This is a great example of macro prediction that Tetlock disembowels in "Superforecasting".
First of all, no time frame is given.
Second, it's all "if this then that maybe" vague pontification.
Third, it's not even come true, but the author claims it has.
Fourth, if it won't come true, author will say "but I said ifffff".
Fifth, it is cherry picked out of a long list of author's prognostications by using Monday morning quarterbacking and selective memory. There is zero accountability for any of the predictions, and zero evaluation of how many of them worked out and how many didn't.
Since this is all in good fun, I'll play ball Jurgis:
1. S&P 500 falls to slightly below 1,700, and bottoms in the 1,660-1,700 range in the next 6 months. Should the market fall below that, expect a retest of the 1,550 tops of 2000 and 2007.
2. The Canadian dollar although in freefall, bottoms around $0.665 against the USD. This happens in the next 12 months. I'm a Canuck, so I follow CAD-USD closely.
3. Even if the Federal Reserve raises rates again this year, it reverses course before the end of 2017. Rates go negative within 3 years, as all other options are exhausted, and all other developed economies continue to lower their rates creating the importation of deflation in the U.S. The rate declines in other countries fail as well, as deep credit contraction will pressure countries.
4. Gold rises to 1,200 as the fear trade creates a little rally in the yellow metal. However, before the year is done, gold also peaks, and resumes its decline.
5. Oil bottoms this year in the $23-25 range. It does not rally, but just sits there, as the global GDP growth rate falls to the 1% mark.
I'm just saying this all in fun, but I am thinking in these terms and trying (failing in my attempt?) to position my portolio against the above forecasts...I should also add, I'm not sure I care if I'm right or wrong overall. I don't manage other people's money, and I hedge my portfolio, and attempt to get a positive return each and every year. Since it's my money and not others, I treat my portfolio like a family member, and try to do no harm to it.