broken, nefarious, and should be never used again. At least regulatory agencies subscribe to this fallacy less than regular people. Otherwise we would not have seen cruise control, autopilot or industrial robots at all. ::) Of course you are correct. Humans are not rational, which is just one more reason why they shouldn't be running things. When either a human or an AI makes a mistake you could say that it is in a way broken, but when a human makes a mistake (s)he might learn from that mistake, get better, and never do it again. When an AI makes a mistake, it might learn from the mistake and upload the new info to millions of other similar AIs who all learn from it and never make it again. AIs are superior in every way. Humans should never touch heavy machinery. I'm reading a fascinating book ("The Righteous Mind" by Jonathan Haidt) about how humans react emotionally to just about everything and use reason only later in an attempt to justify their emotional reaction. Reason is just a post hoc tool we use to explain what we already want to think. You could be that old blind guy with the super long soul patch on Kung Fu (.)
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Just buy Fairfax India
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Management looks pretty strong to me & I don't see this as anything other than a vigilant politician doing what he does. This is an important piece of infrastructure & questions regarding ownership should be asked by government leaders (they'd be remiss by NOT doing so.) However: http://www.bengaluruairport.com/ourBusiness/aboutBia.jspx?_afrLoop=519549602842127&_afrWindowMode=0&_adf.ctrl-state=195pv9apuw_329 VP Watsa is on the BOD. Does anyone have evidence of infighting or is this pretty much a hands off advisory dealio?
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Cognitive biases - the hindsight bias
DooDiligence replied to Cigarbutt's topic in General Discussion
I think this one could be the result of laziness or intellectual dishonesty or a combo of both. Hey, a gain is a gain, right? (don't look a gift horse in the mouth.) or Jeez, how could I have possibly seen that coming (just sweep it under the rug & move on.) I have been guilty of both (in the past...) but my feet are held to the fire by COBF & Twitter (mainly COBF because of the disgustingly high level of integrity displayed by members.) -
https://thedroneracingleague.com Just watched races on ESPN2 (yeehaw!)
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Grand Deja Vu? Techs tanked, BRK surged
DooDiligence replied to Valuehalla's topic in Berkshire Hathaway
Perfect description! -
Politico's scream about the artificially low interest rates but who among them is willing to cooperate with the fed to help raise them?
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Inshoring to MidWestern USA? CA & NYC vulnerable?
DooDiligence replied to DTEJD1997's topic in General Discussion
Detroit as an offshoring partner (the whole state seems like a nice crossroads.) -- Holy crap, Jack White started in Detroit... ...and then there's the Motor City Madman Whoa, welcome to my town High energy is all around tonight Whoa, you best beware Theres violence in the air tonight. Huh. Well, Detroit city, she's the place to be This mad dog towns gonna set you free https://patch.com/michigan/detroit/u-s-sen-ted-nugent-wango-tango-your-head-around -- (overall, it sounds like it could be a bargain basement compounder.) (you'll likely end up leaving a valuable real estate portfolio to your descendants!) Wang, dang -
Доверяй, но проверяй "The Russians like to talk in proverbs. It would be nice of you to know a few. You are an actor – you can learn them very quickly."
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Retail Clothiers (a Bombed out Sector?)
DooDiligence replied to DooDiligence's topic in General Discussion
Bump + -
If u liked this then you'll enjoy notorious' blog post about Brian Gaines at Springhouse Capital. It fits with this conversation. I especially liked “I know concentrated investing is out of style today as some high profile investors have had tough times, but it seems more appropriate than ever to wait for great situations and take oversized positions.” I'm actively waiting.
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Cognitive biases, the anchoring bias
DooDiligence replied to Cigarbutt's topic in General Discussion
Anchoring to good salesmanship in earnings webcasts? (PBM & value based pharma delivery for me) http://uglymule.com/images/horse-beating.gif -
Cognitive biases, the anchoring bias
DooDiligence replied to Cigarbutt's topic in General Discussion
What kind of success have you had averaging down? It sounds good in theory, but it takes a lot of conviction. The theory is based on an anchor I set out after making a nice profit from Edwards Lifescience's back in 2013ish. I bought x200 shares & x2 LEAP calls & the thing doubled about a year later. Traded off the calls (LT cap gain) & nearly paid for the shares which split & doubled again (more LT cap gain.) I didn't have this theory at the time & now recognize the anchor regarding LEAPs (thanks?) Started looking for similar opportunities & still haven't found a good one (unless ESRX pays off) Most of the items in my signature are only 1/3 of what I want since they haven't gone down. Novo Nordisk made it to 2/3 but there are no long dated calls. Apple is down to around 1/3 after I sold some (like an idiot.) (all fractions represent what I own of what I'd like to own) ESRX is the overhang on this theory at the moment & may not be a good comp. -
Cognitive biases, the anchoring bias
DooDiligence replied to Cigarbutt's topic in General Discussion
Fixating on metrics is at least an investment thesis. The worst is fixating on your purchase price, which is irrelevant for anybody but yourself. You & LC are super right here! I have a really hard time paying more than my last execution price for an issue. Kind of crazy, "I'm pretty confident that it'll be worth a lot more in a decade but I don't want to pay a premium above the benchmark I've established in my head." Or even worse is that you don't buy it at all, because after you have convinced yourself that you want to own it, you then want to wait until it is back down to the price it was when you first added it to your watchlist. You just can't bring yourself to pay that premium, as if the universe owes you the opportunity to buy it where it was a few months ago when you first started looking at it. Ughh. The human brain sucks sometimes. These are the default modes of thinking unless you consciously override them which takes some effort. Yes that one really sucks. The only question should be whether it's objectively cheap (enough). This is why averaging down is so much easier. I also always feel hesitant adding to positions I initiated years ago which have gone up. I love averaging down too (frequently requires enduring bad news & figuring out if it's relevant.) I like to buy 1/3 & then add another 1/3 & so on until full (if the bad news sounds like noise & it really tanks after I'm full, I'll go out on a long limb with LEAP calls and as long as the idea holds water...?) if it never goes down, it's all good. -
Cognitive biases, the anchoring bias
DooDiligence replied to Cigarbutt's topic in General Discussion
this is so much fun! i cant imagine anyone not being enriched by this thought process (monetarily & personally...) -
Life is Crazy or Ask Scott About Life
DooDiligence replied to ScottHall's topic in General Discussion
F.A.N.M.A.I.L. ----- FAQ's * Are the mentions in your Twitter feed as good as they sound? * Why do many of your Tweets / Tips disappear so quickly? * How do I get one of the t-shirts shown on your website? * Is your logo an acronym for something profound? -
Cognitive biases, the anchoring bias
DooDiligence replied to Cigarbutt's topic in General Discussion
Fixating on metrics is at least an investment thesis. The worst is fixating on your purchase price, which is irrelevant for anybody but yourself. You & LC are super right here! I have a really hard time paying more than my last execution price for an issue. Kind of crazy, "I'm pretty confident that it'll be worth a lot more in a decade but I don't want to pay a premium above the benchmark I've established in my head." -
Cognitive biases, the anchoring bias
DooDiligence replied to Cigarbutt's topic in General Discussion
Among many others, I loved the idea of "A reliable way to make people believe in falsehoods is frequent repetition, because familiarity is not easily distinguished from truth" & believe this can also contribute to anchoring bias (especially if you're in the habit of mumbling things frequently to yourself.)
