Fly

Counterpoint, retail is trading trump/melania coins. They will get burnt and learn the lesson the hard way and rotate into BTC over time. This is a common path for retail players for several cycles now.

Take the full 15 months. Those 3mo with you and the baby solo will be incredibly challenging and difficult for the first few weeks but irreplaceable after that.

Geopolitics is not my strong suit, but could China seek closer ties with Canada if the US started a tariff war?

I wouldn't clean them without speaking to a dealer/expert first.

4:30 Gensler has it right, Bitcoin and then there's everything else. The "everything else" is predominantly shit and scams. He was hard on that segment and centralized entities like exchanges/VCs hated it since that was their livelihood. I am concerned that now we will see Trump embrace that "everything else" and we see even more crap like we have in the past.

Anyone have thoughts on this part? Could a drastic rise in nodes signal a future bad actor?

Airlines, SAVE and JBLU seem prime targets for someone to pick up.

The part that interests me is Bitfinex seems required to utilize a majority portion of any recovered BTC from the 2016 hack to purchase and burn LEO tokens (per the LEO white paper). The run up in price is irrelevant because a potential $x billion would additionally be spent purchasing and burning LEO in the event Bitfinex recovers some BTC. BFX would be a price insensitive buyer, mandated to spend $x within 18 months of receipt. The coin has been on my radar for a long time, but the hackers remained at large until 2022. Then it became an uncertainty if/when any BTC would ever make it back to BFX. Now we are at least seeing a court case begin regarding the issue. I agree this is a huge long shot, but even if 10% of recovered BTC makes it back to BFX that would be a huge amount of buying pressure on a relatively illiquid coin. It is very difficult to get LEO without a Bitfinex account (closed to US persons). So I’m likely just going to be watching from the sidelines.

Let’s talk Bitfinex for a moment. In 2016 they were hacked for ~120,000 BTC. Bitfinex made customers whole over the next year or so but the BTC was still missing. Bitfinex issued a new utility token called LEO. One interesting part of the tokenomics discusses purchasing LEO tokens with any BTC Bitfinex can recover from the hack: Pg 15 https://www.bitfinex.com/wp-2019-05.pdf Fast forward to 2022, the hackers were arrested and ~108,000 BTC was recovered: https://www.chainalysis.com/blog/bitfinex-hack-plea-july-2023/ November 2024 the hackers were sentenced: https://www.reuters.com/legal/legalindustry/when-stolen-crypto-is-recovered-who-is-entitled-restitution-2024-12-09/ Now the court case for restitution begins. Who gets these recovered BTC? I know investing based on a legal outcome is a coin flip, but anyone watching this and see potential for a portion of these BTC to make it back to Bitfinex and used for purchase of LEO?

What is the use case for ETH? Smart contracts. Follow that use case to its logical end point and you come to a centralized database run by Google. I don't see the need for ETH, or how ETH could survive against better/faster smart contract platforms. BTC is a different animal with the monetary use case, and ETH is not comparable.

Stone Ridge 2024 letter, always a great one https://www.nydig.com/research/stone-ridge-2024-investor-letter

Russ Napier interview https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-we-are-headed-towards-a-system-of-national-capitalism-ld.12718

I think you'll hit it with the 2040 guess: https://charts.bitbo.io/long-term-power-law/ 2028-2037 depending on base or bull case

And the rate of decrease for the 40-54 crowd, yikes.

Yes, but US retail is largely absent from those markets. Imagine the Friday late night trading volatility from the WSB crowds coming home from the bars. Pure beauty.