Dazel

Not great investments for sure but Resolute, Blackberry, and Eurobank were all left for dead...very possible to recoup a couple of Billion in book value from their bottoms and possibly more depending on how we go from here.

They will write books about what Moynihan did and is doing at Bank of America.

Buy the shares Prem Buy them hand over fist lets see Fairfax get aggressive......show us how undervalued you think Fairfax is. It’s the only deal in the market.

Net Net. You are correct and that is why I would like to see a big chunk of the float bought back...the holding company should have over $2.5b in cash. 2018 the contrarians will win.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/with-29-growth-indian-mkts-end-2017-with-a-bang/articleshow/62301071.cms

Resolute has quietly tripled....as well. I am betting (large) on Fairfax redemption in 2018...Prem you have talked the talk now walk the walk please! The hold co is now loaded with cash lets see the share count come down substantially in 2018! I will call FFH $1000 this year. Cheers and Happy New year to all! Dazel

Uccmal, I know you made a fortune on Fairfax over the years and you were instrumental on this board. Congrats and thanks for your effort! My only point is that many are downplaying what has been done at Fairfax I was certainly not calling you out. Cheers. Dazel

Uccmal, You should probably check your numbers....the bottom in late 2007 was $195...which carried into 2008...for a low of $211....of note the low of 2006 was $100.... In 2008 Fairfax hit $390....depending where you were in those numbers you had some of the greatest outperformance over the market in history. Most stocks were down 50 to 70% and the financial stocks that Fairfax competes against were down 80 to 90%! While I agree Fairfax fell asleep at the wheel for awhile in 2010 to 2015 that outperformance made some of us very wealthy. Not just because of the huge returns from Fairfax but I was able to buy everything for 20 cents on the dollar in 2008-2009 because I was flush with a 50% return. My old buddy Ericopoly made many multiples of that by using options. Can’t let it slip by that Fairfax biggest win was not biblical it was. It’s the greatest investment I have ever made comparably thanks to the Fairfax team. My personal account was up 100% in 2008. Fairfax strategy this time is large cash reserves as Buffett is doing...and deflation hedges that may be forgotten for now but certainly will hedge a deflationary scenario if it were to happen. Have you seen the worlds debt? Or buy Bitcoin LOL. I don’t see anyone preparing for debt deflation so I do not have anyone in my sights to hedge...other than Fairfax and cash. Realistically in our current scenario we would likely see inflation pick up to cause debt deflation afterwards...which is likely why the yield curve is flat and European rates are still very much negative! Dazel.

I can’t in good conscience not comment on the $830m third quarter underwriting loss...as I posted on my perception of what their losses may amount to from the hurricanes. I realize most posters here could care less....However, I need to acknowledge the Brutal underwriting at Allied and Brit. 182 and 158 combined ratios!! These losses are above what I expected. Fairfax legacy insurance operations combined ratios were extremely solid as I surmised in my posts are what I expected. Odyssey Re-126 Crum&Forester-103 Zenith-84 Other-130

Chrispy congrats-Fairfax Real Estate investing record is fabulous SD-while always a pleasure...I can’t eat Block Chain Partner 24- I get it no one wants stagnant money in a bull market....until they do! I saw the 2000 and 2008 debacles first hand...people are once again going to get killed....no one is counting. My reasons for returning to this forum are clear. Fairfax story had to be told I owed it to them and for the past wonderful people on this board. I did my part...and anyone’s that listened did well in a short period of time...what happens over the next 6 months or year I don’t know...Fairfax was really cheap and hated. I am not sure where it is in that metric now it’s tough for rational investors to buy after Fairfax’s rise that’s for everyone else to figure out. And really I don’t see many investors these days!! I will leave you all with this as it is how I feel...Good Bye for now and Good luck! “Essentially, I am out of step with current conditions. On one point however, I am clear. I will not abandon a previous approach whose logic I understand (although I find it difficult to apply) even though it may mean foregoing large and apparently easy profits to embrace an approach which I don’t fully understand, I have not practiced successfully and which, possibly could lead to substantial permanent loss of capital.” Warren Buffett 1969

I guess we can assume that the crickets on this thread are because one may feel they missed an easy tap in from an old trusted friend in Prem and Fairfax. Maybe now that this popped so much some may call it a momo stock and follow or comment? OR maybe if they did a coin offering for a new cryptocurrency they may get some attention?!!! Here is the name of the new currency VIIND..."value investing is not dead"! Yes I am kidding...in stupid stock market somethings make sense! Have a good weekend Dazel

Fairfax Financial and Fairfax India have a very very big advantage in India that you are not going to find on the balance sheet and something that Charlie Munger has mentioned many times about Mr. Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway. Fairfax and Prem Watsa are the Berkshire of India. The Icici-Lombard company is an example of a great company that was built from scratch almost 20 years ago. It's a template so to speak. Prem has sat on the boards of major Indian corporations for many years and Fairfax investing record in India is unparrlleled. As you have seen with Fairfax india and Thomas Cook (a home run for Fairfax Financial)...they are going to get the best deals because they not only have deep pockets they have the trust behind them. That's something that Berkshire has prospered from greatly over the years and Fairfax and all of its subsidiaries will do the same in India. Besides Prem's respect in India he has a seasoned and prolific investing and management team in India that has been there for 20 years. It's a huge head start and will be a major driver of growth over the next decade...you can't buy trust you have to earn it...unless you piggy back on Fairfax in India...Warren Buffett in the U.s! If someone can show me another investment vehicle in India that has this advantage I will listen and probably follow...normally you could just buy what they have...the problem is that the biggest investment gains that Fairfax will make will be from private purchases that normal investors will not have access to (Buffett has this too) and building another Indian insurance powerhouse organically.

"A man who carries a cat by the tail learns something he can learn in no other way" Mark Twain "Investing is not supposed to easy"..."Anyone that finds it easy is stupid" Charlie Munger Good luck in life Whitney Tilson congratulations for taking a shot at your dream and experiencing the ups and downs that make us men. I have no doubt that you will sleep well and I have no doubt that the wisdom you pass on will be a most precious gift to those that listen. As for all the arm chair quarterbacks and bullshit luck speculators that think you know what you are doing...be warned. You don't. Top of the Market? Dazel.

As an aside...Blackberry had good results yesterday....$1.9b cash. Just saying...sell Qnx, build up radar and sell it...left the security business which is the diamond in the rough and provide security for both of the businesses they sell. Like the First Capital deal at Fairfax. Disclosure: I own Blackberry small position...big Fairfax position.

Hard market? Certainly Berkshire would make a killing....but Fairfax with 41% investment portfolio in cash and the holding company stuffed with cash and capital..on per share basis Fairfax wins. We will see who was swimming naked looks like the insurance claim tide may have gone out. From what I have read it looks like Fairfax went conservative across the board as insurance rates low for Cat's....the majority of their insurance is in other areas....Berkshire exited most of the business Buffett has explained...

https://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/insurance/benefits-merging-fairfax-allied-world-far-outweigh-overlap-reinsurance-fairfax-insurance-coo-1004105613/ Fairfax insurance is not very understood by the market as the company has been looked at as hedge fund over the years...Odyseey Re is 26th and Allied world is 41st biggest writers of reinsurance in the world in 2016 and Brit writes 25% of its business in reinsurance and the other 75% is primary insurance. Odyssey Re (see Fairfax 2017 posts) bought reinsurance on their reinsurance in north America according to their annual report and would have little impact from small cat's and they also ended a large reinsurance contract for Florida in June of 2015 ... These are not small Cat's of course and the losses could be very large at Fairfax but not in the context of Fairfax size. Fairfax owns 67% of Allied World as well I believe with options to buy it all over the next 5 years. As for the industry if this creates a hard market...Fairfax will have a large amount of capital with insurance sales they just made so not only will they not have to raise capital they will be in position to take advantage of the hard market if happens. If that's the case its a back the truck up borrow money from whoever will give to you type investment! fingers crossed!

https://www.canadianunderwriter.ca/insurance/benefits-merging-fairfax-allied-world-far-outweigh-overlap-reinsurance-fairfax-insurance-coo-1004105613/ Fairfax insurance is not very understood by the market as the company has been looked at as hedge fund over the years...Odyseey Re is 26th and Allied world is 41st biggest writers of reinsurance in the world in 2016 and Brit writes 25% of its business in reinsurance and the other 75% is primary insurance. Odyssey Re (see Fairfax 2017 posts) bought reinsurance on their reinsurance in north America according to their annual report and would have little impact from small cat's and they also ended a large reinsurance contract for Florida in June of 2015 ... These are not small Cat's of course and the losses could be very large at Fairfax but not in the context of Fairfax size. Fairfax owns 67% of Allied World as well I believe with options to buy it all over the next 5 years. As for the industry if this creates a hard market...Fairfax will have a large amount of capital with insurance sales they just made so not only will they not have to raise capital they will be in position to take advantage of the hard market if happens. If that's the case its a back the truck up borrow money from whoever will give to you type investment! fingers crossed!

Here is why Brian Bradstreet is the best bond manager in the world...the numbers are unbelievable and these returns do not include the credit default swap gains of approx. $2b which were his creation. I am not sure if the Muni bond windfall from Nov 2008 are included as they were non taxable. Brian will handle the majority of the $40b investment portfolio. The returns for Fairfax on this $40b is the "rocket fuel" as Buffett calls it...the market is doubting Prem's ability as the investment performance over the last number of years has been horrible as any here have mentioned....they are missing what Brian has done! Prem and co. will come back in a big way in the investment portfolio they continue to prove that they are excellent company builders. 5 years 10 years 15 years Fairfax Taxable bonds 6.0% 9.6% 10.3% Merrill Lynch U.S. corporate (1-10 year) bond index 3.8% 4.9% 5.1%

Txvester... You are correct....long day today...thx.

One more quick point...the $2b in after tax cap gains from their insurance companies sales are a happening now. They got three times book value in the worst hurricane season ever? That's what I mean by diversity. Fairfax is a different company than most remember. They will be blue chip like Berkshire...

A.Hamilton...your point is well taken of course. Let's see how well they were underwriting...at the reinsurance level. And please bring on a hard market!

Of course....they could have a billion dollar pre tax loss (I guess it to be a third of that) from these events and still be close to record earnings...they have added $2b in after tax capital gains in the last 6 months.... To be honest. I hope the insurance industry losses are massive....and we lose a lot. I am more interested in a hard insurance market because of their large diversified insurance footprint with $15b in premiums then their large capital gains this year. It's a different company then the one most on this board remember... That is my point... Long leaf said the same thing...

Does anyone know what the addition of the $450m in marketable shares was involved in the sale? That and the IPO value and subsequent 9.9% holdings jump has taken the proceeds well above what I thought they would be. I would also suspect they will sell off the remaining $450m worth of shares at these prices.

LOL. No one is paying attention...and my numbers were are very light on the ICICI-Lombard sales. Fairfax has received $1.4b worth of shares sales and still hold 9.9% with the companies value now at $4.5b!!! That values the sales and holding at almost $2b!!!!! We will have a record year of earnings...Prem and co. Have lost their touch still? More importantly of course is that the company is set up for great operating earnings over the next decade. Yawn. http://www.fairfax.ca/news/press-releases/press-release-details/2017/Fairfax-Sells-Shares-of-ICICI-Lombard/default.aspx

FFHWatcher you are correct UK When the shares were issued Fairfax and its investors hedging and it is hated because of this drop and a few bad investments. It's a different company now and the holding company will have $2.5b in cash... Fairfax is become a large specialty insurer more like Markel although they will have losses from the hurricanes. If the industry event is big enough they will be able to increase their premiums which will more than make up for the losses. They have $15b in premiums now...in hard market they could could write $25b. How cheap would that make it? If interest rates rise as they expect their now $40b investment portfolio probably benefit on a per share basis more than any other company in the world. (Because Brian Bradstreet is the best bond investor around)...and hopefully they took my advice and bought a billion worth of Citigroup and B of A like said they should! The shares are cheap now that's why Prem will buy hand and fist as would I.