twacowfca

The healthiest, longest lived, most active into old age, and mostly dementia free people in the world are usually not pure vegetarians. However, animal products including meat, comprise a relatively small part of their diet. They also have a very active lifestyle, and they are quite connected socially to friends and close relatives. The plant based foods they eat are generally unprocessed or lightly processed. The amazing account of these people is in the book, Blue Zones by Dan Beutner, who used to be a feature writer for National Geographic magazine. Gio, you are athletic, and you may not be as obviously affected by a diet with a lot of meat as more sedentary people would be, but you still may have some adverse consequences as time goes by. The results of studies of taking supplements are usually disappointing for reasons that boil down to a U-shaped curve. The sweet spot is about the amount people get with a wholesome, mostly plant based diet. Rats who were given large doses of resveratrol in unreported side studies all died of cancer. I found that to be alarming. Beneficial substances such as B vitamines often have in vivo half lifes that are counted in minutes. that huge slug of a vitamine taken in a pill may become a functional deficiency three hours later as the body overreacts in getting rid of the overdose to maintain homeostasis. However, the smaller amount of that vitamin present in nutritious food will still be available as it is slowly absorbed with the food that contains it. Then, that vitamin is available at just the right time as it is needed for metabolism of the food. Vitamin D is an exception. It is actually a hormone that is stored in the body in an inactive form, even when taken as a supplement as vitamin D 3. There was a neat study recently reported that used an instrumental variable to produce a practical randomization in the population studied. The results showed a definite, strong benefit from obtaining a liberal amount of Vitamin D from whatever source.

+1! I can tell you exactly why I'm fat and overweight. It has nothing to do with sugar, gluten, etc, but the fact that I do not eat a balanced diet and do not get enough exercise. You eat too many calories and don't exercise at least three times a week, your body will slowly, if not over years, become unbalanced and your health will deteriorate. It's as simple as that! Not that sugar is toxic, or whatever smoke people are blowing up your ass these days. Anything in a large enough dose will kill you...even water! Your body is self-regulating and a prime piece of technology...to call it a marvel of engineering is an understatement. Yes, processed foods over the years have increased the amount of sugar and sodium levels in them. But it all still comes down to a balanced diet, watching your total caloric intake and a moderate amount of exercise. Those three things will take care of a whole host of other ills. 15 years ago, scientists and doctors said you shouldn't consume more than a few eggs a week. Now, doctors and scientists are saying that eating a couple of eggs a day isn't an issue. Red meat, coffee, sugar, salt, butter, alcohol, and whatever else go in and out of favour every decade. The real problem isn't sugar or fat, but the sheer size of the portions we get these days. It all started with Big Gulps and Supersized...7/11, Costco and McDonalds should all get the same amount of blame! If you went to a restaurant 20-30 years ago, their dinner plate is today's appetizer plate, and today's dinner plate can hold twice as much food as back then. A Big Mac used to be the biggest burger you could eat when I was a teenager...today it's about the same size as a fully-loaded "L'il Buddy Burger" at Five Guys! That's the little burger at Five Guys...the one children order these days! Even if you order something healthy at a restaurant, the portion size is huge. So while you may be eating a nice salad, the total caloric value of that salad may be well over 1,000 calories. A 7 oz steak, with vegetables and mashed potatoes is healthier and less than 2/3rds of the calories. You could add a Coke and still come in under the salad. And then you have all of the food porn that people love! Inundated with food culture, and the fact that acquiring food gets easier and easier, while lifestyles are more and more sedentary, you can easily see why the world is becoming fat...and it isn't due to the sugar, salt, fat or gluten. Cheers! Sanjeev, You are right about your circumstances and what we should be doing to trim down, but in a strange way we may be unwitting victims of an alien invasion. No, this isn't about spooky invasions of aliens from other planets or graveyards, but about aliens all around us and even inside us. Yikes! That sounds even weirder, but it's true! We all have hundreds of species of bacteria living inside us in our digestive tracts and especially in our colons. These are continuously fighting against each other for living space and dominance. When we eat a diet that is mostly wholesome whole grains, vegetables and fruits, an amazing thing happens after a period of time. Certain types of bacteria will take over most of the space in our colons. These are the ones that like to feed on the fiber and larger molecules of resistant starch that are part of a mostly plant based diet. When that happens, there is an amazing transformation. The products of that beneficial biome release substances that are absorbed through the gut and have great health benefits throughout the body. One of those benefits is to suppress excessive appetite and to predispose us to enjoy the same whole grains, fruits and vegetables those types of bacteria like. If we continue to eat those foods the undesirable competitors of the good bacteria won't have available the different type of food from our diet that they need to mount a counterattack and re conquer the territory. Then, we are in the sweet spot. We now like and enjoy those foods that are good for us as we benefit from the positive feedback loop from the colon with the good bacteria that release beneficial substances throughout our bodies. The diet that once seemed so hard to transition to is now very easy. But wait, there is more! We have lost a lot of extra weight, and it is easy for us to get up out of our chairs and move around. We realize we have begun to enjoy taking walks; so we walk a little farther. That nagging pain we used to have in our feet is getting better as our feet don 't have to bear as much weight. Then, we may do something we haven't done in years: we begin to jog a little bit. And the feedback loop goes around and around as we get more and more healthy.

The exercise program is good. You are eating some good foods. The animal protein has helped you build up your muscles and strength, but should not be necessary to maintain that strength now that you have it if you continue to exercise. Keep up the good work. :) LC, Your eating looks pretty good to me. I don't think, however, that is the optimal amount of protein to gain significant muscle mass / bulk up. But 180 grams per day should do it. This is basically impossible on a normal diet (I can do about 120 grams max on normal food - and that isn't easy) - so you need some protein powder to get you there. Take in a lot of that just before, during, and mainly after a work-out (maybe 50 grams around the workout) and then take the rest some other time during the day. Buy the cleanest stuff possible - usually low calorie to protein ratio, and low sugar. Also just eat like a pig up to 30 minutes after a workout, this is when you can drink a lot of milk, whatever and your body will tend to send that to your muscles rather than to fat. Basically if you are trying to bulk up, a lot of milk right after the workout could be a good idea. If you take in 180 grams per day, and do 2-3 sets of 3-5 repetitions of weight where you bring it down over 5 seconds, and ensure you are using weight which effectively maxes you out after the 3rd or 4th repetition. And also only lift once a week for each set of muscles (your muscles need time to rest so they can grow). I think you'll bulk up pretty fast. There is some good stuff in the Four Hour Body (by Ferris) on this. That book is probably worth skimming - there is a chapter on how to bulk up. Looks like you are already lifting heavy, but Ferris makes the point it 1) has to be really heavy, 2) the muscles need time to rest, and 3) you need a shit load of protein (around 170-210 grams depending on your weight) and also a good amount of calories per day (I forget, but its quite a bit). I strongly disagree unless LC's goal is to have a bulky body builder physique, regardless of long term health consequences. That kind of diet is the way to an early grave. Dr. Adkins (yes he of the high protein Diet Revolution) was 100 pounds overweight with obese fat at the time of his death from a massive heart attack .

The problem is the rice and noodles that are consumed now. There is nothing wrong with Whole grain unhusked rice, or noodles made from wheat straight off the farm in Italy. Indians and Asians have been brainwashed into believing that eating white, processed rice is a sign of prosperity. The same thing happened with North Americans and white bread in the 60s. So I dont think our ancestors had the same diet at all. Your right about activity though. Most evidence suggests that sitting is itself the problem. Has anyone noticed that rock band members seem to be staying healthy and living really long. Maybe its survivorship bias, or maybe bouncing around a stage frenetically, and standing keeps the body healthy. Violinists, symphony conductors and baseball players have among the lowest mortality rates in the developed world . Regular exercise throughout the day with occasional more demanding exercise is crucial for good health. Any amount of exercise is much better than none. Irving Kahn, an outstanding value investor, passed away recently at the age of 110. The circumstances of his death were that the recent, heavy snowstorms in NYC had prevented him from making his regular daily walk across Central Park to his office in the weeks before his death. Having a painful foot problem that prevents mobility is a huge risk factor for sudden death in nursing home patients. Their death rate can be ten times higher than other patients who are able to walk around a little bit. Most people who sit at a desk all day long aren't that bad off, but the same beneficial, exponential effect of exercise is still in play.

The exercise program is good. You are eating some good foods. The animal protein has helped you build up your muscles and strength, but should not be necessary to maintain that strength now that you have it if you continue to exercise. Keep up the good work. :)

Try brown rice, millet, buck wheat (Kasha), steel cut oats or rolled oats (not precooked instant oats), potatoes, sweet potatoes, winter squash, beans, lentils etc. I eat them ad libitum (with lots of veggies and some fruit) every day and don't gain any weight - actually I lost over 40 pounds over the first year after switching to a healthy diet. I am never hungry, have excellent lab tests and feel so much better than on a conventional diet, can't imagine going back. maxthetrade is spot on. My 10,000+ hours of research over my adult lifetime overwhelmingly supports the idea that getting the great majority of calories from this type of diet is optimal for the health of adults.

Yes, I read almost all the popular diet books. The problem with their concepts is that observations are usually based on what happens in a population with a lifestyle and diet that is very different than what our ancestors experienced only a few generations ago. Imagine how erroneous our ideas about mental health would be if those thoughts were formulated by experiences and interventions among the population of an insane asylum. We might conclude that we could all benefit by taking antipsychotic drugs. If one sits all day and eats whole grain bagels made with fine flour with twenty times as much gluten as primative cultivars of wheat had, that would not be healthy. The benefits of eating whole grains are not equivalent to eating many so called whole grain products.

I have little to no insight on this topic other than to say that we should all probably be eating less sugar. In Jacobi-esque fashion, we could ask ourselves the question of "Should we be eating MORE sugar?" and then move backwards. Having spent more than a few years studying healthy eating, observing the healthiest people on the planet and publishing books on those observations, the best advice is simple: eat whole grains, fruits and vegetables. Repeat. The more of these you eat, the better your health, the trimmer your body, the clearer your mind and the longer your disease free enjoyable life will be. Make a list of foods you like in these categories and start eating more of them. They will fill you up, and you will find yourself consuming less of other things. As you intentionally eat increasingly more whole grains, vegetables and fruits, your enjoyment of them will grow. The results of the 20 potatoes a day diet are not surprising. The English noticed in the mid 1800's how much healthier poor Irish immigrants were than the more affluent English, and how tall and beautiful the Irish women were. The Irish seemed to eat nothing but inexpensive potatoes. As an experiment, Two Englishmen volunteered to eat nothing but potatoes for six months. Afterwards, they were examined by medical doctors and determined to be in perfect health. They had neither lost nor gained weight. (That was in an era when most people, who had an active lifestyle, were not overweight) However, there was a big problem in coming off the diet: The subjects had not only adapted to the all potatoes diet, but strongly preferred it. They no longer craved or missed any of the other food they gave up!

Why do you say that? You like his confidence, or you think what he's saying makes sense? Because I don't think it does. Greece is refusing to negotiate with the troika. http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/01/31/us-greece-politics-idUSKBN0L31TB20150131 There is not much time. If they don't find a lender by this summer, they will default. Varoufakis is an expert in game theory. :)

Think of the strike as what you have the option to pay to get the deliverable (usually 100 shares of the stock). So, pre-spinoff, by owning 1 contract of the $70 strike calls you have the option to pay $7000 (there's a 100 multiplier) to buy 100 shares of EBAY. If EBAY spins off 1 share of PAYPAL for each share of EBAY, the deliverable of the options contract will be adjusted to represent 100 shares of EBAY -plus- 100 shares of PAYPAL. So, you would have the option to pay $7000 to purchase 100 shares of EBAY and 100 shares of PAYPAL. Within a day or so, they will then list a new series of options contracts that will just represent 100 shares of EBAY. At this point, if a person wanted to buy options on just pure (post spinoff) EBAY they would be able to do so. But the old series of options sticks around, so there will likely exist two EBAY $70 2017 calls - the old ones (100 EBAY + 100 PAYPAL) and the new ones (100 EBAY). It will be important to make sure you are trading the right ones if you want to do new trades. Thank you both for your contributions. I guess the OCC (Options Clearing Corporation) to set the strike for the Ebay's new options will be taken into account: - or the opening trading price of the shares of Ebay as independent entity (after split). - or the closing price of the first day as a independent Ebay. I will consult with the OCC to see if I can still clarify a little bit more this things. I'll keep you informed, By the way, according to your nick (pocoapoco) I think you're from a Spanish-speaking country. Is that so? I'm from Spain. Pocoapoco, compadre compreme un coco. :)

http://www.wsj.com/articles/meet-warren-buffetts-wannabes-the-brown-buffett-and-oracle-of-san-quentin-1424997098 Quote in the Article: Prem Watsa, the chairman and chief executive of Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd. , a Toronto company that owns insurers, restaurants and other businesses run in a decentralized, Berkshire-like style, is known as the “Warren Buffett of Canada.” “There’s only one Buffett, and he’s in Omaha,” says Mr. Watsa, shying away from the comparison. Yet he built Fairfax, a word play on “fair and friendly acquisitions,” into one of Canada’s largest companies through acquisitions, just like Mr. Buffett, whose big takeovers include railroad BNSF in 2010. Mr. Watsa, 64, says he first learned about Mr. Buffett’s way of doing things in the mid-1980s when a friend explained the concept of “float” in insurance. Berkshire’s chairman used float, or money collected from insurance customers as premiums that don’t have to be paid out until later, to fund Berkshire’s expansion. Like his idol, Mr. Watsa writes a shareholder letter used as a pulpit to weigh in on global financial issues and lure investors to the annual meeting. Messrs. Buffett and Watsa each named their son after legendary value investor Benjamin Graham.

Some time ago, I shorted a bunch of absurdly overpriced Canadian warrants that were way out of the money and set to expire in a few months. That was similar to shorting common stock in bankruptcy that will likely be extinguished. When those warrants were within three weeks of expiration, I get a call from my Canadian broker telling me that I have to buy back the expiring warrants I had shorted. That was disagreeable, although I made twenty or thirty percent on the trade, because I had mentally put my prospective 100% gains in the bank. Has anyone had a similar experience? Was there any way I could have avoided having to cover the short position in those expiring warrants?

Deflation hedges pulled in 116.4M gain in the 4th quarter for a total of +17.7M for the year. This means that the swaps were literally up some 95% in fair market value just in the fourth quarter alone on the decline in oil. Many are expecting headline deflation in 2015 due to the slowing of economies and cheaper oil working it's way through the supply system - we don't need much to get us to breakeven on these swaps. 1-2 years of negative headline inflation in the CPI could result in a nice payday of a few hundred million. As a reminder, every 1% beyond the 2.45% needed to breakeven in the US would result in a net gain of 527M. I wouldn't be surprised to see them continue building these positions though - they've expanded them aggressively over the past few years at prices more attractive than the original position was purchased at. 2010 - 34.2B in notional (cost 302M) 2011 - 46.5B in notional (cost 421M) 2012 - 48.4B in notional (cost 454M) 2013 - 82.9B in notional (cost 546M) 2014 - 111.8B in notional (cost 655.4M) From the original position in 2010, Watsa has committed 116% more capital to increase the exposure by 226% AND adjust the strike price upwards. Averaging down seems to have worked out well. I'm thinking these might actually pay in the next year or two. French consumer prices fall 1.1% MoM and 0.4% YoY. France is the country closest to inflation breakeven for Fairfax though it's only 2.75B in notional so it won't be a game changer. Realize that Prem explained that these CPI type derivatives don 't have to actually be in the money to break even. They 're like options. When the underlying goes down, the implied volatility goes up, sometimes a lot!

here's My view as the OP if that means anything. The current market value of the preferred far exceeds my original speculation for 10 times the $0.50 or so paid in the first round of our trading in or out of those issues. Anchoring on that reference price is irrelevant to the current valuation. What's different now is that part of the thesis has come true; Fanny and Fred have earned themselves out of the deep hole, thanks to the easiest money ever, but those earnings have been expropriated. It's entirely possible that the expropriation may eventually be determined to be legal, thanks to the enabling legislation that was passed. However, I think shareholders still have the advantage in the Court of claims, having suffered an unjust taking despite the enabling legislation. If the case eventually works through the court of claims to a positive ruling, the outcome is likely to disappoint, because there are multiple ways to determine the value of the claim. With the US holding 80% of the preferred and being most senior, plus holding a ton of warrants at a nominal strike price, the math indicates only a small percentage recovery for the rest of the preferred, not to mention the common, after many years of litigation. That leaves the most likely outcome in my opinion : a settlement heavily influenced by politics. The present administration will be replaced after the election next year. They would have an unbelievable task to spin a settlement that made public preferred shareholders whole and even more unbelievable spin if common shareholders got a nice pot. Yet that could happen if senior officials are forced to give depositions before the election. The US court of claims is notorious for lengthy delays in discovery. How likely is it that key administration officials will be deposed before the election ?

The Fed's QE3 Taper has officially ended, but what does that look like on the assets being held by the Federal Reserve and, more specifically, the metric most influenced by the asset-buying program - WSBASE? Graphs showing the trend of WSBASE over the previous 18 months or so, WSBASE since 2009 and then as screenshot of the Bloomberg CERBTTAL index since 2009 tracking weekly Federal Reserve Assets. WS_Base_02.11.2015b.pdf 02.11.2015_SPX_vx_Fed_Total_Assets.pdf WS_Base_02.11.2015.pdf

WSBASE has declined 8.2% over the last eight weeks since QE 3 ended mid October this Year. Compare to the 9.1% decline in WSBASE that began 2/24/2010 after the end of QE1 and continued for 10 weeks. That pull back preceded the 17% selloff in S&P 500 by eight weeks. Red sky at night, sailor's delight. Red sky in morning, sailor take warning. Note: The recent, sharp downtrend in WSBASE should be put in perspective. The current bull market has run much longer now than in 2010, and positive expectations are greater now. Therefore, the recent decline may not have the same immediate effect as in first half 2010. Also, December is by far the best month to buy on the dips after a spike in volatility like the one this past week. The intelligent way to play this may be to buy a strangle, to go long slightly out of the money index puts and calls, with a strike price beyond the near dated month. Then, a substantial move up or down should pay off nicely, but that strategy would lose money if the current US indices' prices stayed in range bound till option expiration. A range bound market after the recent volatility in the WSBASE and the market indices seems less likely to me than a substantial move up or down. WSBASE_09.2009-07.2010.pdf

According to Warren, acquisitions make sense for Mid American at prices that don't make sense for pure utility holding companies. It seems that utilities often have so many tax breaks that they don't have enough profits to offset against the breaks. Therefore, there is no value in the tax breaks that come with the acquisition of another utility co. However, BRK has other profitable assets in Mid. American than merely the utilities they own. Therefore, extra tax breaks from Mid American's acquisitions of utility companies can be put to use by BRK, but not by other utility companies.

Still have 2 Rooms available. We will need to let Marriott know by tomorrow if you are interested in one of these rooms. They are able to transfer the rooms. Message me if you are interested. TWACOWFCA

Fellow Boardmembers, Due to unforeseen circumstances, we have 3 rooms for Friday and Saturday night that we will not be using at the Omaha Marriott Regency Circle Hotel which is directly across from Borsheims where many events are held. I know that this is very late notice, but wanted to give board members an opportunity for the rooms before we make them available to others. The cost would be $750 for each room. If you are interested send me a message. Thanks, TWACOWFCA

Myth, What do you and others who know a good deal about what goes on in the oil patch think about the new developments at Petrobank? They appear to have all but thrown in the towel on their THAI process and injected steam down into their wells. Presto! They are now producing 650 Bbls of oil per day and 1700 Bbls of liquids plus they are merging with Touchstone 60% 40% with Petrobank getting the majority of stock after the merger. Touchstone is producing about 1600 Bbls of oil per day in Trinidad with the prospect of bringing in new wells at a cost of about $25,000/barrel per day of production. Plus, Petrobank still has about half the cash pile it started with a year and four months ago before wasting almost half it's cash on THAI, plus no debt.

Hmmm, Global warming=more snow Extensive global warming=ice age ??? Seriously, The latest (last few thousand years) global warming period is now getting long in the tooth. We all know how fractal phenomena eventually reverse with a vengeance in a relatively short period of time. The latest few Ice Ages were all preceded by periods of global warming, more or less in a cycle matching the 22,000 year cycle of the wobble of the earth about its axis, leading to differential heating from the sun 's radiation and volatility of climate change as the angle of the earth's axis to the sun measured at a particular point in its orbit changes. I think man has contributed a lot to global warming in the last few thousand years. If it were not for that, we should already be well into a new Ice Age, according to the period of past cycles.

Hmmm, Global warming=more snow Extensive global warming=ice age ???

Jiro Dreams of Sushi received one of the top awards presented at the Movieguide Gala in Hollywood this year that we attended. It's awesome, definitely a movie to be watched over and over again. :)

On the other hand, if you want to be amazingly successful eventually, perhaps you should follow the path of one who drifted through college, doing as little of the required work as possible, questioning everything, not always following the rules, so that one of his professors called him: "that lazy dog", despite his obvious intelligence. He was not able to get a job in his chosen field for a number of years after graduating, after many attempts. Yet, strangely, he became one of the most successful people of all time. Who was that man? Albert Einstein :)

Yes. Without embellishment, 500 hours is way on the low side over time for me when unusual value resides in a business, sometimes by a degree of magnitude for a very interesting company. :) What would a ballpark estimate be for you for an insurance company? And does your industry expertise play into that number if you start a looking at a new company? Actually, Some companies don't take a lot of time to understand if one has a good grasp of the drivers of value, For example, Leucadia. They have a great record of spotting a bargain that gives them a margin of safety. Their new CEO not only understands this, but has been one of their feeders over the years. Now that he's running the show, guess who's going to get first pickings of what their investment banking side sniffs out. They've got a young CEO who's been there done that, highly ethical, shareholder focused, plus still guidance from one of the founders. Oh, by the way, they're still selling for about book value. That doesn't take a lot of analysis. Sometimes lots of extra study might not improve understanding. On the other hand, when I like and own a company, I enjoy following them closely. :) the extra study does stiffen the backbone to stay with a good company if they hit a rough patch or to decline to flip a company merely because their share price went up The extra study also greatly helps understand when to sell an otherwise good company that is a major position. For example, several years ago we had a large position in a company that was in Cpt 11 much like Ted did at the same time with WR Grace. We sold out some as it approached fair value and the remainder as it passed fair value when it came out of Cpt 11. Our edge was the understanding of the company and the industry and the legal environment that we gained after long study showed that a great company in a cyclical industry was headed for a big recession if not a train wreck. It was ironic that a value investor known for less in depth analysis started buying the stock in a very public way after we had sold out 99% of our position. I complimented him in a public public forum for realizing that they were a great company, but pointed out that they were in a cyclical industry. I left unstated the obvious (to me after long study) fact that they were at the top of the cycle. A year later, we bought that company back during the 2008 crash for 3% of the price of the stock at its peak two years earlier, again because we had gained deep understanding of the company, the industry and the dynamics of ownership and support suggesting they would survive the recession. That confidence to act appropriately in changing circumstances was gained only with long study. :) A similar deep understanding after long study has guided our very profitable round trips in the Fannie and Freddie preferreds in the last few years. :) It sounds like you're a fan of LUK. Just curious on your list of ideas where does LUK rank? Thanks It's our #4 holding now, and that's about where it ranks. However, they should shine if the market rolls over, and they should be able to put their cash to work as bargains appear in various asset classes.