Jump to content

Junto

Member
  • Posts

    433
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by Junto

  1. It will get there. We are in the middle of the storm...the math works in the bank's favor over the coming quarters. Pre-provision earnings and a stabilizing NII + Fee base will provide ample coverage over the next three years to see it through the recent carnage. I am definitely a long-term player in BAC.
  2. It comes out every couple of weeks. Type in nasdaq short interest calendar in google.
  3. http://risingdividendinvesting.blogspot.com/ A starting point of ideas
  4. Looks like a fairly speculative play on the Mongolian economy. No established business operations from what I can ascertain. More or less almost a SPAC that is up four fold from the initial offering. Not my type of investment, but will watch out of curiousity. Link to monthly shareholder letter. Most recent news...it is cold in Mongolia: http://www.mongoliagrowthgroup.com/monthlysharehold.html
  5. I will throw my hat in the ring. ;) Long way to go in this guys investment lifetime. Link to my covestor model home page and information: http://bit.ly/fUJy7A
  6. Well for starters, I'm eliminating financials and any upper teens P/E stocks. Poor decision to eliminate financial industry stocks in a rebounding economy..
  7. Appears to be overly dramatic at nearly 100% cash yielding near zero rates. The market is not that crazy... I don't find the market overly cheap, but I also don't see it wildly overvalued. 2008/2009 are terrible comparisons for the current marketplace. You have to go a lot further back in history to find a similar situation to what the market is developing today. I understand the pessimism given the recent market advances but as I said, probably over dramatic. The economy is rebounding. As a commercial lender, my manufacturing and clients servicing the manufacturing sector are seeing material pick ups in sales since 2008 and 2009 in 2010. Projections for 2011 are positive even with my most conservative clients. The real estate market in the Midwest appears to continue to be at a stand still although national builders are acquiring inventory and a REIT in our area recently purchased land for speculative Industrial Development. As the economy rebounds, you will see market advances like you are seeing here. The economy has a long ways to go before it is completely stabilized and I don't think the employment levels of 2005-2007 are sustainable or likely to come back in the near future; however, I do see lots of positive changes in the economy around me to make me confident the advance is not ill founded. The key risks I see are the government budget issues, taxes, Mid-East unrest, and the unknown unknown macro events that could change the playing field.
  8. Yet is free in pdf
  9. How's that "short term" short coming for you? Up 7% today ;D Already out. Perhaps you need to reread my post regarding my risk control ;) I don't post good returns through tough markets by not following a plan.
  10. Always do; what kind of investor would I be if there is not a point pre-entry I am willing to sell at for both a gain and a loss? Not a big position in this stock, so overall risk of loss is minimal across my portfolio. Risk/Reward characteristic looked promissing from my analysis.
  11. Not sure, not interested in whatever that was Harry. I am also about making money. Honestly this is a short term short for me. I see a pull back to under $200 in the coming three months.
  12. Article of Interest Amazon Leaks Details About Their Netflix-Like Movie Subscription Service, Free For Prime Members Not much news usually takes place on the weekend, but on Saturday afternoon, Engadget.com posted multiple screenshots of an Amazon page offering free unlimited streaming of movies and TV shows. Amazon wording on the page said, "Your Amazon Prime membership now includes unlimited, commerical-free instant streaming of 5,000 movies and TV shows at no additional cost". Shortly after it was reported, the Amazon user who found the page could no longer access it, but multiple screenshots at Engadget.com clearly shows the details and is the best proof yet that Amazon is getting ready to challenge Netflix with a subscription based streaming service. Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/amazon-leaks-details-about-their-netflix-like-movie-subscription-service-free-for-prime-members-2011-1#ixzz1Ca18GbVv disclosure - I am short Netflix at $210.73
  13. I know for Model Managers who are using the same investment strategy and have historical data, the model relationship manager indicated they will reconstruct your previous history. All the interactions I have had with the staff and management at Covestor has always been great and informative if you have question on the site. If not, certainly never a bad time to start tracking. If you never take the leap, you will always be asking that same question.
  14. This is an open message to see how many others on this board are either on Covestor as a Model Manager and/or have their accounts linked on Covestor. It would be interesting for me to be able to catalog/bookmark the investors to watch their performance as we discuss investments on the board. My investments can be tracked through: My profile page: http://bit.ly/fUJy7A Model (Inception August 2009) - http://bit.ly/dZ43Eu Personal Portfolio (Started tracking June 2007) - http://bit.ly/dNE48X For those of you who are not familiar with Covestor: Covestor, founded in 2006, empowers everyday people to experience investment returns comparable to those of proven investors – and more than 20,000 users have made Covestor the world's largest online money management platform. It also provides individual investors the ability to create an independently reviewed performance history that is provides more transparency to the returns of the investors. The site allows you to see how proven investors manage their own money in their own accounts. Then, through a Covestor Mirroring Account, set up your brokerage account to automatically mirror each strategy selected, trade for trade. Investors can subscribe to a diverse and growing set of highly respected professional money managers as well as non-professionals with proven track records – with all securities purchased in the client’s name and held in custody at an independent broker-dealer. Covestor believes investing should be: • Open – The benefits that proven money management ability shouldn't be limited to only the wealthiest. • Transparent – You should be able to see where your money is being invested in real-time, as well as how it is performing for you at any time. • Secure – Your money should remain in the security of your own account at all times; there should be no middle-men and no hidden fees. The company’s investors include Union Square Ventures, Spark Capital and Amadeus Capital Partners. Covestor is an SEC Registered Investment Advisor and all model managers’ returns are verified. Covestor's transactional platform is patent pending. A link to a video explaining the site: http://site.covestor.com/what-is-covestor-video-iframe
  15. Anyone on here using covestor to track their returns? It would be beneficial for some of the board's experts to open the books per se. No talk here. My returns since June 2007 and my model since August 2009 are available to see. Covestor.com My main page: http://covestor.com/andy-schornack Check it out.
  16. As I read the comment from Parsad, Parsad is speaking from a strategic standpoint not from a valuation standpoint. Now from a valuation standpoint, I need to do more research on FMMH to understand an exact valuation and ownership metrics. He does own his ten percent at a good price. Getting back to analyzing his strategy on the acquisition of FMMH, I personally like that he creates angst in companies with his initial offer. This way we are somewhat assured he is not paying too much. He can work up from there. I just don't want him to get carried away. The question is if he could cut a lot of the rigmarole if he came out with a slightly higher price at the start of negotiations. Just some initial thoughts.
  17. Parsad you are in fantasy land if you think potential acquirers should not be open to renegotiating an offering price.
  18. He also sold WEST and the LION Fund to SNS subsequent these words. One of the business's for $1 which does and will have future earnings potential. The change in compensation also occurred after he had made significant progress in rehabilitating SNS. Now, not to say that it is a fine line based on these original comments. No more comments from me on this thread.
  19. How is a $160 to $420 in two-three years a single. What kind of returns do you expect? I hate to belabor the point, but many of you are over sensitive. Many even got larger returns depending on the entry point. Again, I am not intending to be the lone defender but some of the comments don't seem to stand on logic, facts, and history. He is certainly not perfect and neither are we.
  20. It seems to me i am one of the only commentators who is not blinded by emotions when looking at Biglari. I think many of you cannot accept what the facts are and those who have and sold are bitter for pretending they found the next Buffet to find an enterprising young man that is his own animal as we all are. I was not for naming the company what it is, but that has no bearing on the ability of the CEO to perform. It certainly puts more pressure on him. I do not find him to be a superstar, but he has performed. I am betting on a winner and my own personal viewpoint that there will be opportunities in the immediate future to put cheap money to work which will provide market beating returns to shareholders over the long term. Naive as many of you seem to be about the managers of public companies and what a respectable wage is for a CEO and money manager, Biglari has continued to manage the day to day business very well and has positioned the company well going into then economic recovery in the United States. He will polish his public relations skills, no one is perfect and many activist investors have a tendency of insulting existing management. We will see how this plays out and I do not recommend it a buy right now, certainly a hold, but I got money in the game.
  21. Fairfax and Markel seemed too mainstream and "follow the value investor masses" for me. When is the most shareholder return realized in a business? After it is a proven commodity or when it is becoming one? BH is not the only investment option, but I do think you are getting in at the beginning part of a growing business. Over the next few years there will be plenty of opportunities to put the money to work buying the 4 or 5 times cash flow companies with cut rate debt and experience some significant gains. I look forward to being a part of this company as Biglari puts the money to work. I also don't blame the guy for building an incentive system to consolidate his interests and compensate himself for losing the value of his hedge fund. This doesn't mean I like it. I am prepared to pay for his services as long as he performs. I am in with a cost basis of $162.14 and have paired from an over-sized position to a typical position over the past year as I do with most my investments when they have significant returns. This guy will perform, and if I am wrong, I will eat my words in terms of investment losses. My vote is that BH will outperform FFH and Markel over the next five years. Let the clock begin.
  22. My thoughts as well. I got in when Biglari moved to take control. Took profits along the way, but now have a portion of long-term watch and see money. Valuations are tighter, but shareholder performance is undeniable at this point. Not a big allocation. It also looks like the debentures will be redeemed next June at call.
  23. FDIC led that deal based on my understanding. Don't know a lot of the specifics so I am somewhat uninformed. I do strongly believe Jamie is one of the best out there and I do not question his ethics. If he took advantage of the situation for the benefit of the JPM shareholders at the cost to the Wamu shareholders, I am not going to hold that against him. Given the situation, that is called a good prudent business decision. He is informative and transparent which is better than most in the position he is in.
  24. or he follows your twitter feed... ;)
  25. If you are looking into Regional Banks - NYB and FNFG should both be at the top of your list. Good dividend yield and impressive performance through the downturn. Being from Minneapolis Area, USB is another solid regional bank, but in my view, not as attractive.
×
×
  • Create New...