influx

Folks, just because we (may) want USA to win, it doesn't mean it's winning or the blockade makes sense (ex post reasoning; financial/economics 101 doesn't work here 100% of the time). If it did, it would have been done before the war or at the beginning. We are reasoning based on our principles and way of life, that financial/economics 101 pain will work. Instead, reason from Iran's point of view (it's existential and they've been under sanctions for a long time). Just a reminder re Iran's willingness not to produce and how long it went for in the past:

Fair enough

Same bias = My timeline is very biased towards ‘oil prices will be higher’ and I keep searching for a bear case so I can hold and not sell. Bear case 1: I agree, assuming Iran surrenders (allow me to say it's western propaganda) But, I just don't see an acceptable peace deal and what it looks like for both sides. Unless Putin and/or Xi tell them to surrender because ....(there is something we don't know). However, incentives of all involved are telling me otherwise (except for USA). Probably not the the best thread for this discussion. Bear case 2: Demand destruction arrives faster and/or sooner than an increase in the oil price. (add export controls too) Most of the oil analysts, independent or otherwise (JPM, Goldman, etc) are saying the oil price should have risen (or will rise). The worrying thing is they keep moving the target I don't have the experience or industry knowledge so I don't know if this is possible. I guess, what I am saying is supply/demand curve and the pricing of the marginal barrels doesn't work in this case. I don't see anything else. So, I am still bullish and evaluating on a daily basis.

So what is the fair estimate for: 1. 2026 2. 2027 Is it the futures prices or dated brent or somewhere in between or we'll see? Attached is the tweet https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2047369251111960963?s=20https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2047369251111960963?s=20https://x.com/aeberman12/status/2047369251111960963?s=20 oil - art berman.pdf

All of them are saying higher oil prices are coming Reading Rory, Pierre, Anas, etc, etc. Art Berman is not. I understand it's not just about oil prices but the downstream products too. One thing why higher they say is the refilling of the SPRs and the commercial crude storage. The question I have: Does it have to be refilled ASAP assuming the minimum operational level is not breached? I would think we can wait until we get to an oversupplied market and then start refilling. Anyone with better knowledge or good text to read other than LLMs? Please share

He bought KD after spin-off at around $11. All based on previous letters. BTW, I am reading these for ideas. It's part of my research work. If you have the Q2, then I don't mind, comical or not.

Q3 2025 attached. If you find / have the Q2 2025, then please send it my way. Greenlight Qlet2025-03-1_unlocked_watermark.pdf

Has anyone got the Q2 2025 letter? If you could please share a link or PM me or attach here. Thank you. I'll be looking for Q3 as well.

Hi Folks, Do you have any cannibals screeners that you use, free or otherwise (not bloomberg)? I am not an institutional investor. I did some search and I am yet to check my results and see what's out there. I am aware I can check company's outstanding shares over time though, say on https://www.macrotrends.net

Yeah I started playing a little bit, but not much, not yet I guess I should open a new thread? I have some ideas and I am guessing you all do. 1. Like how you read 2. Do you speed read or pdf to audio 3. Podcasts 4. Running LLM on my personal desktop or laptop 5. Cloud LLM vs privacy.

I don't want to hijack this thread, I may open a new one but I'd like to discuss the investing research and learning process in light of the recent SLMs/LLMs tools and challenges with content curation, etc. Do you know if there is any thread? I tried to find the most suitable thread but I don't think I was successful. The closest I got is this one.

Yeah, okay. Thank you.

@Spekulatius how about BHF?

Yes, @Monsieur_dee Bob Robotti was talking about LPX. I watched a fireside chat a month or two ago. Is there a screen or a way to track these cannibals on quarterly or annual basis? It maybe manual or using ycharts and similar platforms?

Sounds like this is the vehicle, 5y warrants are his thing. https://www.stockgumshoe.com/reviews/katusas-resource-opportunities/katusas-global-race-to-net-zero-and-the-global-war-on-carbon-emissions/ https://www.carbonstreaming.com/media/news-releases/carbon-streaming-completes-us1049-million-private-placement-of-special-warrants

I've listened to some of his videos as well: https://www.youtube.com/c/KatusaResearch/videos But I am not sure which investments he refers to. Somewhat similar is Pierre Andurand and his RV interview, he is nto the carbon credits futures https://www.realvision.com/pierre-andurand-the-oil-master-looks-to-the-future

How do you track podcast guests by their full name? How do you setup an alert? Can you please share and tell what do you use?

Hi Guys and Ladies. I hope you are well. Is there a free screener/filter that I can use and setup. I'd like to use the default 52 week filter but modify the start and end date. Can you please help? Thanks

Yeah so it is the futures right? That's how I get 5 year leaps? Yeah, sorry, it is an old Grants article, 10 or more years, don't remember.

Hi All. I hope you are well. This might be better for Strategies but was unsure. I have an old Grants article, quote: "(An investor friend relates that he recently bough 250,000 gold calls struck at $500 for five years at a cost of $2 each. Given that that the forward gold price is approximately $370, he observed, the calls are essentially free." So, can you help me understand how one might be able to do this as a non-institutional investor? Are they talking about long-term calls on futures contracts or? Thanks

Thanks sir. Yeah, understood. I hope all has gone well

Hi Folks. I hope you are well. I've tried to find this online. Do you guys know if there is a full video of the hearing? I've seen the Dirty Lies short snippets though. Would love to watch the whole thing.. :) Thanks

Hello Team. I hope all are well :) Just been thinking that I don't really know of a good source for the Canadian marks, e.g. Toronto markets. I've done some search https://quant.stackexchange.com/questions/4079/data-source-for-historical-share-outstanding-totals-for-individual-stocks https://ycharts.com https://tradingeconomics.com/cco:cn:common-shares-outstanding - works well. maybe it is using US stock exchange as a source in the background? https://tradingeconomics.com/aim:cn:common-shares-outstanding - works well https://tradingeconomics.com/pg:cn:common-shares-outstanding - doesn't work And found few more but none of them seem to be working well with all the Toronto shares including the above. I'd really like to overlay this chart with the price per share chart. I'd choose the past 5 or 10 years, choose the number of outstanding shares, the price per share and just get that on the chart? Is any of this possible? If yes, can you please advise how? If not, do you happen to know of Toronto / Canadian markets service that provide this? Thanks

Thanks. I also found "The Geography of Time" by Robert Levine

Hiya folks. Been thinking these 2-3 weeks and kind of getting to the concept of Time as an interdisciplinary concept. The pattern of its importance across different domains as well. I am almost done with Mark Spitznagel's book which emphasizes this long-term approach and time. Now, also reading mindfulness and meditation stuff and Time comes and jumps at me as a central concept. Sometimes I find this weird. It is like a topic has matured well enough in my head and then it gets a life of its own. I am yet to read Time Paradox, by Philip G Zimbardo. My question is do you know some other books that explore this concept, in practical terms? I've read all of Taleb's books. Thanks