ValueMaven

What happened to Ottings 'Within Weeks' comment back in Jan??

Anyone have thoughts on the common at these levels?? Up BIGLY ytd ... but who knows.

Thursday cant come soon enough!!

Agreed ... however, at this point, loading up on a risk-adjusted basis as many pref's as possible makes the most sense.. esp if you are banking on Par + common conversion one could argue this is the clearest time to be a pref or common holder in the life of this trade - regardless of the move higher... sure the prefs at one point were trading below $1, but that was basically 8yrs ago, and when factored in with the political and time value of money aspsect - I am not sure they are any different on a vol adjusted basis. Given recent news - do you think pref's are cheaper TODAY then say in Nov of 2012 (at $1)

It is in the Govt's best interets to maximum value here for tax payers - ie: highest common share price possible; assuming a normal recap Everyone is forgetting that the Gov't also 'owns' a part of FnF 's net income through taxes ... something which they have a right to in perpetuity ...

Moelis is the answer to the test ... they gave the Administration the answers... what we will see is some minor modifications to the blueprint. The next 6-18 months will be very interesting...

how 2 listen to en banc hearing tmrw?

Nice to see the FT pick this up!! https://www.ft.com/content/59a96fc0-1b5d-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21?ftcamp=traffic/partner/feed_headline/us_yahoo/auddev&yptr=yahoo

To many things are lining up here IMHO ... Otto's 'Within weeks' comment is H-U-G-E ... and still makes this situation super-valued, and misunderstood by the market ... We will likely see Moelis 2.0 plan, with some minor modifications to adjust for recent developments in the market etc - but nothing dramatic... I have to give it to Trump right now...China, NK, Taxes, withdrawal from Syria etc - Economy and markets are booming... fixing Fannie and Freddie - with pro-govt policies ...tough to see how he doesnt get re-elected

Still very interesting that the main-stream media has not really picked this up ... Sure, one half-page bloomberg article, and a marketwatch piece yesterday afternoon ... wait till this hits WSJ and other major sources. The Moelis plan will be playing out in front of us ...

u can read previous board posts on this matter - there is everything from $25 par to $100,000 par securities should do well. You can also play the common too which have now blown out wider to the prefs (ie: cheaper) right now...

how so Luke?

This is a very interesting point FairFacts. I need to think about this more...

Welcome to the land of FFH... I cant believe we are investing in a Nigeria bank... I've said this for the past 2 years - but FFH really needs to focus on underwriting improvements and needs to really focus on Allied...this stage of the company's life operational improvements and efficiencies are critical These type of deals to me at least seem very distracting for management...start adding some North American real assets to generate consistent cash flow to offset some of the underwriting volatility that our global insurance business gives us...

Poorly written article, with a lot of assumptions built in...

I really dont get why FFH thinks they need to do something at every chance possible?? Toys R Us?? Are you kidding me? How about focus on improving underwriting standards across the business lines/Allied? Allied has been a big time mistake in the short-term, particularly 1) Given all of the losses 2) The fact that we used UNDERVALUED FFH shares, which were trading right at BV to 3) Acquire a business basically at the top of the reinsurance market (note: most reinsurance stocks outside of XL are down -20% or more)... really wish FFH diversified out of all of these small/crappy/POS businesses and tried to focus on improving underlying earnings... I dont get it

Actually, it looks like this is the article in 2000 https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB950313727142450003 Sincerely, ValueMaven

This could be the article....let me know what other members think! https://www.barrons.com/articles/SB919481704646967500 Sincerely, VM

This is epic... Anyone have the Barron's article? Sincerely, VM

Has anyone actually read all 2,500 pages?! What an incredible source of wisdom! Thank you again.

Yea, that is WAY to risky of a trade for me...I dont care what premiums you are getting upfront. I havent written puts on BRK in the low $100s awhile ago, but I feel like where we are in the market - you really have no idea what is going to happen. I think if a big vol induced sell-off occurs, that writing both near-dated, and long-dated puts near 1.1x - 1.x2 BV makes a ton of sense. Back in Jan of 17 one can sell the January 2019 BRK.B Put at $137.5 strike, and collect a premium of $2.20 (bid price). So, unless you see BRK.B falling ~37% in the next two years, and are happy to own Berkshire at much lower prices…this could be an interesting way to add synthetically to an already established long position. Of course if the stock rallies, you collect the premium and nothing more...that trade was obviously a home-run. Sincerely, VM

BTW: I actually bought a little more of the B's right near the close on Friday. In the low $190s, you are basically paying 1.35x BV....not a bad L.T investment at all IMHO

WOW!! Thanks for sharing

FFH trading right around BV...anyone warming up to the name given the recent/modest selloff? Sincerely, VM

John - before I start reading all 2,500 pages - what exactly am I looking at here? Seems like letters, interviews etc? Sincerely, VM