rb
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Posts posted by rb
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Agreed...
Please be gentle with me here (what are your thoughts on shrinking the company by spinning out divisions & setting the wayback machine to 1970 for a restart?)
Consider this a thought experiment (or a thoughtless one, whichever you prefer...)
Well...
Firstly, I don't think spinouts are a good idea because a lot of the subs are more valuable inside of BRK as opposed to outside. So doing spinouts would destroy value.
Secondly, it's nearly impossible to do spinouts because the insurance cos own a lot of the subs. So really it's a moot point.
Secondly
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County level election maps election maps always look like that. What's your point?
Should a patch of desert where 100 people live count more than NYC where 10 million live? Should Alaska have 93 electoral votes?
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Yes Sanjeev, you need to give up Trump hotels. Is there anything wrong with the Four Seasons? Or Ritz Carlton? I'm a big fan of nice hotels and there are so many of them out there you won't miss the Trump Hotels.
There have to be consequences for this kind of stuff and money talks.
If I was able to give up German beer after their treatment of Greece you can give up Trump hotels.
I'm still hoping he's a closet Democrat and did all this simply to win.
You gave up German beer! :( Cheers!
I don't think he is a closet Democrat, I don't think he is a politician in the usual sense. He's pretty much doing this for publicity and his own ego. Unlike someone like Hillary, I doubt he is obsessed with political power for its own sake. I think he is closer to being a liberal than he let on in his campaign. What is truly amazing to me is how the left is reacting. There are people who are completely out of control, with no sense of proportion. He's the president not the dictator, with the possible exception of foreign policy he really doesn't have all that much unilateral power. He needs congress to get anything done, and his own party isn't crazy about him.
That too. His own party is him, not the republicans.
This chart says it all. Republicans did not particularly like Trump, he got less votes than either Romney in 2012 or McCain in 2008. The best way to describe this election isn't "Trump won", but rather "Hillary lost". Trump doesn't exactly have overwhelming support and the Republican Party leadership is not happy at all. My point is that he won't be able to do anything crazy.
You are completely correct. Hillary lost. There is no more center in American politics and Trump will energize the left like no-one before.
However, I don't think DT is a closet liberal or some conservative for that matter. I think he's Donald Trump and I think the meant everything he said. I fully expect him to do everything he said he'll do. I don't think the republicans will stop him from anything. They didn't stand up to him before and they're not gonna start now. Plus they love sticking it to the democrats a lot more that what bothers them about Trump.
He will introduce some horrible policies. But those could be reversed in time. We mostly cleaned up the Bush mess. I just hope he doesn't break some things that cant be fixed such as break NATO, let Putin redraw some borders in Europe, a war with Iran, etc. His influence on the Judicial Branch will be long lasting. Liberals will hate it but maybe this time they'll figure out that they should show up to vote.
However the vote is in and like you I do hope that he'll serve his whole 4 years. Because yes Mike Pence is a total nut job.
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How does acquiring KO increase the value of Berkshire, exclusivity? as in take out all the current owners who must become Berkshire owners if they so choose? I see a very specific criteria for public stocks to be acquired in whole by Berkshire, namely that they can bring something to the table or help a public company do better operating privately, otherwise I see more private acqusitions, joint ventures, or large % public stakes but not full stakes.
What happened to good old fashioned value? Or is Berkshire not a value shop anymore? Also owning the whole company provides tax benefits as opposed to owning large public stakes.
KO is no go cause of the price. Even if it's reasonably priced now, to take it out BRK would have to pay a hefty premium. I also think that BRK would probably prefer a company that likes to gobble up capital as opposed to a prodigious cash generator like KO.
We need to get serious here though. At the rate that BRK generates cash there's a limited set of opportunities. There are simply not that many private companies out there. 10 years ago buying Iscar was a big deal. Today they can have Iscar as an appetizer and still be eagerly awaiting the main course.
There's gonna be an evolution in acquisition strategy or it's dividend/buyback time.
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Yea. Still doesn't mean that you have to hand the guy money. Especially if you don't like him.
Fyi, Johnson didn't get tossed out.
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Yes Sanjeev, you need to give up Trump hotels. Is there anything wrong with the Four Seasons? Or Ritz Carlton? I'm a big fan of nice hotels and there are so many of them out there you won't miss the Trump Hotels.
There have to be consequences for this kind of stuff and money talks.
If I was able to give up German beer after their treatment of Greece you can give up Trump hotels.
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It's a simple lesson: Don't boo!... Vote!
You would have thought people learned that lesson after Brexit...
Well they didn't. They also didn't get it after Bush 2. As I've said the liberals are a coddled bunch. They need a kick in the ass and some tough love. The saying goes: Democrats need to fall in love. Republicans fall in line. Need to change that. Need to introduce some order in the ranks.
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Now much of this may be isolated incidents, but this is highly disturbing nonetheless:
It seems like many of these people, who were previously silent, are now more emboldened than ever.
I've read that. It's horrible. But maybe it's necessary. Liberals have been a pampered and spoiled bunch. They need to learn a less. I learned a few as detailed above. It's a simple lesson: Don't boo!... Vote!
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The funny thing is that they could actually take KO right now. It's ridiculous how much fire power BRK has.
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I don't think they can just sit around waiting for the phone to ring anymore. They'll have to start tracking prey like a real hunter. Cash is coming in just too damn fast.
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I think Trump's victory has given the left especially the Bernie-Warren wing a golden opportunity to destroy the conservative ideology for good. Conservatives who prides themselves in the small government, personal responsibility and free trade must be very nervous with their populist leader who has no ideological leanings and an inflated ego. Trump would not put up with an ideology that has no role for him and he ran on a populist agenda.The left wing should actively coopt with Trump to implement it rather than blocking him like the republicans did in '08. Give him the cover to walk out of the trade deals. That would also help weakening the Clinton-Schumer wing who are sold out and are corrupt. Trump would soon find out that the best he can do is to stop the bleeding and not get back the jobs. The tax breaks for the rich and fiscal reforms would take time to work out, the time that Trump doesn't have and wouldn't wait for. He would need an instant fix and will look to the big ole Govt for solutions. The Dems should help him set up all the entitlements like free education, healthcare,housing support, unemployment. Let him package it whatever the way he wants to but get the populace used to the idea of Trump(and by extension the Govt.) helping them. Off course the Republicans would balk at such measures but they have no choice and the Dems should use the division to drive the wedge. Let him kill Obamacare but nudge him towards something that has his name on it. Use him to fight the big pharma to drive down the costs. Get him to fund an infrastructure plan to provide jobs.
Off course the Dems wouldn't like his agenda on social issues and climate change. They should oppose it but not let it get in the way of him enacting a populist agenda. Let him kill the conservative ideology and the demographics will take care of the rest.
Good post. Let me add a little bit to it.
Firstly, the Schumer-Clinton wing of the Democratic Party is probably done as of roughly this morning. There's center left democrat will become about as common as the center right republican. An endangered species. It's the Liz Warren show going forward. No more Mr. Nice Liberal. And why not? This shit works. Republicans do it and they win.
Now my friends on the right (i have a lot of them) tell me that we on the left just don't get it. We don't understand the other America or the real America. I think that they're somewhat right. I for one thought a significant portion of the right would reject Trump's message. I was wrong.
I like to point to our friends on the right the possibility that they do not understand the left very well either. Now that it's the 2nd day after the election and the hangover is lifting i can look at things more coldly and clearly. The republicans won. But this was not a great victory. It was not Regan 1984. It was a squeaker. Also despite all the pomp, circumstance, and rhetoric it turns out it was not a special election. The republican coalition voted republican, the democratic coalition voted democratic, and there was a collapse in democratic turnout.
Our friends on the right and some on the left told us Hillary was a horrible candidate. Possible the worst we could have done. It appears they were right on this as well. I guess that's why the democratic turnout collapsed. However when all is said and done Hillary will win the popular vote by 1-2%. So if the democrats win the popular vote by 2 points when they run the worst possible candidate what happens when they run a half decent candidate, not to mention a great candidate?
No, the left is not dead. It's just waking up. This is gonna be fun!
All this being said I wish President Trump the best of luck. I also hope that from time to time he chooses a liberal kale salad over the KFC buckets. While I find a Trump presidency horrific Mike Pence frankly scares the shit outta me.
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Btw, I'm a fan of that old woman on BNN. I like someone who knows their stuff and does their jobs on financial news. If i wanna see hot chicks there's plenty of places on the internet. CNBC used to be good a long time ago. Then Bloomberg was decent then that went to shit. Then BNN but now that's going the way of CNBC.
Seriously, if you want good looking women, learn to use Google there's a wealth of data out there. I want my financial new from capable people not good looking ones. Is that so much to ask?
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- His promises and overall plan seem to be boiled down to what he said in the time span 5:13 - 11:13 in the clip - six minutes!, and a total U-turn in behavioral dimension compared to before this [especially longinvestors post above comes to mind here].
I have read a lot of posts in this topic, to which I can relate - both pros and cons. I really don't know what to think right now. I just really want my fellow US board members to hold Mr. Trump up on what his has promised here.
Is this another Trump pivot? How many of those did he have?
I definitely hope that it was all an act and that he's really a reasonable and capable person as opposed to a petty dishonest vindictive nut job.
The scary part is that many people in the past said exactly what you did and boy were they wrong.
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That's not inflation. That's just a one time price shock.
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Maybe. But DT not doing something stupid is a big IF. Also someone posted turnout numbers. Turnout down a lot for Dems and lots of really close races. If u get higher turnout could have easily tipped the other way. Anyway, let's not start talking about 2020 yet. I think everyone deserves a break.
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Good post, rb. There's also a question of inflation, which might be why banks are rallying. But that's also not necessarily good.
I'm not worried at all about inflation. Btw if you get the inflation it means that things are going well and you got nothing to worry about. But now I'd probably take a closer look at those Fairfax hedges.
I think the banks are rallying today because Elizabeth Warren won't be the Chairwoman of the Senate Finance Committee.
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Just think. In four years Hillary will run against Trump again and we can have a repeat of this whole election season! What fun.
No way, after this you have the Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Democratic Party. You're not gonna get a center candidate.
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Pessimistic scenario: Recession to depression. Trump organizes the Trump-shirts. Free press suppressed. Next election cancelled. Possibly martial law. In short: fascist state in US.
Well if you take Keynesianism seriously a large massive tax cut should massively stimulate the economy and lead to a huge boom. The greater worry now is inflation...not depression. Paul Krugman should love Trump...he argued against austerity for years and for more stimulus. Now he is about to get what he always wanted.
I've been thinking about that quite a bit. Basically no one can know what's gonna happen because Trump is all over the place. The stimulus helps if the money goes into the real economy and is spent. So
1. The infrastructure plan. This will definitely help the economy. It's gonna be spent and create jobs.
2. The tax cut. Not so much help because it's geared to mostly high incomes. So most of the tax cut will be saved not spent
3. With Trump coming in will businesses cut investment due to uncertainty?
4. If Trump starts a trade war there will be job losses with maybe not so many corresponding gains. Aerospace sector (coincidentally the largest US export sector) comes to mind as greatly at risk.
Also how do you pass a large public spending effort, with a tax cut, and the resulting blow up of the deficit with a republican congress? Will there be draconian cuts to public spending? If so that's hugely contraction. The worst case scenario is abandoning the infrastructure plan cause he can't get it through Congress, then passing the tax cut offset by large cuts in public spending.
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It's never a good idea to underestimate the USA.
Most comments here either confirm or cause me to disgree. But this comment is a real eye-opener.
I don't even know what that means. The reason the whole world is in shock today is because they're not underestimating the USA.
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About banks or BRK?
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So weird that banks went up. When I was going to bed and futures were tanking. I was thinking about the portfolio. How the election influences it and how to position it further. I was most worries about the banks and Berkshire. Now the banks are going through the roof. I may still be right to be concerned about the banks but the market at least today does not share my concerns.
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The analysis on this election will be interesting. Polls were wrong by 2-3 points on average, worse if not for the few LA Times poll.
Was it that people were afraid to give their true leaning? The problem with that is the polls were wrong on the Senate races too. I don't see how the argument holds up. No major reason to be embarrassed to vote R in NC, PA, WI, MO, etc. Maybe the Trump supporter just didn't participate in the polls.
Was it late undecideds? Trump did run hard hitting and I thought effective ads the last week.
Was it a poor job by the Clinton campaign? They spent heavily in OH, FL and NC and little in states they knew Trump needed and was targeting demographically (rust belt ex OH). She didn't target just what she needed to win, she tried to win and swing the Senate. Was it just a case of overreach?
Or was it the recent American "tradition" of Presidential change every 8 years? Ike, Kennedy/Johnson, Nixon/Ford, Carter only 4 but he stunk, Reagan/Bush an unusually long 12 years, Clinton, Bush 43, Obama.
I think you probably nailed it with your post. It was probably a combination of all you mentioned.
Yes there is a "tradition to switch after 8 years". Yes, they were probably sloppy in the mid-west. It was clear that they have a problem in Ohio. If you have a problem in Ohio you should be worried about Michigan. Wisconsin is a real head scratcher They lost by 27,000 votes, so it was tight. But Obama won it 4 years ago with Paul Ryan on the R ticket.
As for the polls, they were definitely off somewhat. I don't think that it was the silent Trump voter or people afraid to give their true leaning. Polling organizations collect the responses and they they pass it through proprietary turnout models. The secret sauce if you wish. Those models are based on a lot of things including past election turnouts and are the main reason why polls differ from each other. So if you have an election where turnout of non-college degree whites is slightly higher than the model and the black turnout is slightly lower than the model you get basically what just happened.
I would say that the number of undecideds seemed weirdly high. It's hard for me to believe that after such a long campaign with such high profile candidates you would have so many undecideds at the end. So there may be something there.
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She's not gonna win it. Wisconsin is done.
Trump and portfolio impacts
in General Discussion
Posted
I'm not changing anything for now. Of course the post election rally made buying things more difficult. So I took the foot of the pedal in buying banks for example. But that has more to do with price/value rather than the election.
In my view you can't make any changes until you see what policies he will actually implement before you do anything.
For example if the infrastructure bill passes that is very good. But if he passes top heavy tax cuts that won't be very good. Then it gets to the implementation. His proposals would blow a titanic size whole in the deficit. So they're probably going to be scaled down. Also there have to be some cuts somewhere. If the cuts come from social security/medicare (very popular idea with congress republicans) or if health care costs start to get out of control then there will be impacts. Consumer products is probably one sector that's gonna be first to get hit with others to follow.
But for now all we can do is sit and wait.