rb

Hahahahhah .... Hahahahhaha That never happens if you're a rational investor or a value investor. In my career I once got a little retard, like 10%-20% retard and I thanked the heaves for it. If I ever get full 100% retard I buy beers for the whole board. You once got a little retard or your name got a little retard? I am not looking to go retard. I want my name to go a little retard. Sorry, I wasn't clear. I didn't go retard. My name went a little retard. It felt awesome. The previous day I was getting margin calls and shit because of it. Nut now that you mention it I was ready to go a little retard when it happened. A great party definitely happened the next night.

What do you love about the tech? For a company with an R&D budget of their size (compared to Intel) it's impressive the lineup of chips and graphics cards they have put out the past few years. They have proven to be competitive with Intel both on price and performance. GPU Radeon 5700 series is currently the best bang for your buck from a gaming perspective (unless your budget is unlimited). Dr. Lisa T. Su is a great CEO and also recently joined the Cisco board (January). I think she does a good job evading bloat and keeping the pipeline focused on smart innovations. That's fair enough. Thanks. I have serious doubts though.

Hahahahhah .... Hahahahhaha That never happens if you're a rational investor or a value investor. In my career I once got a little retard, like 10%-20% retard and I thanked the heaves for it. If I ever get full 100% retard I buy beers for the whole board.

Indeed. Hey check this out: https://robintrack.net/popularity_changes

What do you love about the tech?

If a doctor treated 350 of 350 patients successfully that is a good data point. A normal person when they go to a doctor, they would be interested in how many cases the doctor treated and how many were successful. How do you know how successful he would have been without it without a control group? That, and given the doctor I'd need a lot more than her word before this even becomes and anecdote, much less a data point.

It looks like David Poppe took over or is at least heavily involved in Giverny now. Not sure which one it is. Didn't do too much digging. Edit: The we got out of the fraud before it popped as opposed to the other guys isn't very confidence inspiring. Though I don't know what weight Giverny had in VRX.

So it seems that The Crew is back to hawking HCQ and trying to discredit Fauci. They have a new favourite doctor now who's a total whackadoodle. Loves HCQ and there's something in there about having dream sex with demons making you sick. I shit you not. If this person is a real doctor, as in has a medical license, I have some concerns.

I don't have any doubts that HII and GD are gonna be around building ships for a long time. The question is around is around growth. Will there be any? Will the Navy have more ships in the future? I'm leaning the less ships way (historical trend) though not many less ships. I'm certain there won't be a meaningful increase in the number of ships. So then NII and GD are kinda working the run rate of the US navy, replacing ships as they come due. Little growth if any. In such an environment the multiple for such a business should be rather modest.

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor. You mean they have more cross immunity to other coronaviruses? Not necessarily cross immunity to viruses. Just a stronger immune system and a better response. If you're living in squalor you'll generally have a much better immune system and better immune response than some fat guy that drives everywhere and washes regularly. It's also a big part of the reason why there are less people with allergies in developing countries. Allergies are over reaction of immune system. Your evidence says poorer people have less immunity. Covid-19 is much more prevalent in lower income groups in US, which is shown in NYC. But that is usually explained because of crowding in smaller housing. But that is not the case in India. Slums with high crowding have lower Covid-19. Yes allergies are an over reaction of the immune system. But you're looking this in an over-simplified way. Like in any fight/battle the level of strength is not all that matters. Tactics matter a great deal as well. So the guy who grew up a (relatively) rich life in America who's mom was always there with Purell go clean the germs may have a strong immune system because he is healthy and not malnourished etc... But the Indian who grew up in squalor playing in dirt and shit with not a bar of soap in sight has an immune system that is better equipped to deal with threats because it has been exposed to so many pathogens. That's why the rich guy's immune system goes like Holy Shit! A nut, Red Alert, DEFCON 1! and the poor guy's immune system goes like, oh a nut, that looks yummy. To put this another way the rich guy's immune system is like a white guy that attends private school, goes to the gym 3 times a week to pump lift weights for 2 hours, drinks protein shakes. The poor guy's immune system is like a dirt-under-fingernails street fighter from the bad side of Jakarta. Christopher over there looks pretty impressive. But which one of the two do you want backing you in a dark alley fight?

A thing that's not discussed here is that when you move into high net worth (and a lot of these active managers manage high net worth) out-performance is not the be all and end all. Performance is important, that's for sure. But the fit between the client and the IM in terms of temperament and risk taking is important as well. What the money goes into is important. I don't know for how long has underperformed but I don't think that Gates is about to fire him and go all index.

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor. You mean they have more cross immunity to other coronaviruses? Not necessarily cross immunity to viruses. Just a stronger immune system and a better response. If you're living in squalor you'll generally have a much better immune system and better immune response than some fat guy that drives everywhere and washes regularly. It's also a big part of the reason why there are less people with allergies in developing countries.

Valuation doesn’t make a lot of difference when your thesis is right, but it sure makes a lot of difference when the thesis is wrong. To buy a little by at least when you like the business but consider the valuation stretched, with the intent to buy more if valuation becomes more favorable is a reasonable approach. It does goes counter the currently prevailing wisdom to never average down though. It's hard for me to add to MSFT when I have a cost base around $24. I was buying around 7-8x earnings back then. 35 seems like a kings ransom. I also owned some MSFT at $24 and sold at $40. That’s deep value investing.... Today’s MSFT equivalent could well be INTC, if management can turn it around. You would get the rising earnings and rising multiple Goldilocks. The rising multiple was responsible for half the returns with MSFT (eyeballing this roughly). Yea I sold a bit MSFT at 40 and some at 80. But it was a LARGE stake to begin with. It was kind of a relief valve after getting hate mail and taking grenades in the trenches for a few years on that. But I don't think that the MSFT situation is similar to INTC. When I bought MSFT it was during the everything is gonna be Apple thing. For some reason nobody noticed that the company was making anything besides Windows and that MSFT was really an enterprise software company. Apple was doing well, but at MSFT windows was pretty stable like -3% and still barfing a river of cash. On the other hand Office, Windows Server and SQL Server were growing gangbusters like 20% a year and they've been doing that for a while. SQL Server was doing to Oracle what Office did to Lotus Notes and they were in full cloud mode too. Intel looks pretty cheap I have to admit. But they also have some troubles which MSFT didn't really have. The business is fundamentally different as well. The switching costs are much, much higher for enterprise tech compared to chips. INTC has to constantly spend real and meaningful money on CapEx to stay on course. They also make things and have unit costs so not as much operational leverage as software. Also due to the industry I can't see INTC booking 20% growth year after year. They're more constrained.

Cause they don't watch CNN.

Lol, speaking of "the incident" eh. I didn't know he started another shop.

That's more of a saying. Not so much as a law, you know...

I honestly don't think many people know about this. All I keep on reading is that the expanded unemployment ends at the end of the month. But it already ended on Friday. They were about 4% of GDP. In such a shit economy you figure, conservatively a 1.5 multiplier. So that's a 6% GDP hit. No biggie, just a GFC hit on top of the pile of crap we're in right now. I see reports of talks that they'll maybe just cut to $200 from $600. So that'll only be a 4% GDP hit. So no worries. Dow 36,000!

You got money in Baupost? BALLER!!

Pretty sure he isn't talking "outside money" shall we say lol.

Valuation doesn’t make a lot of difference when your thesis is right, but it sure makes a lot of difference when the thesis is wrong. To buy a little by at least when you like the business but consider the valuation stretched, with the intent to buy more if valuation becomes more favorable is a reasonable approach. It does goes counter the currently prevailing wisdom to never average down though. It's hard for me to add to MSFT when I have a cost base around $24. I was buying around 7-8x earnings back then. 35 seems like a kings ransom.

I like Tom Russo. Don't think he's taking money but I'm not sure. Burgundy is a pretty good shop out of Toronto. They take money. I would have said Sequoia as well before, you know..., "the incident".

And here we go almost right on cue with the politicization of vaccines. https://www.axios.com/trump-coronavirus-vaccines-therapeutics-c6ce097a-bdea-410a-b02b-211574a3e9aa.html

It could be stronger immune systems due to living in squalor.

So you figure that it went from 24% in April in NYC to 80% now?

There were very large outdoor protests...in NY, MN, DC, Germany, UK...but FL/AZ/TX? Not really...But much easier to blame this all on BLM/Antifa the convenient bogeyman Let them pound it in. Btw protests in late May/early June don’t explain why cases keep going up in late July either... Don't forget that the virus has a 14 day incubation period after infection. Then you cannot assume that people go to get tested AND get the results on the first day that they start to have symptoms. In my state WA, if I get tested, I have to wait for 3 days to get the results. So assuming that I start to have symptoms and then on day 3 I get worried and get a test, I'll get it back in 3 days, so this will be a confirmed case 3 weeks after infection. In addition, CDC's data has a one week latency in reporting. Sure but if you get sick you pretty reliably end up in a hospital. So do you notice that large spike in hospitalizations in NY/MN/PA/DC around 3 weeks after late may/early june? Neither do i. I don't know about MN/PA/DC, but NY probably should continue to trend down because they already have herd immunity in April. My friend who worked in a hospital there said by early April, they actually already had 24% of the whole population tested antibody positive. My prediction is that similar things will happen in FL and TX. By the end of August, things will improve dramatically. I have high conviction on this. I'm sorry to tell you this. But even if the 24% number is correct, that is way, way short of even heard protection let alone heard immunity.