dyow

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Chou+funds+returns incredible, internet wizard Just curious what dyow means? Do Your Own Work I know what it means. I just find it ironic it was so hard to put 3 words into Google. It was easier to ask someone else the question and await an answer. Not doing your own work. I was busy looking at a stock, an ugly one, hence the delay in replying. For shhughes1116 and augustabound, I will post my thesis for at least one of two stocks. I have two ideas that are each worth about 75% to 150% more than current price with near term catalysts (i have researched these stocks for very closely, months worth of full time research each, i over do it i know). I know i can make money for other board members. But i won't post until either of you post a thesis and help other members. I don't think it is fair that i put that much work into researching while others on the forum add no value. You implied i don't do my own work, which in turn implies you guys do your own work............let's go thesis for thesis. and we can let the board members decide who actually does work.

For trump supporters, you are really fighting a losing a battle. Obama got elected bc you had a crazy hillbilly from the sticks (and ex coke head) who decided to invade countries just because he felt like it. The love for obama came from hatred towards bush (and his hillbilly followers). The love for trump came from hatred towards obama (and his tree hugger followers). Your next president will probably be someone that is the opposite of Chump, maybe a lesbian minority or something along those lines, which is gonna be payback. and the cycle will continue. Why does everything have to be so extreme with you guys? Honestly, long-term, it's not looking good for you guys in the US. If you use a stock analogy US is kinda like Sears.

I wasn't trying to insult you. OK....I shouldn't have asked that question.....and yes i should have googled it. Do your own work is a reminder to myself, and i did not do my own work.

http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Chou+funds+returns incredible, internet wizard

After big concentrated investments in RFP, SD, BBRY, and SHLD, I can't believe he's still in business. Yeah, the article calls him one of the "savviest value investors" in the world. That is a pretty big claim.

I keep hearing about this guy but what are his historical returns?

TS I usually don't have a specific news feed i go to, if i am researching a company ill start with google and go from there.

Heyyyyyy wait just a minute; you said Dow 30,000!?! He's trying to build-in plausible deniability. If it reaches 30K, he was right, but if it doesn't then the "3" was clearly a typo. Nah. I really don't care much if i am right or wrong on this call. i have no ego, here is proof: i gambled on zinc and semi and lost some money in 2015. It was speculation and i was very wrong. Sometimes you are wrong. Life goes on.

Let us know what your are drinking or inhaling, I want to get some of the same stuff too. He is misunderstood, like all true artists, or arteest if you will, i see exactly what he is saying.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/12/21/trump-to-name-icahn-as-special-adviser-on-regulatory-overhaul-report.html Trump should just make Icahn "secretary of making stocks go higher". I am optimistic about my DOW 20K call.....crossing my fingers.

^^^ I was hoping everyone would jump on this thread and be like yeah dyow great points there i agree with you. I didn't get that so, again, i am downgrading my call to DOW 20K instead by 2017-2018. I change my calls based on the mood of my fellow investors (like wall street analysts who downgrade a stock after a 50% drop or upgrade after a 50% run up). But i do wonder if all this is actually a contrarian indicator (COBF high post count means the opposite is gonna happen). This thread would only be 1 page if it wasn't for my half assed posts, which is half the thread. I do wonder........

I look at value investing as an art. Looking at the market is like looking at messed up art. It is confusing if you look at it superficially. But instead of looking at the picture right side up, you need to turn the picture upside down, then you understand it for what it is and see it in its true form. and you see its real beauty. As far as what other people consider art...honestly i look at that stuff and think wtf is this. Most artists were hermits/lonely/disturbed people who nobody paid attention to when they were alive. Then after they die young from depression or drug abuse, they become special and people attach all these meanings to the work they did and their paintings sell for millions. Ask someone who likes art about a specific art piece and why they like it...their response will be borderline bi-polar and something like "oh when i look at this i see this this but i also see that and it makes me feel like this but it also makes me feel like that". C'mon now, you don't need art you need medication. The worst part is these same people who worship these artists would never have paid attention to these people when they were alive. Value investing is true art (or inventions like cars, planes etc the people who invented these things were bad ass artists).......and if you get the art right you get paid....real artists get paid when they are alive. I would short the whole art market if i could.

Even more useful, please also tell what will be the LOWEST point the DOW will reach before starting its final ascent towards that inevitable 30K. I will be buying then. :P lol. This is my worst post ever. I apologize, i drank last night, didn't sleep well. Ill downgrade my call to Dow 20K. Hold cash don't trust the dips.

lol u baited into giving a year...which i shouldn't do bc that takes away from my point..like picasso said.....all i am saying is there are strong forces behind the economy and the market that could push it much higher/quicker than people expect. I could be very wrong....if i am i will personally bump this thread.

What does Bill McBride say about the demographic shift from the first of the baby boomers turning 70 this year? That means the first of the RMDs coming from IRAs in the first quarter of every year for the next few years (structural selling pressure) and that the wave of boomers retiring is growing suggesting there may downsizing and additional housing capacity that we don't yet see. I thought it wasn't until 2020ish the next gen was expected to be hitting their stride at peak earnings and millennials hitting mid 30s to offset that? Uh oh! I got myself into a sticky situation with this post, i usually don't like discussing economics, i am pretty bad at it. Here is how i look at it...every point above will have a counter argument, and a counter counter argument. I try to step back and look at it from a big picture perspective. And from a big picture perspective the economy should keep improving, and stocks should continue to do well. If there is structural selling, and i am not so sure there will be anything more significant than we have seen in the past, it should not derail stocks from going higher........Selling by retail investors is historically a contrarian indicator. Housing will continue to roll on bc of pop growth and pent up demand, you can bet your bottom dollar that....

A value investor should never even attempt to guess where the stock market is headed. It is stupid and goes against the principle of value of investing. That said i am "calling" DOW 30K because: - Housing is the economy. Housing starts have not fully recovered from the severe crash of 2008. There is pent up demand from household formation. Housing has several years left to run= economy has several years to run. - Demographics, in the next few years, there will be an influx of prime working age folk entering the US labor force, and this will boost the economy (Bill McBride from calculated risk talks about this, he is the only the economist worth listening to - he actually helped me make quite a bit of money, this guys calls on the economy have been dead on for as long as he has been blogging - he is not a emotional confused economist - he just looks at the right numbers, he is efficient and provides cold hard facts - if he says a recession is coming you should SELL all your stocks, your house...your wife etc.). - Trump, if you listen to what some of his advisors have said and who he has put in power, it is almost like Trump's main goal for his term is to make stocks go much higher (I heard on an interview that Trump let Icahn interview and choose the new EPA boss, Icahn's only goal was to find someone to change regulations so his oil refiner stock (CVI) would go up, and it has). - The crash of 2000 and 2008 warped people's minds. You basically have a generation of potential investors thinking these are normal events. They happen, but they happen when you don't expect it. Our brains seek out patterns. If we see something happen happen twice our brains are automatically put on alert and we expect to see it again. We can't help ourselves, i mean at the end of the day we are merely a bunch of hairless baboons, so it is understandable. A hated market is a good market to buy and i don't see this changing anytime soon, too many people are still scarred from the last 2 crashes. - If the bond bull market is indeed over, more money will flow into stocks. - Banks have not been leading to consumers and this will change, and this will have a snowball effect. More lending > more spending > more income and revenue > more borrowing and lending. If you take a look at the big banks' loan loss provisions in the last several it has been at historical lows bc they are only lending to the most credit worthy, bc of regulation and low interest rates....but the funny thing is the banking business model is not meant to work like this...they are meant to take on risky loans and take losses. I would expect banks to go back toward a more normalized environment going forward. I don't want stocks to go higher, REAL VALUE INVESTORS make money when stocks go down. I still get goosebumps from thinking about the energy crash we had in early 2016. That was a beautiful thing. That crash changed my life. I went from ashy to classy. I am going to throw in my obligatory insult (which i do in almost every post, maybe bc i am bad person, or maybe i am honest to a fault, or maybe i got personal problems i should address, who knows that is for y'all to decide)..most of you on this board will probably be happy if stocks go much higher.....bc most of you are Anyhoo, if stocks drop big i will once again become a value investor, but in the meantime I will act like a VALUE PRETENDER and buy EVERY DIP.

What lessthaniv said. Interest income related to the business' day-to-day operations, anything earned on working capital, would go under cf from operations. Any interest income on excess cash is considered passive, and outside the normal course of operations, and should not be included in cf from ops. Including it in cf from operations is misleading. Think about it, you have a million bucks, you start a new corp, invest the million in bonds, and your business could be losing money but you could still show positive CF from operations. And you could scam newbies on COBF to invest in your "profitable" company and take that money to feed your secret crack addiction.... The accounting rules are there to protect you.....next time you see an accountant shake their hand TS.

You sell when your stock gets near instrinsic value....and you can't use the intrinsic value you used when you initially purchased the stock. You have to put the intrinsic value into context depending on any changes in the company, industry cycles, interest rates, the general economy etc. You sell when you get to intrinsic value because you have to stick to your process. You can't pick tops. It's all about the process. If you stray from the process, you will stray again, and again, and slowly but surely you will become a speculator. Some speculation is OK, but speculating when you think you are investing is how you lose your life savings. that said, if you have a big unrealized gain in a stock, and you think it is close to intrinsic value but are scared it will go higher after you sell you can sell the stock, and move into LEAPS (if there are any). That way you lock in gains and can put a portion of those gains into LEAPS for peace of mind. This works best if you made huge gains on the stock and are able to buy the LEAPS at a reasonable cost with a strike somewhere around the price you sold it at.

OK thanks for the reply Tim. If this is a done deal, this is a YUGE tax cut - the immediate tax write off of capital is also huge. I am trying to wrap my head around this. I am kind of writing as I am thinking here. From just looking at the tax cut, this is an immediate boost to net income of about 23% for all profitable US based corps (on $100 pre tax net income with the tax cut would be $80 instead of $65). But it is not so straight forward because: - Every company has different tax circumstances (if you have a lot of future tax assets the tax cut is not as beneficial, and if you have timing differences your cash taxes might be lower than 35% to start). - The laws could be reversed in the future. - What discount rate would you use, on that additional income? if tax cuts cause growth/inflation the discount rate on those future cash flows should change because interest rates will change. But if you are a company paying 35% in cash taxes at present this should be a huge boost. Off the top of my head i am thinking of wells fargo as an example, i have to double check but i am pretty sure they consistently pay around 35% in cash taxes. and even with the recent run up I don't think a tax cut has been priced in. But i need to look at this more and idk what the final rules will look like, and if the 20% (or 15%) will be applied to every industry. I assume other members on the forum would have similar issues trying to analyze this. Anyways, it is late, time to go to bed and dream about tax cuts....hmmm tax cuts.

I was reading the tax reform proposal by republicans under "a better way". They want to reduce big corporation tax rates from 35% to 20%. Obviously this would impact everyone on the board that owns US corp stocks. This question is for any of you familiar with US tax law or how laws are passed in the US. - Is this tax cut pretty much a done deal with Trump in office and republicans in control? - If so, how long would this take to come into law? I know in Canada something like this can be implemented pretty quickly (IIRC in Canada it doesn't have to go into the the actual wording of the tax code, it can be passed more informally through regulations, and it becomes effective once it goes through a couple readings in the house of commons, or something like that), but not sure how it works south of the border. Thanks. Make COBF great again

I disagree, you should sell when you liquidate 75% of the total portfolio up to half of the buy and sell. The other 50% should be held on a 12 month rolling basis, up to half the weighted average on a buy or short ratio. Keep in mind, to optimize the optimization you need to leverage with a full hedge.

You are living in a pre november 8 time. We are in now the trump era. "Gentle" men are prey in this new world and nothing is off limits. Including seema mody. In fact, since trump is the president, and technically our new world leader, we should be able to say anything on here without getting banned. He has set a precedent for all of us.

lol there is a difference between being a cheapskate and frugal but there is a fine line there too. Buffett seems frugal but he doesn't seem cheap. That's it right there it is about energy. Wasted brain energy that could be directed towards more important things like betting on a stock. You only have so much energy in a day and everywhere you turn somebody is trying to nickel and dime you. If you want an extra nickel from me here you go, I almost look at it like I have to pay a premium in life to avoid these distractions and focus on what matters.

Saving is way overrated. The cheapskates i know put so many limitations on themselves. I can't eat here, or vacation here, or buy that bc it is $200 extra....how can you live that.....to me it is a trait that was passed down from our early resource greedy ancestors and it warps people's minds. Another thing about these cheapskates i know, they would make terrible investors. If any of the cheapskates I know bought a value stock and it went down 50% afterwards they would implode, panic and sellout at a loss. I think the best investors also have a trait where they are emotionally detached from money. An emotionally detached investor can put 50% of his net worth in one stock and do it rationally (accepting it will go lower), not to get rich per say, but bc the probabilities are so much on their side that it would almost be irrational not to. If there is a 90% chance you get a multi bagger (the energy crash had these opportunities), and you did all your work you should go all in. People who think this is too risky I just look at it this way. If I work 9-5 there is say a 90% chance I get paid a steady income going forward. But there is also a 10% chance I get fired, laid off or want to quit bc I end up hating my job. But nobody thinks working a 9-5 is risky. To me it is all same, you have a 90% chance here and 90% there. But with the 90% multi bagger you have the chance to literally change your life forever. Maybe my brain is twisted, idk, but this is how i view it and this is how i invest. PS i know you can't attach exact probabilities to anything but you can approximate an outcome based on all the relevant information.

Buy coal stocks. http://time.com/4447586/trump-coal-industry-energy/