orthopa

This is why the FnF has issued the forbearence guidedance, new proposed fee, etc. Has been dicussed in detail here in this thread over the last couple of months.

I just saw this now also. How does this affect anything if at all? Is there such a thing as a split decision with one justice out or would it go to Roberts for the tie breaker? The never ending GSE saga.

if Mnuchin settles collins wouldn't the fhfa director removal go away also - and so a challenge to his constitutionality would start anew? Common sense based on what Calabria wants to do would be to try to delay his removal in anyway possible and for as long as possible. History with the court cases has shown the common sense outcome seems to never come. A trump win is a double edge sword, Calabria can stay longer but there then there is no rush and we right back to where we are now if not less regards to a sense of urgency.

Calabria actually did address this in the hearing. He said the rule was supposed to be out in March and was delayed by the pandemic. In a late February interview he said that the rule would be released "in the coming weeks, months" so while he did cover his bases there, it does sound like he was ready to release it earlier. To be fair, that is still 3 months after the end of 2019, and the delays are certainly frustrating. At this point, you either trust the administration to get things done in the lame duck period or you don't. And if you don't, it probably isn't worth holding. I think the shares will take a moderate to large short-term dip if Biden wins, but will have a similar-sized rally if Trump wins, so I'm just going to hold through the election. Edit: this doesn't take into account the lopsidedness of Biden and Trump's respective chances of winning, but if there's anything I learned from the 2016 presidential election it's that I have become very hesitant to ever give a major-party presidential candidate a less than 45% chance of winning no matter what the polls say. I should clarify that my optimism decreasing is more so in the speed of things happening, not so much the end game. I think at the end of this jr preferred gets par and I’m stubborn enough to hold till the end. Maybe its the 7 years of waiting since I started accumulating a position wearing on me. :o Its hard to figure out if Calabria is pandering to these ignorant bought for politician with their questions or really means what he says. That’s exactly why a timeline some have discussed with unilateral (non election determined) action by the end of the year is becoming more doubtful. Calabria said he would begin discussions with Mnuchin about the NWS in May of 2019. There was the Sept 2019 amendment but the Treasurys liquidation preference was increased along with capital retention. That being said Calabria and Mnuchin have been discussing an amendment for 16 months! Sheesh. In prepared speeches we have been told the time to build capital is now probably 6 times. We have been told the time to act is now 3-4 times. A bright spot was the firm capital rule comment period timeline. Maybe its just from being bludgeoned into submission by disappointment and missed guidelines for a year and a half (4 years including mnuchins comments day after election) but I don’t see a reason to be optimistic yet timeline wise. If Trump wins and the case is argued in front of the SC is there not an expectation that this will not come down to the days before a ruling if at all for a settlement? If we remember the en banc decision conveniently came the day after the treasury plan after being delayed for months. Maybe its coincidence and of no significance or maybe there is a lot of higher level stuff going on that "they" will take down to the wire that us peons are not privy too. That being said when this is all said and done count me out on the next heavily government involved investment. The discount that the preferred may have traded with at any point in time due to government involvement, delay, court etc etc FWIW is/was highly appropriate and warranted.

I tend to agree with this. Calabria has repeatedly stated that releasing the GSEs from conservatorship will be process dependent, not timeline dependent. Reading through the comments for the reproposed Capital Rule there is much discussion about CRTs being strongly disincentivized. According to the US Treasury’s September 2019 Housing Reform Plan, CRTs are to be encouraged. I expect this part of the rule to be rewritten. I also expect many other parts of the rule to be rewritten too. This will all take time. Government doesn’t do anything quickly. My optimism is starting to wain with speed of things. All it took was to remember the captial rule was supposed to be published for comment by the end of 2019 and here we are ~1 year since Calabria made that comment.

I wonder if this even gets argued. Granted the effects are huge money and wide ranging but in light of the comment period ending for the capital rule, a PSPA that can change with the stroke of a pen, why would the gov even want to argue this case? It seems a whole lot of time, money and risk gets taken off the table for all parties involved with a final PSPA amendment. Very tight tight time line here with capital rule comment period ending, election, arguments in SC and inauguration. Crazy 4th Q coming. If Trump wins, the case probably goes through verdict. If Trump loses, let's hope it doesn't even get argued. If Trump wins you maybe right, or any settlement goes out way further then before inauguration. F*** me. Looking for some sort of closure with this investment is never ending!

what do you interpret by this? lower capital levels to start/raise capital then raise requirements over time?

I wonder if this even gets argued. Granted the effects are huge money and wide ranging but in light of the comment period ending for the capital rule, a PSPA that can change with the stroke of a pen, why would the gov even want to argue this case? It seems a whole lot of time, money and risk gets taken off the table for all parties involved with a final PSPA amendment. Very tight tight time line here with capital rule comment period ending, election, arguments in SC and inauguration. Crazy 4th Q coming.

Anyone have the link to Calabria's house testimony today? EDIT: Found it https://financialservices.house.gov/calendar/eventsingle.aspx?EventID=406867 That is quite an interesting title for the hearing. Oxymoron one would say.

First public listening session was today. Anyone speak or listen? I looked but couldnt find a link any where to listen when I looked briefly this am.

The entire duration of this investment would agree with you but a part of me disagrees. Mainly due to Calabrias recent letter to Brown not extending the comment period. He easily could have extended the comment period and I think the two upcoming webinars are a way for the public to have direct input and hopefully stomp out the notion that the rule was rushed/voices were not heard. FHFA seems to have already narrowed down the sticking points to the rule to two topics. Granted not simple topics but my feeling is other then ironing these out the rule is mostly done IMO. FWIW the conspiracy theorist in me says the capital rule is mostly written, the 4th PSPA amendment has been decided already and JPM and MS have already submitted variations of CRP. Otherwise what have they been doing for the past 3-4 months? I dont think a capital rule finalized by end of October is out of the question. As Calabria has pointed out the rule is a variation of the previous proposal that has been a known entity for years. After being public for 3-4 months, a webinar in the spring, and an additional listening session after the comment period closed is it out of the question to think 6 weeks is enough to get this finalized? As I said before history would say your right and Im wrong but since this it seems this whole thing was shelved last year due to the election I have to believe the trade off of that was a compressed timeline at the end.

With trump coming back in the polls I have read many election experts expecting that we may not know who the president is the day after the election or for maybe even weeks after due to challenges, mail in voting etc. Aside from who you want or think will win I think this heavily plays in FnF favor. We all know time is of the essence after the election if there is a Biden win and I don't think Calabria has the lee way to wait until early December to figure out who the president will be and start the process. In the event we are stuck not knowing who the president is for a couple of weeks if not decided on election night I think Calabria will have to act with the assumption Biden may win if its too close to call to keep things on track.

Do we know for sure if its 60 days after the comment period to finalize the rule? His letter today makes me believe he would like to keep any other timeline expectations in order. If so that puts us just before the election. Then MC can ask for CRP from FnF.

Comment period not extended. Cue the timeline Mark.

50% ish here. More convinced end game will be positive, ever since the otting comments the biggest risk has been time for this to execute IMO. Not permanent loss of capital.

To summarize: March/April Orthopa: "Contact tracing is a waste of time! Everyone's already infected." (There are single digit deaths in America.) New Zealand/Taiwan/S.Korea/British Columbia: Do lots of testing and contact tracing America: Minimal tests Trump: "There's no problem (and if there were, it would be a Blue State problem, so that's actually a good thing!)" August New Zealand/Taiwan/S.Korea/British Columbia: The virus has been mostly contained. A tiny number of people have died. America: Millions infected. 200,000 people die. Trump: "We should do less testing. That's what I diagnose to be the main problem here." Orthopa: "There's too many people infected! Contact tracing is impossible, because while almost every other country has used it successfully, America hasn't! And Canadians are paranoid scared bitches! And asymptomatic people can pass on the virus! So there's no reason to test." RichardGibbons: "Should I say that infectious asymptomatic people might suggest one should do more testing, not less? … … Nah." Orthopa: "Dick." Your the one still confused and asking dumb questions Dick, not me.

To summarize: March/April Orthopa: "Contact tracing is a waste of time! Everyone's already infected." (There are single digit deaths in America.) New Zealand/Taiwan/S.Korea/British Columbia: Do lots of testing and contact tracing America: Minimal tests Trump: "There's no problem (and if there were, it would be a Blue State problem, so that's actually a good thing!)" August New Zealand/Taiwan/S.Korea/British Columbia: The virus has been mostly contained. A tiny number of people have died. America: Millions infected. 200,000 people die. Trump: "We should do less testing. That's what I diagnose to be the main problem here." Orthopa: "There's too many people infected! Contact tracing is impossible, because while almost every other country has used it successfully, America hasn't! And Canadians are paranoid scared bitches! And asymptomatic people can pass on the virus! So there's no reason to test." RichardGibbons: "Should I say that infectious asymptomatic people might suggest one should do more testing, not less? … … Nah." Orthopa: "Dick." Please stop holding orthopa accountable for all the claims he’s made on here that were patently false! Where’s his savior Gregmal to come to the rescue and claim instead the opposite—that he was right all along??? Up is down. 2 + 2 = 7. You could do the right thing and hold yourself accountable and admit your a charlatan but I dont even think you have time to come up for air off of Taleb.

Classic. Xenophobic rant when called out for using misleading stats. Nearly every contribution on this board from Canadian members has been xenophobic. Where have you been?

I shit on US? Oh no, brother, you have completely misunderstood. I am here in the hope that the glorious rays of wisdom of The Greatest President Trumph and his disciples could delighten us all. A single word of this genius and the country will stand still in amazement and awe as you surely do. How could I miss the opportunity to be present in such momentous times and places and hear from such devoted followers of the Most Beautiful Leader? All Hail El Presidente! I can understand why you didnt answer the question, dont worry. It takes a special type of person to move to a country, benefit from it then go anonymously online and piss up the leg of such country. Its great you dont like Trump and all but it cant be that bad. You didnt leave yet.

Maybe, or maybe not. The president is basically saying, "Hey, do less testing" and there is less testing. So, are tests declining because there is less demand for tests because of fewer symptomatic people? Or are tests declining because lives don't matter and it's politically convenient for the number of tests to decline? I'm not sure what the answer is, or if it's even possible to determine the answer. (e.g. I think it would be hard to detect a bunch of "patriotic" Trump-supporting doctors to stop ordering tests.) Maybe its because 30-40% of people are asymptomatic and the virus is so widespread its a complete waste of time? How useless is a testing protocol that constantly misses asymptomatic people because they have no indication/reason to get tested? Explain to me exactly what all the testing in the US has done? How many lives do you estimate have been saved and by what mechanism? It cant be contract tracing, because that shit aint happening. Dick your better then this we went over how useless all this testing was back in March/April and your still perplexed!!!

Curious -- are you American? Good question. 3/4 of the respondents in this thread live in Canada and are infatuated by a political system they have no input on and constantly shit on the US. Their voice doesn't count Thank god. They cant get enough of it though. They will say its because they hate Trump or cant believe how stupid we are but they really know that the US butters their bread so are eager participants in the discussion. I think a great majority are still butt hurt because Trump had the balls to go after NAFTA or wouldn't share masks! Either way they just come to this thread and bitch about a country that they highly benefit from. If you took out all the posts in the thread of paranoid scared Canadians bitching about Americans it would be probably 15 pages long. Eh?

Hold on there just a minute. You make accusations of cherry picking the data then you do exactly that. Instead of comparing population density of the U.S., you use NYC. And you do that because the comparison between the two countries doesn’t support your argument. NZ population density: 15 people /sqK US population density: 36 people /sqK NOT 38,424 / sqK Pretty dishonest trying to compare the country to NYC. How about sticking to the facts for a change. Your right, my fault. The US is extremely homogeneous and no way the population density of NYC contributed in a negative fashion to death counts, GDP loss, and the spread of the virus through out the country. Thanks!!! This is a hilarious interaction. Orthopa: "I'll spin some numbers while simultaneously accusing someone else of spinning!" <Gregmal predictably validates the approach by accusing some nebulous left of spin> Orthopa: "Haha! I'm brilliant! Nobody realizes what I did!" cwericb: "Umm, dude, you know you're basically comparing a country to a city? Can you at least pretend to honestly analyse the situation?" Orthopa: "Darn.... Umm, can't admit fault, gotta go on the offence! Well, um, New York City has lots of people which is bad in a pandemic, and that's completely the point that I was trying to make in my other post! And you're just stupid for not seeing it, and deserve lots of abuse!" Bravo. The thread is now more entertaining than informative. "NYC was so botched due to failed leadership as evidenced by huge number of cases"...but at the same time: "the only reason NZ has low cases because it has such low pop density!" (don't tell these folks about the densities in TX/FL vs NY/NJ...) "NY covid deaths are so high and show how badly libs failed" ...but at the same time: "the NY covid deaths were not real, but faked on the death certificates" Dude. Making two contradictory wrong claims at the same time is a sign of truly stable genius. Trump is proud of his children. Jurgis, question for you and other Europeans who constantly shit on the US. You live in the US right? Why? If this place is such a shithole why dont you head on back to Eastern Europe? Why are you here exactly, work, love, forced?

Hold on there just a minute. You make accusations of cherry picking the data then you do exactly that. Instead of comparing population density of the U.S., you use NYC. And you do that because the comparison between the two countries doesn’t support your argument. NZ population density: 15 people /sqK US population density: 36 people /sqK NOT 38,424 / sqK Pretty dishonest trying to compare the country to NYC. How about sticking to the facts for a change. Your right, my fault. The US is extremely homogeneous and no way the population density of NYC contributed in a negative fashion to death counts, GDP loss, and the spread of the virus through out the country. Thanks!!! This is a hilarious interaction. Orthopa: "I'll spin some numbers while simultaneously accusing someone else of spinning!" <Gregmal predictably validates the approach by accusing some nebulous left of spin> Orthopa: "Haha! I'm brilliant! Nobody realizes what I did!" cwericb: "Umm, dude, you know you're basically comparing a country to a city? Can you at least pretend to honestly analyse the situation?" Orthopa: "Darn.... Umm, can't admit fault, gotta go on the offence! Well, um, New York City has lots of people which is bad in a pandemic, and that's completely the point that I was trying to make in my other post! And you're just stupid for not seeing it, and deserve lots of abuse!" Bravo. The thread is now more entertaining than informative. "NYC was so botched due to failed leadership as evidenced by huge number of cases"...but at the same time: "the only reason NZ has low cases because it has such low pop density!" (don't tell these folks about the densities in TX/FL vs NY/NJ...) "NY covid deaths are so high and show how badly libs failed" ...but at the same time: "the NY covid deaths were not real, but faked on the death certificates" Dalal, there you are. How are things at the clinic, hospital, or where you practice medicine? Any boots on the ground feedback from ground zero or are you still spinning yarn in your apartment in NYC?

Hold on there just a minute. You make accusations of cherry picking the data then you do exactly that. Instead of comparing population density of the U.S., you use NYC. And you do that because the comparison between the two countries doesn’t support your argument. NZ population density: 15 people /sqK US population density: 36 people /sqK NOT 38,424 / sqK Pretty dishonest trying to compare the country to NYC. How about sticking to the facts for a change. Your right, my fault. The US is extremely homogeneous and no way the population density of NYC contributed in a negative fashion to death counts, GDP loss, and the spread of the virus through out the country. Thanks!!! This is a hilarious interaction. Orthopa: "I'll spin some numbers while simultaneously accusing someone else of spinning!" <Gregmal predictably validates the approach by accusing some nebulous left of spin> Orthopa: "Haha! I'm brilliant! Nobody realizes what I did!" cwericb: "Umm, dude, you know you're basically comparing a country to a city? Can you at least pretend to honestly analyse the situation?" Orthopa: "Darn.... Umm, can't admit fault, gotta go on the offence! Well, um, New York City has lots of people which is bad in a pandemic, and that's completely the point that I was trying to make in my other post! And you're just stupid for not seeing it, and deserve lots of abuse!" yawn.

Do the demographics, land mass size, population, population density etc too. NYC has a population density of 38,424 per square kilometer NZ has a population density of 15 people per square kilometer. Complete waste of time even looking at this comparison. Why dont you post a twitter link on the data from Antarctica to really hammer the point home. Hold on there just a minute. You make accusations of cherry picking the data then you do exactly that. Instead of comparing population density of the U.S., you use NYC. And you do that because the comparison between the two countries doesn’t support your argument. NZ population density: 15 people /sqK US population density: 36 people /sqK NOT 38,424 / sqK Pretty dishonest trying to compare the country to NYC. How about sticking to the facts for a change. Your right, my fault. The US is extremely homogeneous and no way the population density of NYC contributed in a negative fashion to death counts, GDP loss, and the spread of the virus through out the country. Thanks!!!