valcont
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Posts posted by valcont
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You can only say there is a possibility of life elsewhere if you understand how that life came to be. Again, mathematical probability is not a proof. Its merely an educated guess which was my main point. It's like the use of infinity in mathematics. It works in our equations to give us extremely accurate measurements etc. But it hasn't actually been shown to exist in the real world. But it works within out "scientific worldview."
Nope. I can say there is possibility of life else where based on my observation that life exists on this planet. Its a fact and I have several ways to prove the hypothesis. I don't need to understand how planet was created to prove that there may be other planets in the Universe. Probability does the trick here.
As far as me "believing in something greater", my point isn't that I'm right; It's simply the fact that it makes just as much sense as any of the current hypothesis' out there.
Actually it makes no sense. Current hypothesis is based on the fact that life exists here and we have observed it. Let me know when you observe the God almighty.
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To be honest, I don't buy the whole alien thing. One it relies too heavily on the pre-supposition that we understand how life began.
1.) We don't know how life started.
2.) We don't know how, why, or where the big bang happened. Where was this floating speck of dense matter?
So how can we assume other life exists based on mathematical probability based on a hypothesis that isn't testable and without a proof?
Your statements may be correct but your inference is precisely wrong. If you believe both to be true AND you can observe life on earth than it is safe to assume that there is a possibility of alien life somewhere else.
Personally I think there has to be something "greater" than ourselves.
Mind sharing the hypothesis for that pre supposition?
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What is VERY CLEAR, is that there is something out there. 99.99% chance. The one chance that there is NOT something out there is that this might be an elaborate government hoax?
Assuming it is not a hoax, What is not clear is who made it, who is piloting/controlling it, what exactly it is (drone, fighter, experiment, amusement park ride?), what the technology is OR what it's intentions are.
This should be getting more press and attention than what it is.
There is really no upside for the government to disclose it. If its an enemy craft then they are not prepared to handle it and if its an alien ship then there goes the social/religious fabric of the society and all the fairy tales that comes with it. If it were an organized hoax then you will hear a LOT more about it in the media.
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I own a C Corp business that has been accumulating cash which I won't need to reinvest for at least 2 years. I am interested in hearing from the business owners about their strategy to invest the excess capital. I am guessing that treasuries or laddered bond portfolio can work but has anyone attempted stock/index investing via company account ? My accountant wasn't much help and I am not sure how IRS looks at this investing activity especially the gains/losses. Going to be digging on that but any insights will be helpful.
Also any recommendations on the brokerage firm that handles company accounts? I called the Interactive Brokers and they only know how to open a 401K account in the company's name.
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It could be that the military wanted to get a "real life" test of the craft's performance & stealth by flying it down a commercial alley.
Hard to say...
As a child, I was a UFO enthusiast...but most young boys are. I wanted them to be real. Then I grew up a bit and thought about it and the evidence that had been collected was a bunch of stories from half drunk hillbillies & whackos for the most part. There was little to no physical evidence.
Most of the photos were grainy and/or looked like they had been staged faked.
I also tried to put myself into the mind of an alien. I would probably go to Vegas, or New York City OR a very important city, NYC, London, Moscow...somewhere interesting or important. As an alien, why would I be preying on the poor people in trailer parks? Just did not make much sense.
OR
When the Soviet Union broke apart, they were selling stuff, secrets were getting out...why was little to nothing mentioned of UFO's? If the Soviets had conclusive or compelling evidence, would it not have been sold or come to light?
So I figured UFO's were most likely the result of too much alcohol, drugs, or an over active imagination.
NOW we get some pretty compelling evidence, MUCH more so than everything previously put together...and it largely gets a ho-hum. Most people that I talk with about it have heard NOTHING about the UFO's, or almost nothing. Nor do they seem particularly interested to hear anything. Everybody seems to be enmeshed in Facebook, what the Kardashians are doing, what Trump said, or what they are going to have for dinner tomorrow.
Assuming that the media is not lying, AND that the government is not lying, these incidents I think are pretty conclusive evidence that SOMETHING is going on. What exactly it is, I am not sure.
I don't pay attention to the kidnappings or waking up to little green men stories. But UFO's around military installations or reported by pilots seems credible enough since the reporting party have lot to lose if this was a hoax. But both of them are treated the same way in the media.
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I've heard most of those tapes, and they are very interesting.
I think it is highly likely that is a military aircraft though. It's behavior was not anywhere as strange as what happened out over the Pacific in 2004.
Possibly, although I don't get the rational of flying clandestine warplane in the commercial alley. But who knows , maybe they are testing the F-U series.
And I don't get the media attitude about covering this. Even if you strongly believe its not an alien craft, isn't there a huge story about security gap or pilot insanity?
I do admit that I'm a UFO junkie. We barely understand the universe, our place in it, life's origin to conclusively state that we are alone. Maybe Musk is right that the odds of this world being a simulation are higher than this being a base reality.
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This reporter has filed some interesting reports of an encounter over Oregon and California. The FAA interviews with the pilots are fascinating.
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Probably the first one to report a loss. Down 15%, could have been worse had I not followed Writser's strategy AND ignored his advice of not investing in joke of a company called MRS. Doubled in 3 months. Biggest losers were FELP and OCN.
BTW this wasn't a criticism of writser's strategy. I meant to say I got lucky with this pick. Bad attempt at sarcasm.
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Probably the first one to report a loss. Down 15%, could have been worse had I not followed Writser's strategy AND ignored his advice of not investing in joke of a company called MRS. Doubled in 3 months. Biggest losers were FELP and OCN.
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Anyone have experience with this? I'm looking to invest my IRA in my fund and am seeing what self-directed IRA service makes sense. I just looked at this one, which costs a bit over $100 per year it seems like.
https://www.iraservicestrust.com/why-ira-services#
If you have a fund , why not open a solo 401K and move your IRA? I have one from Fidelity which is free and have complete control over my investments.
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My approach is 'not digging deeper'? Thanks, I guess :P. FWIW I would never buy MRS. Everything screams pump and dump.
haha sorry buddy, I take it back. Didn't mean that you throw darts. I meant taking small positions where the probability of success is positive overall. And I probably started with the wrong stock.
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I wouldn't say the market is in a wait and see issue. The stock went up 5x on the news from $.05 to $.25. Even if it is real they really have no manufacturing as their only facility is 22k square feet.
Well it still is only a $20m mkt cap company. The PO is either there or its a complete fraud. If the PO is legit than $400m rev over five years doesn't justify $20m cap. Even the distributor will advance $20m if they get the $50m PO in the first year. I got interested because of the PP. This one was private and the participants usually have access to lot more material than whats available in the public realm. Even the management participated and bought around $100k. On the other side , you have 10m warrants at a strike of .15 expiring at the end of the year. Who knows may be this is a set up to cash them out as discussed in other sites.
I'm taking writser approach and putting in 3% so I don't have to dig deeper.
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Anyone look into MRS.cve ?
It's a 30 million microcap that provides armored gear to law enforcement and the military. They have received a $400 million 5-year agreement with a foreign government to distribute their products.
The market is awaiting the first purchase order to provide some kind of legitimacy to the agreement.
I bought some when I saw the management buying in a PP. I thought it was a joke of a company with funny sounding name and I still have doubts about it. B I did a little research and found out that they actually have a product that was co developed with a government's division. Who knows it might be a pump-n-dump but if the PO materializes then this one will have a big upside.
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It's not your style of investing to estimate intrinsic value without using price as an anchor? Because that is exactly what he asked you to do.
Estimate intrinsic value for an entity that just declared restructuring? NO THANK YOU. I sometimes think that Buffet has done more harm than good by blabbering these aphorisms that people mindlessly parrot. Here is a better one
“These stunts are performed by trained professionals, don't try this at home..”
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Frankly I think it is dangerous to use market prices as a starting point for your analysis - you are creating a situation where it is extremely likely your analysis is biased. I.e. if PERF trades at $1.96 you think "that's a juicy return for a few weeks" but if it trades at $1.80 your starting point is "let me find out what is wrong with this horribly risky bet".
Well this is not my style of investing but for an argument sake , will I be interested in it if its closer to fair value and I can get a nice IRR? Well that will be determined by my position size and the time that I will spent on it. At closer to fair value , I have to have a decent position size and spend a lot of time since I am risking a dollar for a penny. So not worth it. But if I bet multiple times on similar situations, than I am betting on the deal flow which in this market is pretty guaranteed. So a good strategy in this market. Not sure if you have tried it around 2008,09,10 but there were fewer deals then and a lot more diligence.
That's why I asked you to estimate the chances of the bankruptcy package deal going through in a vacuum. How would you handicap it if you read it in a newspaper, without any stock prices?
As I have said before, if its a pre pack in which all parties agree to the deal then the only risk is buyer walking out. So a good chance that it will go through.
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Hard to stomach but if you make 200 uncorrelated bets exactly like that your should do great (assuming you are correct about the odds .. ).
That's the key. And since the positions are small enough, less research. I am fascinated by this approach but you need a certain type of personality to do this churning. I am more like a home run type. If I don't see a lot of potential , I am not interested.
In a vacuum, with no money on the line, how would you estimate the chances of the package deal going through?
Well I would first try to find out why is there a 10% discount? Most likely it is reflecting the time to get the restructuring plan approved. The exhibit only refers to the opt in date which is next month. Not sure if this is a pre pack where the leaseholders are already agreeing to the terms or the company will try to cram up. Either way it'll need a judge's approval.
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Small block of PERF. Somebody wrote a nice blog post about it here.
Just curious how do you size your positions? In this case you are risking a complete loss for a 9% return. There is no arbitrage here so this is a binary bet based on the founder's stake . Is that the right way to think about it? I look at your posts but have never pulled the trigger since I just can't justify the risk/return.
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I used to work for an investment bank. Even though we had an electronic bond trading set up, most of the trading was done the old fashioned way via telephone. You are better off calling the IB trading desk and have them execute the order. You will get a much better price. No point in calling the exchange, they only deal with the brokers.
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MX
Would have been a great call 6 months ago... ;)
I bought a small stake earlier this year after reading aviclara's (one of my favorites) thesis at VIC. I agree it was a low hurdle until now . They only have to meet the margins that they have been advertising since last year. But the Amoled growth story is still intact and they are the only independent provider. The back half of this year should see more growth.
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Oh come on. The guy's father is a senator of the US!! I'm sure there is a lot of alpha coming out of that. Ask Buffet.
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People were concerned about their upcoming debt maturity but, this indicates support from their lenders as they would never allow that if they were concerned about default or lack of refinancing availability:
https://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=Z-C%3aBRY-2479698&symbol=BRY®ion=C
So more solid business right in the middle of the Permian: "I am all the way up!. Nothing can stop me, I am all the way up!"
Cardboard
How's opening a new servicing facility tied to their ability to refinance? They are not taking on new debt and as long as the covenants are fine , lenders can do little. The concern is if they can refinance the debt and if yes than at what rate.
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I agree with Rukawa, permabear on this board :) . Wish I had listened to him about Ocwen.
This reminds me of the embarrassing situation where I was put on the select team in Soccer even though I sucked because they confused me with a much better player who has the same first name. I think you are confusing with the far more intelligent poster Roark33. I have one comment on Ocwen and it reads:
You are right, I did confuse one master with the other. I confuse Bruce Lee with Chuck Norris the same way. No excuses.
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Somewhat speculative with multibagger potential, HemaCare (my write-up is here: https://alphavulture.com/2017/05/02/hemacare-deep-value-turning-into-growth-story/). Rapidly growing turnaround story. Lots of upside if they can continue on the current path.
An interesting idea indeed! Thank you for alerting us to it and sharing your research!
Mcap: 30 million
earnings: 0.7 million
Revenue: 13 million
So they currently trade at nearly 3 times revenue and the whole case is based on them growing. Seems expensive to me.
I agree with Rukawa, permabear on this board :) . Wish I had listened to him about Ocwen.
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There's nothing special about the US except for having lots of people.
I especially don't see why the US would be superior to Canada and Australia for immigrants.
Name one thing that had originated in Canada in the last 50 years that people from all over the world has found useful on a daily basis (Pamela Anderson excluded).
US is the center(or epicenter) of this planet. Weather its internet, google, Apple ,Uber, F16s, Mars missions, medical breakthroughs, shale ,politics , movies, this country rules the world. Immigrants understands this energy and the potential. And the ones that can't make it here go to other places.
Where are the UFOs?
in General Discussion
Posted
Looks like the senators got a briefing on UFO sightings today. Trump was briefed last week.
https://www.politico.com/story/2019/06/19/warner-classified-briefing-ufos-1544273