rb
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Posts posted by rb
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I haven't spent much time reading airline 10ks. But maybe the the ROICs are (artificially?) high because of aircraft leases?
I agree that the economics of airlines have gotten better. But I think that's mainly due to lower capacity/number of players. Whether that's sustainable depends on whether there are higher barriers to entry now. I don't think there are.
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I agree. But I wonder how Trudeau can back off on the carbon tax and not lose face. I also think Trump tends to look favorably towards Canada and that Mexico is his primary target for the time being. Also - people can say what they want about NAFTA, but every agreement has benefits to both sides. It is easy to use it as a target politically, but when it comes down to the nitty gritty there has to be advantages to the US as well in that agreement.
I'm not that worried about NAFTA. The fact is that the US has plenty of benefits already from Canada-US free trade. Moreover a lot of the benefit goes to places in the mid-west. They may want all the benefit and none of the cost but that's not really how it works. Canada also has a history of retaliating hard in trade wars so I'm sure they have that in mind.
Now whether the trade negotiations will be conducted by competent people who use facts, figures, and all that is a separate issue.
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Here's Bill Gross' investor newsletter. I'm not one of his biggest fans but I think he has a lot of good points.
https://www.janus.com/insights/bill-gross-investment-outlook
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I disagree. Take the original "ham sandwich company" - Coke. Coke has been run by Roberto Goizueta who was a fantastic CEO. After Goizueta passed away Coke has been run by a series of ham sandwiches. Starting with ham sandwich extraordinaire - Doug Ivester. Nevertheless Coke shareholders has still done quite well. I believe they would have done better if they had better leadership.
On way Coke shareholders did poorly is by buying it in the late 90s, early 00s. But then if you buy pay 70x EPS it's not really the CEO's fault.
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I don't think there is any business that CAN be run by idiots however there are businesses currently/have been run by idiots. This is a useless thread as I highly doubt you understand the inner workings of any company.
+1. Buffett's view while attractive is hard to build a consistent case for. In particular, a high-margin low-capital business like KO or See's or DVA is just so darn tempting to lever up. So I would say that a great CEO can't make a great business out of one with unfavorable economics, but a poor CEO can definitely screw up a business with great economics. Then you need a new CEO (and new investors) to come in and clean up :)
For sure that even a great business will no do as well under a poor CEO as it would under a good one. The difference is that a great business can be put back on track when a new CEO comes in to clean up the mess. For a mediocre business a poor CEO is a life threatening event.
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Don't give them any ideas.
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Yes, notice how using that 13g Warren's SEC file id number is 28-554, same as id4 on BRks 13f? Keep going in those 13Gs and you find out that Berkshire's SEC id is 028-4545
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Bet on what? That the SEC forms are incorrect?
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It's in the form header. Manager 4 is Buffett Warren E.
Berkshire proper is not listed because it doesn't own securities. The securities are owned by the subs. Mainly the insurance subs.
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Pretty much. I like Russo's style a lot. Great guy to have a beer with too.
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from the 13f. Ownership id code 4 are the PAs.
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My big thoughts about this are:
1. The airlines are also bought by Buffett's PAs. Are T&T tasked with trading in WB's PAs? Not sure either way. Other T&T stocks appear in the PAs.
2. They bought way more American stock than the other ones. This is induces worries.
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Something tells me that in the near future Mr. Market will behave in such a way that investment opportunities will become available in Mexico. As such I thought we should maybe put together a list of high quality Mexican companies along the lines of which we like: established, good moat, shareholder friendly, good management, long runway, etc.
I'll go first: FEMSA
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USA hopefully.
No hope needed; the US has been run by idiots for decades.
+5
I'd also like o add to the list every alcohol company. But specifically AB Inbev, Heineken, Diageo and Pernot Ricard.
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Here's my question. If they didn't return that excess capital > net income, would that still be tax exempt at the company level? As long as they pay out all of their net income?
I'm confused. what should be tax exempt? Capital?
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They basically returned capital.
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Lol, yea. That's what the dems and H got wrong. They thought that there was this big center. Turns out they were wrong. It's basically you, me, and Ken Bone. Oh, and the armadillos.
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https://www.ft.com/content/ef21b3c0-a80d-11e6-8898-79a99e2a4de6
"In Michigan and Wisconsin, the two states that arguably swung the election, Mrs Clinton received roughly 300,000 fewer votes than Mr Obama did, suggesting that the president’s supporters either stayed at home or cast their votes for Mr Trump or a third-party candidate."Go figure! Howard Marks
https://www.oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-source/memos/go-figure.pdf
Theres too many choice quotes in Marks memo. Im a big fan of him because he's brutally honest.
I read the memo. I don't think that it was brutal. I think it was honest and pragmatic. Now reality may be brutal, but that's another thing.
His conclusions are to the point as well. Big changes are afoot in democratic party. It will be vastly different in the future and a lot more progressive.
What's really amazing to me is that the transformation on the left is happening in an almost identical manner as it did on the right just with an 8 year lag.
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Great Question!
Nestle
Care to elaborate?
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Yea that was classic Buffett. Praising everyone and not saying much by saying a lot. He did seem very uncomfortable especially during the Wells part.
My guess is that these awkward situations will happen more and more as Berkshire grows. On the Wells thread someone mentioned aggressive sales tactics at Kerby vacuum cleaners. Well nobody's heard of nor do they care much about Kerby vacuum cleaners. But an awful lot of people are familiar with the elephant businesses.
As Berkshire matures into this new era they will have to redefine their governance and sadly their communications.
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Yea, I don't think BRK is in danger of buying Delta. But still, the purchase of airlines is over $1 billion that's not exactly insignificant.
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Indeed.
When I was younger in the 1990s I was thinking of all the stories that my grandparents were saying about wars and big events and life experiences. I was thinking boy when I talk to my grandkids I'll be so boring because now all the problems are solved, everything is right, and we're all living our good, boring lives without much excitement.
Boy was I wrong! I think in the past 15 years we've had enough interesting times to last a lifetime. Can we please go back to a good, boring place where our biggest problem is that the president got a blow job? I have enough stories to tell my grand kids.
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Something that confuses me. How can Trump turn over his businesses interests to his children, shouldn't the businesses be put into a blind trust? And now Trumps wants his children to have secret security clearances.
There is no rule that a president has to put his affairs in a blind trust. That was more of a best practices thing. Kind of like disclosing your tax returns. Given everything that has happened I don't see why anyone should be surprised or confused by any of what's happened or what will come to pass.
Reduction in Equity Hedges to 50%
in Fairfax Financial
Posted
Nah... S&P is really liquid.